Morrison & Co Infrastructure Market Perspectives. Infratil Investor Day 2013

Transcription

1 Morrison & Co Infrastructure Market Perspectives Infratil Investor Day 2013

2 Making investment predictions is a risky business Dow Jones industrial average: Source: Bloomberg 2

3 Agenda 1. What will shape demand for infrastructure? 2. Where will the capital come from (and how will it be priced)? 3. How is Morrison & Co positioning for the next infrastructure wave? 3

4 Globally, US$4t of new infrastructure investment is required every year Drivers of demand for new infrastructure Rise of emerging markets middle-class, urbanisation Changing patterns of energy demand & supply Globalisation and growing trade volumes Climate change and emissions constraints Aging populations Historic underinvestment in the developed world Increasing water scarcity New social infrastructure for changing demographics Our objective is to uncover infrastructure opportunities from these trends that match the geographies and sectors where we have advantage 4

5 Rise of the Middle Class in Emerging Markets 2.7b new middle class consumers in Asia Pacific by 2030 Middle Class Population Billion people Middle Class Spending Power USD Trillion, real PPP Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America North America Europe Change Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America North America Europe Change Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Changing consumption patterns for food, consumer goods and social services driving demand for airports, ports, roads, energy, water and social infrastructure Note: Middle class defined as US$ in purchasing power parity per person per day Source: OECD Development Centre Working Paper No.285, OECD (2010) 5

6 Rise of the middle class in emerging markets Asian growth creates infrastructure opportunities and not just in Asia Forecast growth in global air travel to 2031 CAGR, % AIA international pax by residence Top 5 Countries ex NZ, growth versus total volume year CAGR to Jan China Asia Pac LatAm CIS Europe Nth Amer China Australia 2013 pax Japan USA UK Rise of the middle-class in emerging markets Globalisation & increasing trade flows + = US$500b of investment in Asia Pacific airport & port infrastructure required by 2030 Source: Boeing Market Outlook 2012; AIA Monthly Traffic Updates (Jan 2013, Jan 2010) 6

7 Increasing water scarcity Global water demand to increase 50% by 2030 Water withdrawals (billion m 3 ) 6, Domestic Industry Agriculture 4, ,100 1,500 4,500 Key drivers Growing global population Rise of middle class in emerging markets Consuming more manufactured goods Eating more water-intensive protein US$22 trillion of investment required in water infrastructure by 2030 Source: Charting our Water Future, Water Resources Group (2009); Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (2007) 7

8 Increasing water scarcity Increasing trade in products with embodied water Example: Embodied water in products Litres per kg for food, litres per unit for others Global virtual water trade Gross virtual water flows > 15Gm 3 pa Vegetables 322 Fruits 962 Cereals 3,208 Milk powder 5,000 Chicken 4,325 Pork 5,988 Beef 15,415 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz T-Shirt 4,100 Bed sheet 9,750 Jeans 10,850 Car 400,000 Source: National Water Footprint Accounts, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education 8

9 Increasing water scarcity Creates infrastructure opportunities in NZ Rise of the middle-class in emerging markets Increasing water scarcity + = NZ Irrigation Infrastructure 9

10 Changing patterns of energy demand & supply Almost half of global electricity demand growth driven by China China driving 40% of global increase Global electricity demand, petawatt hours Electricity generation by source Global electricity generation, petawatt hours +89% CAGR +88% ROW +2.6% Fossil Fuels Russia India Western Europe USA China +2.1% +5.5% +1.1% +0.9% +4.2% New Policies scenario Nuclear Hydro Other Renewables Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook

11 Energy demand vs emissions constraints When megatrends collide Air quality in Beijing has mostly stayed above "very unhealthy" and "hazardous" levels for about two weeks. On Tuesday, it hit 517 on an index maintained by the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, which described the pollution as "Beyond Index -Reuters Jan 2013 What are the impacts on Australian pit-to-port infrastructure? What does this mean for global wind turbine prices? 11

12 Social infrastructure shortages Large & growing demand, expanding role for the private sector Globally, US$500b pa is required to build new hospitals, schools & other social infra Driven by long term demographic and economic trends Aging, Urbanisation, Underinvestment Expanding role for the private sector in providing social infrastructure Well-established PPP models in Australia, with a strong future pipeline 20+ projects, A$30bn+ in next 5 years Developing project pipeline in NZ Source: IPA; Bridging the Gap, BCG February 2013; Morrison & Co analysis 12

13 In short, no shortage of demand Massive global demand for new infrastructure Big picture economic and demographic drivers of that demand are well understood The specific infra opportunities that arise from those megatrends can be less obvious Emerging markets growth will also create infrastructure opportunities in Australasia Plus opportunities to acquire existing assets New wave of infrastructure privatisations Private-to-private transfers from banks and builders to long term infrastructure investors Where will the money come from? 13

14 Agenda 1. What will shape demand for infrastructure? 2. Where will the capital come from (and how will it be priced)? 3. How is Morrison & Co positioning for the next infrastructure wave? 14

15 In many developed economies, the public sector cupboard is bare Net public sector debt as a % of GDP % Greece 120% 60% Japan Portugal Italy Ireland United States France United Kingdom Spain Iceland Source: IMF 15

16 How can the public and private sectors work together? Potential for more creative and collaborative approaches Public-private collaboration covers an almost infinite range of models Public & private sectors have always worked together to deliver infrastructure Privatisation is only a small part Collaboration models should be guided by project-specific characteristics not dogma Clear public objectives Appropriate risk allocation Scope for innovation Partnerships between genuine long term investors and government work best 16

