ON OECD I-O DATABASE AND ITS EXTENSION TO INTER-COUNTRY INTER- INDUSTRY ANALYSIS " Norihiko YAMANO"

Transcription

1 ON OECD I-O DATABASE AND ITS EXTENSION TO INTER-COUNTRY INTER- INDUSTRY ANALYSIS " Norihiko YAMANO" OECD Directorate for Science Technology and Industry" " 1 February 2012" INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON FRONTIERS OF INTERNATIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSES! Tokyo" 1

2 Statistical challenges and methodologies of developing global inter-industry model" Background issues" Compilation procedures" Data sources" Input output tables" Bilateral trade database in goods and services" Industry database" Application examples" Summary" 2

3 Background issues" Globalisation issues: Trade conflicts of final goods balances è Evolution of global supply chains" Deviations in:" Geographical locations of producers and consumers" Marginal impacts on value-added of each country" Trade balances in Goods & Services and value-added" Gained and displaced jobs" Recent evidences" Increased processing trade functions in emerging Asia and Eastern Europe" Great Trade Collapse (GTC)" Specialisations in production stages / tasks" Inter-country (regional) input-output model is (still) most effective empirical tool to understand the economic structure " 3

4 Inter-country I-O framework" Exports of final goods to B Domestic input by Country A Exports of intermediates to B Imports of intermediates from B

5 If we have ideal I-O and conventional trade dataset" Country A s I-O Country B s I-O Intermediate demandfinal Demand Intermediate demand Final Demand A1 A1 B1 B2 F1 F2 EX B1 B2 F1 Ex A1 A2 B1 B2 VA1VA2VB1VB2 OA1OA2OB1OB2 merged info only A1 A2 B1 B2 VA1 VA2 OA1 OA2 merged info only Bilateral trade goods and services A B A 0 B 0 A1 A2 B1 B2 Intermediate demand Final Demand A1 A1 B1 B2 F1 F2 VA1 VA2 VB1 VB2 OA1 OA2 OB1 OB2 5

6 A1 A2 B1 B2 If we have ideal I-O and end-use categorised trade dataset" Country A s I-O Intermediate demandfinal Demand A1 A1 B1 B2 VA1VA2VB1VB2 OA1OA2OB1OB2 F1 F2 merged info only A1 A2 B1 B2 Country B s I-O Intermediate demand Final Demand EX B1 B2 F1 Ex VA1 VA2 OA1 OA2 merged info only Bilateral trade goods and services By end-use category (9 category) Intermediate A B A 0 B 0 Final goods A B A 0 B 0 A1 A2 B1 B2 Intermediate demand Final Demand A1 A1 B1 B2 F1 F2 VA1 VA2 VB1 VB2 OA1 OA2 OB1 OB2 6

7 Inter-industry transactions and product cycles " Natural resources Intermediates Primary commodities Parts and components By-products" Final Final products producers Household consumption goods Waste materials! Recycled products! Industry capital goods investment Capital stock (depreciation) Human capital and other intangibles 7

8 Data sources of internationally comparable database" OECD" Input Output Database: Industry-by-industry symmetric" Bilateral trade data by industry and by end-use (goods) Trade in Service (bilateral services)" STAN Structural Analysis Database (NA components)" National Accounts: " Other" UNSD classification correspondence keys" World Bank WDI" IMF BOP / IFS" UN Population" 8

9 Compilation procedures of OECD Databases" Periodical submission of data sources (both published and non-published from OECD members and major non- OECD)" Collection of additional data sources (related statistics and analytical databases e.g. UNSD, JIP semi-official data)" Data cleaning e.g. patents, business directory, trade statistics " Development of harmonisation conversion keys" Compilation procedures" Publish from web site, data dissemination system, special extractions for external studies" Specialised analytical tools for displaying indicators" 9

10 OECD Input-Output tables! Format! Industry-by-industry symmetric 48 sectors (max)" ISIC Rev 3 industry classification" Import and domestic transactions are separated" Basic price (1993 SNA)" History! 1995ed: 10 countries ( )" 2002ed: 24 countries (1995)" 2006/09ed : 40+ ( )" (OECD-1 / G20-1 / BRIICS)" Most Mid 2000s tables are preliminary, they will be replaced when national benchmarks are available" " 10

11 Coverage of OECD I-O 2009ed" OECD(A-J) mid90early00mid00 OECD(K-U) mid90early00mid00 Non-OECD mid90early00mid00 Australia Korea Argentina - - Austria Luxembourg Brazil Belgium Mexico - - Chile - Canada Netherlands China Czech Rep. New Zealand - Chinese Taipei - Denmark Norway Estonia Finland Poland India France Portugal Indonesia Germany Slovak Republic - Israel - Greece Spain Malaysia - - Hungary Sweden Philippines - Iceland Switzerland - - Russia - Ireland Turkey Singapore - Italy United Kingdom Slovenia - Japan United States South Africa Available year, -: not available will be updated 11 will be available

12 Bilateral trade by industry and end-use Building sustainable process for regular updates using BEC method (BEC = Classification by Broad Economic Categories) Conversions from all revisions of HS (88, 96, 02, 07) to both BEC and ISIC have been developed HSxx 6 digit raw data HS6 - ISIC conversion keys HS6 Enduse conversion keys BTD by industry and enduse

13 Application examples: OECD studies" Green growth strategy: Environmental footprint " CO 2 emissions and freshwater embodied in international trade" Global value chains" Increased demands for understanding fragility and underlying risks behind the evolutions of production networks " Great Trade Collapse ( )" Additional dimensions on external trade balances " Merchandise trade (OECD and UN trade statistics)" Balance of payment (National Accounts / I-O)" Trade in Value-Added " 13

14 OECD project on measuring Trade in Value-Added" Global coverage: OECD34 / BRIICS / ASEAN9 /EU27" Inter-country I-O and Bilateral trade by category are the central databases" Trade and value-chains indicators" The databases facilitate comparisons of trade in VA with conventional monetary trade balances" Linking trade and industry micro data (TEC project) " è pseudo-surveyed inter-country linkages" 14

15 Vertical trade: the import contents of exports (2005)" Source: OECD Inter-country inter-industry model,

16 Import contents of exports" Source: OECD Inter-country I-O model,

17 World trade by category and by originating region ( )" % Personal computers & passenger cars Household consumption Capital goods Personal computers & passenger cars Other intermediate goods Household consumption Mining and primary energy inputs Capital goods Intermediate goods for assembly Other intermediate goods Mining and primary energy inputs Intermediate goods for assembly USA USA (557) (949) JPN JPN (434) (560) EU15 Other OECD CHN EU15 (1 886) Other OECD CHN (677) BRIIS (148) Value (3 785) of total exports, billions (1 of 950) USD, current exchange (1 529) rates (706) Value of total exports, billions of USD, current exchange rates Source: OECD BTDIXE 2011 (total of import flow) BRIIS (197) ROW (2 540) ROW (864) 17

18 World trade by end-use ( )" Source: OECD BTDIXE 2011 (export flow) 18

19 CO 2 embodied in international trade" Source: OECD Inter-country inter-industry model, 2011, IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, UNFCCC 19

20 CO 2 embodied in international trade by emissions source and consumption category" Source: OECD Inter-country inter-industry model (May 2011), IEA CO2, UNFCCC 20

21 Possible extensions" More countries (e.g. Latin America, Middle East)" Supply-side and productivity perspectives are also important i.e. intangibles, human capital, capital ownership via FDI" Vulnerability of supply chains" More frequent analytical framework " More service trade information" 21

22 Thank you!" Addition information available at " " 22