2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013"

Transcription

1 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * % total return +6.35% total return -0.38% total return -2.75% total return *It is not possible to invest in an index. Performance of indices does not reflect investment fees or transaction costs. 2

3 Surprise-side economics * *The index reflects a weighted average of the difference between economic data and economists' consensus expectations. Index values indicate whether economic data are higher or lower than forecasts. 3

4 Political uncertainty costs economic growth 1 1 The index measures policy uncertainty by calculating the number of newspaper references (weighted 50%), and expiring tax-code provisions and statistical measures of disagreement among forecasters about inflation and government spending (weighted 50%). 4

5 The long-term debt problem U.S. versus other major world economies Country Gross debt as % of GDP Japan Italy U.S France 87.5 Canada 90.0 U.K Germany 83.0 India 67.6 Brazil 64.1 China 22.2 Source: Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2012, Historical Tables, Table 7.1. Source: International Monetary Fund, 2012 estimates 5

6 The economy is getting better you just have to look for it Fog of uncertainty in U.S. is starting to thin List of positive factors expanding: Housing growth is accelerating Auto sales highest since 2007, retail sales up Monthly job growth has stabilized Inflation remains low and stable under 2%, gasoline prices dropping Equity markets rose in January on positive economic data and corporate earnings reports List of negative factors shrinking: Manufacturing activity expanding, but only slowly Consumer confidence faltered in Q4 on fiscal cliff concerns Businesses uncertain about impact of deficit and taxes 6

7 The economy should be growing closer to 5%... 7

8 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Growth broken down into its components Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Real GDP sum of above 8

9 Job growth is stabilizing 9

10 The consumer is back 10

11 However, the fiscal cliff might change that 11

12 Housing normally adds 1% to the bottom line 12

13 Home prices are rebounding 13

14 Auto sales have recovered 14

15 Capital goods spending is holding up barely 15

16 Manufacturing seeks to regain momentum > 50 = EXPANSION < 50 = CONTRACTION 16

17 Recovery outside the U.S. is mixed Europe economy remains weak with early signs of optimism Germany GDP dropped 0.5% in Q4 Manufacturing activity contracted in Germany and rest of Eurozone Signs of stabilization with central bank commitment to Euro Some progress on debt and fiscal challenges in Spain, Italy, and Greece Slight improvement in region s leading economic indicator China s growth rate rebounds, political transition complete GDP grew 7.9% in Q4 first increase in growth rate in seven quarters Industrial production rose 10.3% in December Shanghai stock market index up sharply in mid-january 17

18 Leading index has declined in Europe 18

19 Mild recession, but no turnaround anytime soon 19

20 Weak manufacturing sector > 50 = EXPANSION < 50 = CONTRACTION Source: Markit 20

21 but yields are stable 5.31% 4.53% 1.99% 1.32% 21

22 China is once again accelerating 22

23 Manufacturing back in expansionary territory > 50 = EXPANSION < 50 = CONTRACTION 23

24 Recent rebound in Chinese stock prices a hopeful sign 24

25 Looking at the year ahead The end of QE in 2013 How to get rid of a trillion dollar balance sheet Inflation isn t in the cards just yet When will rates rise? Give us some numbers 25

26 Treasury rates head lower 26

27 Don t expect this graph to change too soon 27

28 Inflation is not (yet) a problem 28

29 Oil prices have topped out for the cycle $

30 Look for market rates to change this year mo 6mo 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 30yr 12/31/ /31/ /31/

31 2013 economic outlook Moderate pace of recovery likely to continue US GDP forecast of 2.5%, including fiscal drag Potential for Fed to announce end of QE this year with rate increases in 2014 Inflation will remain below 2.5% in 2013 Financial markets outlook Earnings continue to improve and will drive indexes this year. Further, rising yield curve will push money into equities over bonds. Could see 20% returns in domestic equities. EM markets had a good 2012 and should have a better Risks remain in Washington Equity volatility will continue 31

32 Important information This material is prepared by TIAA-CREF Asset Management and represents the views of Timothy Hopper as of January These views may change in response to changing economic and market conditions. The material is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any product or service to which this information may relate. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. TIAA-CREF Asset Management provides investment advice and portfolio management services to the TIAA-CREF group of companies through the following entities: Teachers Advisors, Inc., TIAA- CREF Investment Management, LLC, and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA ). Teachers Advisors, Inc., is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA). TIAA-CREF products may be subject to market and other risk factors. See the applicable product literature, or visit tiaa-cref.org for details Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund, (TIAA-CREF), 730 Third Ave., New York, NY C

