Updated development of global greenhouse gas emissions 2013

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1 Updated development of global greenhouse gas emissions 2013 Hans-Joachim Ziesing Low Carbon Markets and the Legacy of Nuclear Power 19 th REFORM Group Meeting, Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg September 01 05, 2014

2 Main data for estimating GHG emissions for 2013 UNFCCC: National Communications from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention; National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data from Annex I Parties for 1990 to 2012 International Energy Agency (IEA): CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2013 Edition, Paris 2013; (up to 2011) BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, June 2014 The World Bank, World Development Indicators, Database May 2014 Eurostat Database CO 2 emissions up to 2013 are extrapolated from the 2013 data on energy consumption published in the BP Statistics, June 2013, which are shown by country and energy source. 2

3 Changes of real GDP 2013 versus 2012 in Annex I countries and others 3

4 Changes of primary energy 2013 vs 2012 in countries with 100 Gtoe 4

5 GHG emissions in Annex-I countries

6 GHG emissions in Annex I countries:

7 GHG emissions in Annex I countries: base year

8 GHG emissions in Annex I countries targets reality Base year 1990 (1995) bis 2013 Base year to 2013 Emissions targets vs. base year Emissions targets averaged over Effective emissions averaged over Differences between targets and reality GHG emissions in Gt CO 2eq changes in % GHG emissions in Gt CO 2eq % EU EU EU Japan Australia USA Canada Total Annex II Russia Ukraine Total EIT Total Annex I sources: UNFCCC; Worldbank; IEA; author's calculation. 8

9 Annex I: Difference between realized and targeted emissions 2008/2012 9

10 EU 15: Difference between realized and targeted emissions ø2008/

11 EU 28: GHG emissions targets by 2020, 2030 and

12 World-wide CO 2 emissions

13 World-wide CO 2 emissions by regions

14 The ten major emitters world-wide

15 Per capita CO 2 emissions: EU-27 and selected countries

16 World-wide CO 2 emissions by regions CO 2 emissions in million tonnes changes in % WORLD 21,779 22,291 24,173 27,899 30,760 32,185 32, Annex I 14,989 13,884 14,432 14,900 14,170 13,816 13, Non-Annex I 6,172 7,698 8,904 12,026 15,493 17,236 17, EIT 4,388 2,851 2,575 2,683 2,692 2,737 2, OECD 11,883 12,401 13,326 13,768 13,169 12,811 12, EU 28 4,442 4,175 4,143 4,271 3,918 3,727 3, sources: UNFCCC; IEA; BP; author's calculation. 16

17 World-wide CO 2 emissions by selected countries Germany UK Italy France Poland Japan Australia USA Kanada Russia Ukraine Mexico Brazil Korea China India Africa Middle East Latin America* Other Asia sources: UNFCCC; IEA; BP; author's calculation CO 2 emissions in million tonnes changes in % *) without Brazil and Mexico 17

18 GHG intensity in Annex I countries/world-wide CO 2 intensity

19 GHG/CO 2 intensity in Annex I and Non-Annex I countries

20 Components influencing GHG emissions 2013 vs. base year (1990) 20

21 Energy productivity in selected countries

22 Changes of energy productivity in selected countries

23 Energy productivity with different base of calculation : 23

24 Perspective: World-wide CO 2 emissions by countries/regions

25 Conclusions almost the same as all the previous years The discussion mostly concentrates on emissions targets. This is necessary and has to be pursued in the future - but The real emission s development and their business-as-usual-perspectives should not be neglected. The gap between the desired targets and the expected real development can only be filled with an appropriate policy and effective measures for more energy efficiency and renewable energies. Targets are necessary but not sufficient: It needs policies and measures. That s the proof for an effective climate protection policy and not only the target setting! 25

26 CO 2 emissions a global challenge: Where the lights are on we need a strong climate protection policy The paper is published in September in: Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, 9/2014 (in German only) Thanks for listening

27 Changes of GDP 2009 vs in Annex I Parties and selected other countries

28 Changes of GDP 2010 vs in Annex I Parties and selected other countries

29 Changes of real GDP 2011 versus 2010 in Annex I countries and others changes in % 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0 8,8 8,5 7,6 6,9 5,9 5,5 5,3 5,2 4,3 4,3 3,9 3,9 3,6 3,3 3,1 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,1 2,1 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,7 0,7 0,5 0,4 0,0-0,2-0,4-0,7-0,7-1,6 2,7-4,0-6,0-8,0 source: Worldbank, WDI. China Turkey Estaonia India Lithunia Latvia Belarus Ukraine Poland Russia Mexico Sweden Korea Slovak Rep. Austria Iceland Germany Finland Brazil Canada Malta Switzerland Belgium Australia New Zealand Bulgaria USA France Hungary Czech Rep. Luxembourg Norway Netherlands Denmark Spain Ukraine Cyprus Italy Croatia Slovenia Romania Japan Ireland Portugal Greece WOLD -6,9 29

30 Changes of real GDP 2012 versus 2011 in Annex I countries and others 10,0 3,9 3,7 3,7 3,4 3,4 3,2 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,7 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,0-6,4 5,6 changes in % 7,5 5,0 0,0-5,0-0,2-0,3-0,5-1,0-1,3-1,4-1,7-2,0-2,3-2,4-2,4-3,2-10,0 China Latvia Mexico Romania Lithunia Russia Australia India Estonia Norway New Zealand Turkey USA WORLD Korea Slowak Rep Japan Poland Canada Iceland Belarus Malta Switzerland Ireland Brazil Austria Bulgaria Sweden Germany Luxembourg UK Ukraine France Finland Belgium Denmark Netherlands Czech Rep Spain Hungary Croatia Slovenia Italy Cyprus Portugal Greece source: Wordbank, World Development Indicators (WDI). 30

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