The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program

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1 The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program For MIT Energy Initiative Symposium May 12, 2014 Cambridge, MA By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Growing economies and populations drive energy use higher; reduced energy intensity, reflecting energy efficiency gains, moderates this trend average annual change ( ) percent per year 7 6 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

3 U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by declines in energy intensity U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu 120 History 2012 Projections Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Natural gas Coal Nuclear Liquid biofuels 27% 8% 18% 8% 1% 27% 9% 19% 8% 2% 30% 10% 18% 8% 2% 20 Oil and other liquids 37% 34% 32% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

4 Energy use per dollar of output and per capita are projected to decline even with expected growth in energy-intensive manufacturing energy intensity index, 2005=1 2.0 History Projections Energy use per capita 0.5 Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

5 Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 U.S. electricity use percent growth (3-year rolling average) Electricity use History 2012 Period Annual Growth Electricity use GDP 1950s s s s s Projections 2 0 Gross domestic product Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

6 The industrial and commercial sectors account for virtually all growth in U.S. energy use in the AEO2014 Reference case quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

7 Commercial Buildings Data MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

8 A CBECS cycle demands many years of work 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Stakeholder meetings Questionnaire design & programming Field Update Sampling 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Field prep & training Buildings Survey Data Collection Monitoring, validation & editing Flash Estimates - Characteristics Detailed Tables - Characteristics Microdata - Characteristics 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Supplier Survey Data Collection Monitoring, editing, weighting, imputation, estimation, modeling, tabulation & data inoculation Flash Estimates Consumption & Expenditures (C&E) Detailed Tables C&E Microdata C&E 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Editing, imputation, modeling, tabulation & data inoculation Howard Gruenspecht, The Central Role of Energy Efficiency MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

9 The 2012 CBECS building population is diverse; small buildings predominate Office Warehouse and storage Service Retail other than mall Religious worship Education Food service Public assembly Vacant Food sales Buildings Floorspace Enclosed and strip malls Lodging Outpatient health care Other Public order and safety Inpatient health care Percent MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

10 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook CBECS International Energy Outlook Today In Energy Monthly Energy Review Howard Gruenspecht, Selected U.S. Energy Issues AAAS Fellows, October 25,

11 More rapid adoption of technology accelerates the projected decline in commercial energy intensity (energy use per sq. foot) index of energy use per square foot, 2005 =1 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

12 Technology improvement by use in 3 cases Percent reduction from 2012 level Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 MIT Energy Initiative Symposium, May 12,

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