2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market

2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market March 2013 2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market Saira Malik, Head of Global Equity Research, TIAA-CREF Executive summary The outlook for equity markets is favorable

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation

How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation January 26, 2015 How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation Executive Summary Despite headline deflation in the Eurozone, there is little risk that the region will repeat the experience of

More information

Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015

Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015 Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While

More information

Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices

Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices November 14, 2014 Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices Executive Summary The $30 fall in oil prices since July reflects greater U.S. supply as well as worries about a significant

More information

2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review

2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review Investment Insights 2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review By William Riegel, Head of Equity Investments After a volatile year in 2011, equity markets grew more confident in the first quarter of 2012.

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

2. UK Government debt and borrowing

2. UK Government debt and borrowing 2. UK Government debt and borrowing How well do you understand the current UK debt position and the options open to Government to reduce the deficit? This leaflet gives you a general background to the

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Documeent title on one or two lines in Gustan Book 24pt Commercial mortgages are HOT!

Documeent title on one or two lines in Gustan Book 24pt Commercial mortgages are HOT! TIAA-CREF Asset Management Documeent title on one or two lines in Gustan Book pt Commercial mortgages are HOT! Martha Peyton, Ph.D., Managing Director TIAA-CREF Global Real Estate, Strategy & Research

More information

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks

More information

The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong

The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong Investment Insights The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong Kevin Lorenz, CFA, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager of TIAA-CREF's High-Yield Fund

More information

5. Foreign Exchange Market

5. Foreign Exchange Market CBC Annual Report 5. Foreign Exchange Market Slight Appreciation of the NT Dollar On a daily average basis, the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate index of the NT dollar slightly increased

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected

More information

Finding yield in dividendpaying

Finding yield in dividendpaying Market & Investment Insights Finding yield in dividendpaying stocks Mike Holbert, Portfolio Manager, Active Equities Article Highlights: Low interest rates have spurred investors to search for yield outside

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September

More information

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors SIGNATURE GLOBAL ADVISORS MARKETS UPDATE AUGUST 3, 2011 The following comments come from an internal interview with Chief Investment Officer, Eric Bushell. They represent Signature s current market views

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15

TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Committee and Date Cabinet 10 June 2015 12.30 pm Item 9 Public TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Responsible Officer James Walton e-mail: james.walton@shropshire.gov.uk Tel: (01743) 255011 1.

More information

For high-yield bonds, market volatility can bring new opportunities

For high-yield bonds, market volatility can bring new opportunities Investment Perspectives For high-yield bonds, market volatility can bring new opportunities Kevin Lorenz and Jean Lin, portfolio managers for TIAA-CREF High-Yield Fund Article Highlights: The decline in

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly Highlights General Fund revenue through December is $6.5 million

More information

Management Discussions and Analysis for the three-month and six-month period ended 30 June 2014 and 2015

Management Discussions and Analysis for the three-month and six-month period ended 30 June 2014 and 2015 Executive Summary Overview of the global economy during the second quarter of 2015 (Q2/2015) are as following; the US economy has been in recovery mode as a result of an increase in household consumption

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy: Slowly Gathering Strength

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy: Slowly Gathering Strength The Outlook for the U.S. Economy: Slowly Gathering Strength David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Adviser Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC Peterson Institute

More information

VAKIFBANK GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEKLY

VAKIFBANK GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEKLY VAKIFBANK GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEKLY Is Italy Going To Be The New Weak Link After Greece? T. Vakıflar Bankası T.A.O 25 July 2011 No: 27 1 Vakıfbank Economic Research Introduction... Debt crisis which has threatened

More information

Can the US Consumer Keep the World Economy Afloat?

