BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE
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1 BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE STEVEN LAM BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES ANALYST BI <GO>, BI LIFEA <GO> APR // 15 // 2014
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 TOPIC: Life Insurers in Developed Japan and Developing China» ASIA INSURANCE MARKET OVERVIEW» LIFE INSURANCE MARKETS CHINA & JAPAN» HEALTH CARE LESS PUBLIC, MORE PRIVATE» BLOOMBERG & BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES
3 ASIA INSURANCE >>>>>>>>>>>>>
4 ASIA INSURANCE OVERVIEW LIFE INSURANCE J-CURVE 4 Penetration (% of GDP) Life insurance - J-curve Taiwan India Thailand Spain Malaysia China Indonesia Philippines Germany South Korea France Singapore US Australia UK HK Japan Density (USD) ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Source: Swiss Re data as of Bloomberg presentation 33 JAPAN: Life insurance density = $4,143; Life insurance penetration = 9.17% CHINA: Life insurance density = $103; Life insurance penetration = 1.70%
5 ASIA INSURANCE OVERVIEW NON-LIFE INSURANCE J-CURVE 5 Penetration (% of GDP) 6.00 Non-life insurance - J-curve 5.00 South Korea US Thailand Malaysia China India Indonesia Philippines HK Taiwan Spain Singapore Japan UK Germany France Australia Density (USD) ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Source: Swiss Re data as of Bloomberg presentation 33 JAPAN: Non-life insurance density = $1,025; Non-life insurance penetration = 2.27% CHINA: Non-life insurance density = $76; Non-life insurance penetration = 1.26%
6 LIFE INSURANCE - JAPAN & CHINA 6 KEY METRICS JAPAN CHINA Population» 127 million» 1,361 million Life insurance premium (2012) Life premium 5yr CAGR ( ) LC» US$524 billion» US$141 billion» 5%» 15% Life premium density (US$)» US$4,143» US$103 Life penetration (% of GDP)» 9.2%» 1.7% Top 3 players by premiums» Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) T&D Holdings (8795 JP) Sony Financial (8729 JP)» China Life (2628 HK) Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) CPIC (2601 HK) Life Expectancy» 79 (men) / 86 (women)» 72 (men) / 76 (women) Health expenditure per capita (US$) Health expenditure as % of GDP» $4,000» $278» 9.3%» 5.2% Public vs. Private split 80% / 20%» 56% / 44% Source: Swiss Re, World Bank, Bloomberg.
7 VALUATION - JAPAN 7 Sector average 6.5% 0.9x 14.2x Data as of April 14, 14 Sector valuation metrics: - ROE FY1: 6.5%, P/B FY1: 0.9x, P/E FY1: 14.2x BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
8 VALUATION - CHINA 8 Sector average 13.6% 1.6x 12.4x Data as of April 14, 14 Sector valuation metrics: - ROE FY1: 13.6%, P/B FY1: 1.6x, P/E FY1: 12.4x BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
9 STOCK PERFORMANCE - JAPAN 9 Data as of April 14, 14 Carbon Analysis Tool BI LIFEA <GO>
10 STOCK PERFORMANCE - CHINA 10 Data as of April 14, 14 Data as of April 14, 14 Carbon Analysis Tool BI LIFEA <GO>
11 STOCK PERFORMANCE CHINA VS. JAPAN 11 China H-shr insurers Data as of April 14, 14 Japan insurers Data as of April 14, 14 Carbon Analysis Tool BI LIFEA <GO>
12 IFE INSURANCE APAN >>>>>>>>>>>>>
13 LATEST TOPICS IN JAPAN LIFE INSURANCE 13 SHARE PRICE DRIVERS IMPLICATIONS Investments:» Stocks Fund flows» Bonds Yield curve, Inflation expectation» Net profit» Alternative Real Estate, Infrastructure» FX impact Yen vs. others Sales:» Stocks Fund flows» Bonds Yield curve, Inflation» Embedded value and new business value / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
14 JAPAN - ABENOMICS - EQUITY 14 Key message: - Strong equity markets benefit insurers investment return BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
15 JAPAN ABENOMICS - YEN 15 Key message: - Significant currency exposures of life insurers overseas portfolio BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
16 JAPAN TRACKING SALES 16 DESCRIPTION» Text text Key message: - Regulatory changes impact sales and future profit streams BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
17 JAPAN OVERSEAS M&A 17 DESCRIPTION» Text text Key message: - Japanese insurers seeking growth and opportunities abroad BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