17 Growing pools of Pension Fund and SWF capital Pension Assets (US$b): Market End 2000 End 2012 CAGR USA 10,141 16, % Japan 2,418 3, % UK 1,256 2, % Australia 275 1, % Canada 668 1, % Netherlands 441 1, % Switzerland % Germany % Brazil % South Africa % France % Ireland % Hong Kong % Total 16,004 29, % Largest SWFs (US$b): Feb 2013 Market Fund FUM Norway Govt Pension 716 Abu Dhabi ADIA 627 China SAFE 568 Saudi Arabia SAMA 533 China CIC 482 Hong Kong HKMA 299 Kuwait KIA 296 Singapore GIC 248 Russia NWF 176 Singapore Temasek 158 China NSSF 135 Qatar QIA 115 Australia Future Fund 83 Total 4,436 Source: SWF Institute (Feb 2013); Towers Watson, Global Pension Asset Study January

18 are increasing their allocations to infrastructure Global institutional investor infra strategies: % 38% 2% 36% Decrease exposure Keep exposure the same Attracted to long-dated, inflation hedged returns Asset-Liability matching Large Canadian & Australian pension funds leading the way Many establishing dedicated infrastructure investment teams 58% 62% Increase exposure Many other institutions developing infra strategies now Next Months Long Term Typical focus is core developed markets infrastructure Regulated utilities and monopoly assets Limited appetite for greenfield risk Source: Preqin Review of Infrastructure in 2012: Investor Appetite 18

19 Yield-hungry investors have bid up infrastructure prices as bond yields have declined 180 Nth American reg utilities index vs US Govt 10 Yr yield: Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 - BI North American Regulated Integrated Utilities US Government 10 Year Yield Source: Bloomberg; Morrison & Co analysis 19

20 Core infrastructure assets such as regulated utilities have run hottest over the last two years Reflects demand for low risk yield 115 Total return for core vs core+ listed infrastructure: 2011 to 2013 (1) Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13.CORE+ Index.CORE U Index (1) Morrison & Co proprietary indices. Core =mature stable infrastructure companies low/no volume exposure and a strong linkage to CPI via regulatory oversight or contract terms (e.g. regulated water & energy networks) Core+ = infrastructure companies with greater exposure to non-regulated revenues or volume risk (e.g. airports, ports, waste, above rail) Source: Bloomberg; Morrison & Co analysis 20

21 Where to next for infrastructure investors? Staying ahead of the curve to find outperformance in an increasingly hot sector How will the infra market develop? Large and growing demand for greenfield and expansion capital Where will value accrue? Existing holders of infrastructure assets in developed markets SWFs and Pension Funds will continue to increase allocations to core infra Assets with embedded options, offering uncontested reinvestment opportunities These institutions are making cautious steps into more operationally complex infra Greenfield projects, where risk is well understood and managed This will support valuations for mature assets, but won t close the funding gap More complex infra assets, where investors bring operational expertise Infra with exposure to emerging markets growth (not just in emerging markets) 21

22 Agenda 1. What will shape demand for infrastructure? 2. Where will the capital come from (and how will it be priced)? 3. How is Morrison & Co positioning for the next infrastructure wave? 22

23 The Morrison & Co approach to infrastructure Deep analysis and hands-on operating expertise to stay ahead of the curve Our focus Long term macro analysis based on proprietary research into sector megatrends An operator s perspective on due diligence, valuation and investment management Outstanding capital markets execution capabilities across M&A, listed equities and debt Internationally recognised credentials Airports 15 years of privatisation and secondary sales experience in ANZ, Asia and Europe and 70 years direct airport operating experience across the investment team. Energy 100 years of direct utility company experience, successful growth of TrustPower, build of the Lumo Energy business Ports and Terminals Privatisation and operational experience dating back to the late 1980s PPP 30 years of property and PPP experience, strategic partnership with a major Australian construction company, providing access to equity investment opportunities in greenfield projects 23

24 MCO Airport sector views Developed market assets highly valued, growth options emerging Now: WIAL a very strong performer high quality, efficient, solid earnings growth, reinvestment Other Australasian assets tightly held and highly valued as evidenced by Future Fund/AIX transaction Strong demand in recent UK/Europe transactions has made available returns low relative to risk Near Term: Asia Pacific travel growth will drive demand for expansions and privatisations, local investors will seek international partners with operational expertise 24

25 MCO Ports & Terminals sector view Expansion/development opportunities in ports and terminals, Australasian focus Ports Australia s trend towards privatisation will continue and potentially involve those States with little privatisation to date Changes in NZ port ownership will be limited to change prompted by a need for regional infrastructure development Beyond ANZ, port operations with significant export oriented operations with commodity flows continue to show good returns Bulk Liquid Terminals Further expansion of remote area liquid terminals servicing mining in QLD and WA Reconfiguration of oil distribution as refineries close and replaced by oil import terminals in Australia Change of ownership beyond ANZ as upstream and downstream dynamics shift 25

26 MCO Energy sector views Optionality in renewables, shale gas related infrastructure and irrigation Australia and New Zealand SOE privatisation is very good for IFT and TPW (and NZ Inc) Retail pricing will become more commercial, capital investment more disciplined, M&A activity will be on a commercial footing Attractive returns are available through well selected Australian wind development projects Beyond ANZ OECD growth in per capita energy consumption is moderating International policy responses gravitating to a low global carbon price globally led by Europe, Australia and the US A climatic event within the next 10 years could prompt a political response and result in potentially dramatic green policy directions Yield hungry investors pursuing transmission & distribution businesses, regulatory and operational risk can be underestimated 26

27 Meeting the infrastructure challenge Enormous and growing need for infrastructure Investment opportunities in sectors and markets where we have advantage Investors increasingly attracted to the sector Supports the value of existing positions and embedded options Ongoing outperformance will require Operational experience Genuine sector expertise Long term perspective Partnership approach with Government Focus on communities & customers 27