Can the US Consumer Keep the World Economy Afloat? Can the US Consumer Keep the World Economy Afloat? January 2016 Robert Johnson, CFA Director of Economic Analysis robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2016 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

More information

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy January 2016 2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook After Struggling in 2015, Global Equity Markets likely

More information

Inside the Markets Conference Call

Inside the Markets Conference Call Inside the Markets Conference Call April 3, 2014 Presented by: Hefren-Tillotson Asset Management Meticulous Wealth Management Since 1948 Hefren-Tillotson, Inc. 308 Seventh Ave Pittsburgh, PA 15222 Ph:

More information

QUARTERLY REPORT For the six months ended September 30, 2012 010_0774017502412.indd 2 2012/12/21 11:54:11

QUARTERLY REPORT For the six months ended September 30, 2012 010_0774017502412.indd 2 2012/12/21 11:54:11 QUARTERLY REPORT For the six months ended September 30, 2012 QUALITATIVE INFORMATION (1) Qualitative Information Relating to Consolidated Quarterly Operating Results During the first half of the fiscal

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

IRISH LIFE MAPS AND IRISH LIFE INVESTMENT MANAGERS

IRISH LIFE MAPS AND IRISH LIFE INVESTMENT MANAGERS PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE Q1 2015 QUARTER 1 (Q1) 2015: JANUARY TO MARCH 2015 IRISH LIFE MAPS AND IRISH LIFE INVESTMENT MANAGERS Irish Life Multi Asset Portfolios (MAPS) have been designed and

More information

Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number

Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) If during the past decade the average rate of monetary growth

More information

Economic Outlook 2009/2010

Economic Outlook 2009/2010 Economic Outlook 29/21 s Twenty-Eighth Annual Forecast Luncheon Paul R. Portney Dean, Professor of Economics, and Halle Chair in Leadership Marshall J. Vest Director Economic and Business Research Center

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Summer 2013 1 About the European Forecasting Network The European Forecasting Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions,

More information

Advanced economies driving global growth. Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering

Advanced economies driving global growth. Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering April 22, 2014 Advanced economies driving global growth Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering Interest rates remain favorable Investors recalibrating their portfolios More certainty in fiscal

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

M&G Corporate Bond Fund

M&G Corporate Bond Fund Quarterly Review M&G Corporate Bond Fund Third quarter 2015 Fund manager Richard Woolnough Overview A general risk-off tone prevailed in the third quarter amid significant volatility in risk markets, driving

More information

2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%)

2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%) The global economy recorded modest growth in 2014. Real GDP rose by 3.4%, however, economic performance varied by country and region (see table). Several regions turned in a lackluster performance. The

More information

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015 BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015

More information

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery?

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012 Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy

More information

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference

More information

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? December 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283, doug.handler@ihs.com US Economic Overview 2 Executive

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

Section I: Reasoning. Section II: Chart Analysis

Section I: Reasoning. Section II: Chart Analysis Section I: Reasoning How many triangles and rectangles can you count in the figure above? 8 triangles and 10 rectangles 10 triangles and 10 rectangles 10 triangles and 6 rectangles 8 triangles and 6 rectangles

More information

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016 CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Price projection 2013

Price projection 2013 Price projection 2013 CONTENTS 1. PRICE PROJECTION 2013 3 2. ECONOMIC SITUATION 3 2.1. Finland 4 2.2. Sweden 5 2.3. Norway 5 2.4. Denmark 5 2.5. United Kingdom 5 2.6. The Netherlands 5 3. CURRENCY EXCHANGE

More information

Welcome! Thanks for investing your time today.

Welcome! Thanks for investing your time today. Welcome! Thanks for investing your time today. Please sign in Fill out your name tag Address your mail card It s not about how much money you earn. It s about how much you save and invest. October 2015

More information

FOURTH QUARTER NET INCOME INCREASES 12% TO A RECORD $5.32 BILLION FOURTH QUARTER EPS OF $1.02, UP 12% REVENUES INCREASE 9% TO $21.

FOURTH QUARTER NET INCOME INCREASES 12% TO A RECORD $5.32 BILLION FOURTH QUARTER EPS OF $1.02, UP 12% REVENUES INCREASE 9% TO $21. FOURTH QUARTER NET INCOME INCREASES 12% TO A RECORD $5.32 BILLION FOURTH QUARTER EPS OF $1.02, UP 12% REVENUES INCREASE 9% TO $21.9 BILLION CITIGROUP 2004 NET INCOME OF $17.0 BILLION, EPS OF $3.26 REVENUES

More information

D. A and B D. Exports of Goods and Services (EX) D. +$50 F. A, B, and C E. A and C

D. A and B D. Exports of Goods and Services (EX) D. +$50 F. A, B, and C E. A and C 1. When considering international trade, economic gains from trading item A for item B A. are possible if one country is better at producing item A and another country is better at producing item B. B.