18 IFE INSURANCE HINA >>>>>>>>>>>>>
19 LATEST TOPICS IN CHINA LIFE INSURANCE 19 SHARE PRICE DRIVERS IMPLICATIONS Reforms centric policies» Market-based pricing reform» Health care reform» Pension reform» Channel distribution» Investment channels reform» Securities market reform» Product strategy changes» Investment yield» Capital market impact / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
20 CHINA HEALTH INSURANCE 20 DESCRIPTION» Text text Key message: - Government-led critical illness program could be costly to insurers BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
21 CHINA PENSION REFORM 21 DESCRIPTION» Text text Key message: - Tax-deferred pension plans gives incentives for income earner to save BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
22 CHINA PREMIUM GROWTH RECOVERY 22 China life insurance monthly premium growth %YoY (YTD basis) Key message: - Life premiums growth recovery in 2014 BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
23 CHINA INVESTMENT DE-REGULATION 23 DESCRIPTION» Text text Key message: - More flexibility in investment mix => better ALM & risk-return trade-off BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
24 CHINA DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL 24 Key message: - Distribution rules lead to changes in product strategies and profitability BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
25 CHINA SECURITIES MARKET 25 Key message: - Securities market change may drive convergence/divergence of dually listed share prices (A/H premium/discount) Carbon Analysis Tool BI LIFEA <GO>
26 EALTH CARE UBLIC VS. PRIVATE >>>>>>>>>>>>>
27 HEALTH EXPENDITURE VS. GDP 27 Total health expenditure as % of GDP» Japan s total health expenditure as % of GDP rose by 1.1 % pts between 2006 and 2011, vs. 0.6% pts change for China » Aging population, slower GDP growth, might have contributed to the ratio change Total health expenditure as % of GDP - 5yr change
28 HEALTH EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA 28» Health expenditure per capita stood at $4,000 for Japan vs. a mere $278 for China» China s health expenditure grew at a relatively faster pace than Japan. 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 30% 25% - 24% 9,121 8,608 Health expenditure per capita (USD) 5,939 4,952 4,875 3,958 3, ,286 1,616 1, Health expenditure per capita - 5yr CAGR 20% 18% 17% 15% 15% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 0% 1%
29 HEALTH EXPENDITURE PUBLIC VS. PRIVATE 29» Share of public health expenditure for China rose 15% pts between Almost no change for Japan» Implication: More burden on China s government Encourage more participation from private players such as Ping An and PICC Health Public health expenditure as % of total Public health expenditure as % of total - 5yr change
30 LOOMBERG & LOOMBERG NDUSTRIES >>>>>>>>>>>>>
31 BLOOMBERG FUNCTIONS MA <GO> 31 Carbon Analysis Tool Key message: Easy to use function to find deals history and track current deals
32 BLOOMBERG FUNCTIONS ECFC <GO> 32 FXFC <GO> Key message: Get latest Macro and FX forecasts Carbon Analysis Tool
33 BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES 33 BI LIFEA <GO> Carbon Analysis Tool
34 EY AKEAWAYS >>>>>>>>>>>>>
35 KEY TAKEAWAYS TOPIC: Life Insurers in Developed Japan and Developing China 35» ASIA INSURANCE MARKET OVERVIEW Long term growth potentials for developing countries like China, India and ASEAN countries» LIFE INSURANCE MARKETS CHINA & JAPAN Japan mature markets with prospects of portfolio investments as one of the key share price drivers China developing markets filled with regulatory changes that bring opportunities and challenges» HEALTH CARE LESS PUBLIC, MORE PRIVATE Rising burden on government funded health expenditures prompt more participation from private insurers to serve the market» BLOOMBERG & BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES Comprehensive data coverage with current analysis, supported by dedicated industry analysts
36 HANK YOU STEVEN LAM BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES ANALYST BI <GO>, BI LIFEA <GO>
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