Brazil Economic Overview

Transcription

1 Brazil Economic Overview New York Alexandre Tombini Governor February

2 Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development Macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policies and strong bank supervision, resulted in: - Capacity to absorb internal and external shocks - Macroeconomic and financial stability - Sustainable economic growth - Credit and capital market development Macroeconomic and social inclusion policies have led to a marked improvement in living conditions 2

3 Solid Macroeconomic Fundamentals Met Inflation Target 9 Consecutive Years Declining Net Public Debt (% of GDP) p.p. of GDP International Reserves (US$ billion) Net External Debt (US$ billion) Source: IBGE / BCB 3

4 Main Questions and Answers Inflation Growth Inflation resilient in the last few months 2013 CPI will decline in second half Growth is resuming ER policy Flexible exchange rate Investments Reforms to boost competitiveness Concessions and PPP 4

5 Inflation Outlook Inflation has been persistent in the last few months, however inflation will be lower in the second half 2013 Why? Food price inflation will moderate Lower wage increases (minimum wage) will reduce pressure on services Exchange rates unlikely to repeat 2012 depreciation Credit growth should remain moderate Weak global recovery should restrain global prices Inflation on target for 10th consecutive year in

6 Breakeven Inflation is Declining in /12/12 26/12/12 28/12/12 02/01/13 04/01/13 08/01/13 10/01/13 14/01/13 16/01/13 18/01/13 22/01/13 24/01/13 28/01/13 30/01/13 01/02/13 05/02/13 07/02/13 13/02/13 15/02/13 19/02/13 21/02/ % 6.25% 6.00% 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% up to February 21 th Source: BCB 6

7 Growth is Resuming Brazil underwent a typical business cycle downturn Economic growth drivers Monetary and financial stimuli already in place Employment, wages and credit Business confidence and lower inventories will support growth in manufacturing Improved corporate balance sheets Agriculture: record grain crop expected for 2013 Tax reforms to simplify the tax system and reduce costs Reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness Infrastructure investments private sector oriented 7

8 Growth is Resuming % 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 4Q Quarterly GDP YoY Market expectations Source: BCB (Focus Feb 18, 2013) 8

9 % Monetary Policy Stimuli Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 R$ billion May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep Policy Rate 500 Reserve Requirements 45% % 35% 30% 25% % % 10% Reserve requirements / total deposits Reserve requirements (overall balance) Source: BCB 9

10 % (seasonally adjusted) Domestic Demand Drivers average (Dec 08 = 100) Dec 08 Apr 09 Aug 09 Dec 09 Apr 10 Aug 10 Dec 10 Apr 11 Aug 11 Dec 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dec Unemployment Rate at Record Lows Dec % Growing Real Wages and Real Payroll Mean over previous 12 months % Dec 12 / Dec % Dec 12 / Dec 11 real wages real payroll Source: IBGE / BCB 10

11 index Business Confidence and Lower Inventories Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 index Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan Business confidence seasonally adjusted 110 Industrial inventories seasonally adjusted Source: FGV 11

12 Stock Exchange Index (Ibovespa) Sector Shares of Ibovespa Index (% Change in 2012) Weight Retail Logistics Others* Manufacturing Financials Ibovespa Index Mining Real Estate Telecommunications Electricity & Utilities Oil & Gas * Others: Sugar & Ethanol and Health Care Source: BM&F Bovespa / Infomoney 12

13 R$ billion US$ billion Corporate Balance Sheets in Better Shape Jan/ Apr/ Jul/ Oct/ Jan/ Apr/ Jul/ Oct/ Domestic Corporate Bond Issuances Domestic Bond Issuances in 2012 Purpose Refinance Liabilities Investment Project Implementation Working Capital Foreign Bonds and Loans Foreign Bonds and Loans Maturities 100% 27 80% % 29 40% % % longer than 3yrs. betw. 1 and 3yrs. 1yr. or shorter Source: BCB / Anbima 13

14 million tons Record Grain Crop Expected in production of grains 2013/2012 = 14% * *Jan 13 estimate Source: Conab 14

15 Exchange Rate Policy Flexible exchange rate First line of defense in the presence of shocks International reserves accumulation, as market conditions allow Provision of forex liquidity in case of market disruption Mitigate excessive volatility 15

16 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Exchange Rate 4.5 Exchange Rate (BRL / USD) 2.15 Exchange Rate (BRL / USD) Exchange Rate Volatility (1-Month ATM Implied) 35 Exchange Rate Volatility (1-Month ATM Implied) BRL EUR JPY BRL MXN AUD RUB Source: BCB / Bloomberg *Up to February 18th 16

17 Reforms to Boost Growth Tax reforms to simplify the tax system and reduce costs Payroll tax cuts Public sector pension reform Tax-advantaged bonds for infrastructure and R&D investment Reduce electricity costs due to lower taxes and renewal of concessions Measures to increase competitiveness and investments Building a skilled labor force (science without frontiers and pronatec) Concessions and PPPs (private sector oriented) Highways, railroads, ports and airports 17

18 Investment Opportunities Expanding consumer market share A significant share of low income groups joined the middle class Major investment opportunities Expanding and upgrading infrastructure Vast reserves of mineral commodities Offshore oil fields ( pre-salt layer) Potential to expand cultivated area Major international sports events (FIFA World Cup and Olympics Games) 18

19 million people Growing Middle Class Expanding Consumer Market Social Stratification 200 E D C A/B 7.6% % % % % % % 28.1% % % % % * *FGV forecast Source: FGV 19

20 Concessions Program Next Steps in 2013 Airports auctions scheduled for September Rio de Janeiro (Galeao) Belo Horizonte (Confins) Ports Concession auctions for new public ports: Manaus (AM), Imbituba (SC), Ilheus and Aguas Profundas (ES) Re-auction over 50 privately operated terminals in public ports Highways 7,500 km (4,660 miles) in 9 projects for 30 years Railways 10,000 km (6,214 miles) in 12 projects for 25 years 20

21 Brazil is Leading Recipient of FDI USA USA USA China China China Belgium 85.7 Belgium Hong Kong 72.5 Hong Kong 82.7 Hong Kong 96.1 Brazil 65.3 UK 50.6 Brazil 66.7 UK 62.5 Singapore 48.6 Australia 65.8 France 58.9 Brazil 48.5 Singapore 64.0 Singapore 54.4 Germany 46.9 Russian 52.9 Australia 48.5 Russian 43.3 UK 51.1 Canada 47.2 Ireland 42.8 Canada 41.4 Russian 44.1 Spain 40.8 France 40.9 Ireland 39.6 Australia 35.2 Germany 40.4 India 27.3 Switzerland 32.5 Italy 34.3 Chile 26.4 France 30.6 India 31.6 Luxembourg 22.6 Saudi Arabia 29.2 Spain 29.5 Belgium Source: UNCTAD 21

22 Brazil Economic Overview Alexandre Tombini Governor 22

23 Glossary ABDIB ANBIMA BCB Conab CNI FGV IBGE MTE UN UNCTAD Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association Central Bank of Brazil National Food Supply Company National Confederation of Industry Getulio Vargas Foundation Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Ministry of Labor United Nations United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 23