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

MGE#12 The Balance of Payments

MGE#12 The Balance of Payments MGE#12 The Balance of Payments The Current Account, the Capital Account and the Balance of Payments Introduction to the Foreign Exchange Market Savings, Investment and the Current Account 1 From last session

More information

Answers to Sample Long Free-Response Questions

Answers to Sample Long Free-Response Questions s to Sample Long Free-Response Questions 1. Assume you are a member of Congress. A member of your staff has just given you the following economic statistics: Year Ago Last Estimate for Quarter Quarter

More information

The Tricky Trio: US Dollar, Oil and Chinese Renminbi

The Tricky Trio: US Dollar, Oil and Chinese Renminbi INVESTMENT DESK BULLETIN 9 th February 2016 The Tricky Trio: US Dollar, Oil and Chinese Renminbi Presented by Pau Morilla-Giner, Chief Investment Officer Tug Of War Between Services and Manufacturing Sectors

More information

Financial Information

Financial Information Financial Information Solid results with in all key financial metrics of 23.6 bn, up 0.4% like-for like Adjusted EBITA margin up 0.3 pt on organic basis Net profit up +4% to 1.9 bn Record Free Cash Flow

More information

ECONOMY is GEARING: #7 Bank Lending & #8 State Jobs!!!

ECONOMY is GEARING: #7 Bank Lending & #8 State Jobs!!! ECONOMY is GEARING: #7 Bank Lending & #8 State Jobs!!! Total U.S. Bank Loans State Government Total Tax Collections vs. State Government Employment ECONOMY is GEARING: #9 Net Exports!!! U. S. Real Exports

More information

Arup DC Pension Scheme

Arup DC Pension Scheme A presentation for: Arup DC Pension Scheme March 3 rd 2015 ARUP DC PENSION SCHEME Investment Summary 31/01/2015 Merrion Cash Fund 2,280.59 Merrion Global Equity Fund 199,535.79 Merrion Long Bond Fund 19,456.87

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

Money At Work 1: Foundations of investing

Money At Work 1: Foundations of investing It s not about how much money you earn. It s about how much you save and invest. November 12, 2015 A TIAA-CREF Financial Essentials Workshop Bill Thorne TIAA-CREF Money At Work 1: Foundations of investing

More information

WITH-PROFIT ANNUITIES

WITH-PROFIT ANNUITIES WITH-PROFIT ANNUITIES BONUS DECLARATION 2014 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION 3 2. SUMMARY OF BONUS DECLARATION 3 3. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 5 4. WITH-PROFIT ANNUITY OVERVIEW 7 5. INVESTMENTS 9 6. EXPECTED LONG-TERM

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

The current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5

The current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5 The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank 5 6 Overview Global economy German economy emerging from sluggish phase faster than expected The global economy looks to have expanded in the

More information

3 Macroeconomics LESSON 8

3 Macroeconomics LESSON 8 3 Macroeconomics LESSON 8 Fiscal Policy Introduction and Description Fiscal policy is one of the two demand management policies available to policy makers. Government expenditures and the level and type

More information

Economic Outlook December 2015

Economic Outlook December 2015 Economic Outlook December 215 Economics Unit HEADLINES The global economy has slowed slightly in 215, as a result of further slowing of emerging economies. Improvement is expected in 216, though there

More information

Falling home prices, worsening credit availability, shrinking equity values, and growing

Falling home prices, worsening credit availability, shrinking equity values, and growing Economic Outlook Falling home prices, worsening credit availability, shrinking equity values, and growing job losses delivered a crushing blow to the national and California economies in 2008. Consumer

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet

Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Introduction Since the outbreak of the credit crunch crisis in 2008, and the subsequent European debt crisis, it has become clear that there are large macroeconomic imbalances

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand Suppose that the economy is undergoing a recession because of a fall in aggregate demand. a. Using

More information

The Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics

The Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Professor Yamin Ahmad The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve System, or the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Supplemental Notes to Monetary

More information

Real estate: The impact of rising interest rates

Real estate: The impact of rising interest rates Fall 015 TIAA-CREF Asset Management Real estate: The impact of rising interest rates Overview TIAA-CREF Global Real Estate Strategy & Research Martha Peyton, Ph.D. Managing Director Edward F. Pierzak,

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q4 Results 2 Contents Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4 General economic environment 5 Market conditions and the economy 6 Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 A note on methodology

More information

2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TTG WEALTH MANAGEMENT 2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 2015Q1 Core Asset Allocation Summary 1 2015Q1 Satellite Asset Allocation Summary 2 2014 Year-End Review 3 Investment Outlook for

More information

to Wealth Management resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group

to Wealth Management resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group A Defined Approach to Wealth Management Giving UWI access to the combined resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group The information in this presentation is intended

More information

The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications

The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications Fabrizio Zampolli * Senior Economist Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements NBS Belgrade, 1 October 2010 * Views expressed

More information

Building Your Retirement Portfolio

Building Your Retirement Portfolio Building Your Retirement Portfolio With the Help of TIAA-CREF 111075_L01.indd 1 ABOUT TIAA-CREF: For more than 90 years, we at TIAA-CREF have dedicated ourselves to helping those who serve the greater

More information

Makita Corporation. Consolidated Financial Results for the nine months ended December 31, 2007 (U.S. GAAP Financial Information)

Makita Corporation. Consolidated Financial Results for the nine months ended December 31, 2007 (U.S. GAAP Financial Information) Makita Corporation Consolidated Financial Results for the nine months ended (U.S. GAAP Financial Information) (English translation of "ZAIMU/GYOSEKI NO GAIKYO" originally issued in Japanese language) CONSOLIDATED

More information

Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary April 16, 2012 Beige Book Shows Modest Growth John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The latest Beige Book indicates that the economy is

More information

Summer in Sweden A review of economic events. Torbjörn Isaksson Andreas Wallström 16 August 2016

Summer in Sweden A review of economic events. Torbjörn Isaksson Andreas Wallström 16 August 2016 Summer in Sweden A review of economic events Torbjörn Isaksson Andreas Wallström 16 August 2016 1 Global drop in yields World trade has stagnated. Indicators do not suggest an improvement any time soon.

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

For immediate release Herzogenaurach, August 7, 2014

For immediate release Herzogenaurach, August 7, 2014 For immediate release Herzogenaurach, August 7, 2014 First Half 2014 Results: Group sales increase 10% on a currency-neutral basis in Q2 Negative currency effects and continued weakness in golf weigh on

More information

U-SHIN LTD. Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended November 30, 2016

U-SHIN LTD. Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended November 30, 2016 USHIN LTD. Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended November 30, 2016 Tokyo, January 13, 2017 USHIN LTD. announced its consolidated financial results for the year ended November 30, 2016. The

More information

2.5 Monetary policy: Interest rates

2.5 Monetary policy: Interest rates 2.5 Monetary policy: Interest rates Learning Outcomes Describe the role of central banks as regulators of commercial banks and bankers to governments. Explain that central banks are usually made responsible

More information

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November Global Economic Perspective: November November 19, 2015 by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments IN THIS ISSUE: Fundamentals Reassert Themselves Ahead of Likely US Rate

More information

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY Update on Risks and Opportunities in the Financial Markets January 2015 Weekly Market Commentary Week of January 26, 2015 KEY TAKEAWAYS The latest leg up for the U.S. dollar has

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2014 and Winter 2013/14

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2014 and Winter 2013/14 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2014 and 2015 Winter 2013/14 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon?

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? September 015 MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHT Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? The fear of rising interest rates, which has clouded investors psyches for years, has

More information

April 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

April 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2015 Stocks to Stabilize & Post Gains with Further Rate Cuts & Easing Measures, ECB s QE, Gradual, Modest

More information

11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook

11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook Chapter 1: Government Debt Indebtedness of the world s governments Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Japan 17 U.K. 9 Italy 11 Netherlands Greece 11 Norway Belgium 9 Sweden U.S.A.

More information

Workshop 7 Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Workshop 7 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Workshop 7 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Description The government uses monetary and fiscal policy to manage the economy. Monetary policy and fiscal policy are tools to increase or decrease aggregate demand

More information

THE DELOITTE CFO SURVEY 2015 Q2 RESULTS PATH TO GROWTH

THE DELOITTE CFO SURVEY 2015 Q2 RESULTS PATH TO GROWTH THE DELOITTE CFO SURVEY 2015 Q2 RESULTS PATH TO GROWTH 2 Contents Key points from the 2015 Q2 Survey 4 Economic context 5 The economy and CFOs outlook 6 Funding 7 Cash flow and risk 8 M&A 9 A note on methodology

More information

General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability

General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability DEMBIERMONT Christian* BIS Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland Christian.Dembiermont@bis.org In simple words the General

More information