Biomass Pellet Prices Drivers and Outlook What is the worst that can happen?

Transcription

1 Biomass Pellet Prices Drivers and Outlook What is the worst that can happen? European Biomass Power Generation 1st October 2012 Cormac O Carroll Director, London Office Pöyry Management Consulting (UK) Ltd.

2 PÖYRY GROUP Pöyry Group is a global management consulting and engineering company dedicated to balanced sustainability. Over 7,000 experts in 50 countries working on 17,000 projects annually. Albania I Argentina I Australia I Austria I Brazil I Bulgaria I Canada I Chile I Colombia I Czech Republic I Estonia I Finland I France I Germany I Hungary I India I Indonesia I Iran I Italy I Latvia I Lithuania I Malaysia I Mexico I New Zealand I Norway I Oman I Peru I Philippines I Poland I Republic of Korea I Romania I Russia I Saudi Arabia I Singapore I Slovakia I South Africa I Spain I Sweden I Switzerland I Thailand I Tunisia I United Arab Emirates I United Kingdom I United States of America I Venezuela I Vietnam I Zambia 2

3 PÖYRY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING Corporate and Business Strategy Market Insights and Modeling Portfolio strategy Growth strategies Business strategies and business plans Business model development Scenario analysis Risk management Environmental strategies Market entry strategies Cooperation strategies Market analysis Market forecasts Demand, supply, and cost analysis Price projections Industry cost curves Market design and modeling Market regulatory frameworks Market scenarios Resource and Technology Strategies Sales and Supply Chain Strategies Resource base valuations and development Technology mapping Technology benchmarking Technology options evaluation Technology strategies R&D portfolio strategies Technology acquisitions Supply/market analysis Pricing strategies Contract negotiations Supply chain optimization Sourcing strategy formulation Supplier assessments Transfer Pricing Performance improvement Operational and organizational benchmarking Corporate restructuring Organizational design Business transformation Operational and Organizational Excellence Change management Post merger integration Manufacturing strategies Energy efficiency Asset Management Maintenance Strategies Acquisitions Divestments Asset valuations Business valuations Project pre-feasibility / feasibility assessments Investments and M&A Due Diligence (strategy, business, technical, environmental) Business valuation vs. Asset valuations 3

4 CONTENT 1. Biomass Supply & Demand for Power Generation in Europe 2. Biomass Availability 3. Pellet Demand 4. Wood Pellet Trade Flows 5. Wood Pellet Supply 6. Pricing Dynamics for Pellets 7. Pellet Market Liquidity 8. Summary and Conclusions 4

5 NREAP ANALYSIS- SOLID BIOMASS FOR POWER GENERATION Based on NREAP, the 9 most energy consuming European countries will have a combined solid biomass-based demand of ~1,600 PJ for power generation by Solid biomass demand for power generation Petajoule % 11.6% 14.1% 5.2% 7.1% 6.0% 8.9% 14.0% 4.7%

6 BIOMASS SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK EU27 (NREAPs) A total biomass supply gap of ~50 Modt/a (wood equivalent) is likely to develop by Million odt / a Supply Demand Gap Supply Demand Gap 6

7 WOOD BIOMASS AVAILABILITY GLOBAL Woody biomass availability Increasing harvest potential Stable harvest potential Stable harvest potential but in high demand Raw material deficit 7

8 GLOBAL PELLET CONSUMPTION 2015 AND 2020 OUTLOOK North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Russian Federation China Japan & South Korea 4 6 Million tonnes/a Latin America Year Total Consumption million tonnes/a million tonnes/a million tonnes/a Oceania Source: Pöyry Wood Pellet Multiclient 8

9 WORLD PELLET TRADE FLOWS IN 2011 Increasing volumes will be exported from the US and Brazil to Europe. 1, ,000 4,400* 50 Trade flows (1,000 tonnes) Current Emerging * EU 27 internal trade 9

10 PLANNED PELLET PRODUCTION CAPACITIES More than 80 pellet production projects have been announced globally Planned wood pellet production capacity increases (as of 2011) US Brazil Russia Canada UK Germany China Latvia Number of planned mills Total planned capacity (1,000 mt) ,024 3,000 1,817 1, Capacity increase hot spots 10

11 INDUSTRIAL PELLETS PRICING DYNAMICS AND OUTLOOK New emerging supply from lower wood cost regions may push higher cost producers further back on the global cost/supply curve. Key variables: speed of demand vs. supply development - Delivered cost to end-user, USD/GJ- cost woody biomass cost for transport ILLUSTRATIVE exchange rates pellet paying capability Potential additional low cost supply Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3 - Cumulative capacity, million tonnes/a - 11

12 PÖYRY S PELLET PRICING MODEL We construct forward supply and demand curves from our data on power plants, pellet mills, and our views on future markets and regulatory environment Volume Supply Capacity of existing and planned mills new pellet mills endogenously deployed within the model, adding to supply volumes. Demand Existing and planned co-firing and biomass conversion power plants and CHP units: Volume determined by plant capacity, plant availability, and efficiency. Price Each pellet mill is modeled using Pöyry s proprietary Virtual Pellet Mill Pellet production costs wood, power, propane, labour Transport to ARA inland transport cost (rail or road) and shipping cost CAPEX, where the market can support it Each power plant and CHP plant has a paying capability, for the peak and offpeak block of each month, based on: wholesale power price; coal and carbon price (including Carbon support in GB); biomass incentives; and each individual plant s efficiency. 12

13 MODEL STRUCTURE DEMAND Legend Input Calculation Output / Iteration Bioenergyincentives / mandates for co-firing - country A, year Z Pellet price, year Z Oil price - year Z CO2 emission cost, year Z USD / country A exchange rate year Z Coal price, year Z Inland transportation cost escalator, year Z PPC - coal plant X, country, A year Z Co-firing rate / conversion coal plant X, country A, year Z Demand volume coal power plant X, country A Aggregated demand curve year Z Aggregated supply curve year Z Inland transportation cost algorithm (cost / distance), country A, year 0 Port to plant transport distance plant X, country A, year Z Port to plant transportation cost plant X, country A, year Z Electricity wholesale price, country A, year Z Bioenergyincentives / mandates for dedicated - country A, year Z PPC dedicated plant X, country A, year Z Generation / No generation dedicated plant A, year Z Demand volume dedicated plant X, country A Cumulative demand alt. region AA, year Z Cumulative demand new dedicated plants, country A, year Z 13

14 MODEL STRUCTURE SUPPLY Legend Oil price - year Z Mill to ARA shipping distance mill XX Input Calculation Output / Iteration Pellet price, year Z Mill to ARA shipping cost escalator year Z Mill to ARA shipping cost algorithm (cost / distance), mill XX, year 0 Mill to ARA shipping cost mill XX, year Z USD/ Supply region K exchange rate year Z Biomass price escalator - supply region K, year Z Biomass surplus supply region K, year 0 Aggregated demand curve year Z Aggregated supply curve year Z Marginal cost of supply mill XX, supply region K, year Z Marginal cost of production mill XX, supply region K, year Z Biomass price supply region K, year Z Biomass price algorithm (cost to biomass surplus), supply region K, year Z New mill assessment USD/ Supply region K exchange rate year Z Pellets supply volume mill XX Other production costs escalation supply region K, year Z Other pellet production costs mill XX, supply region K, year Z Other pellet production costs mill XX, supply region K, year 0 Biomass surplus - supply region K, year Z Incremental biomass demand supply region K, year Z Incremental biomass demand supply region K Other pellet production costs new mill ZZ, supply region K, year Z Other pellet production costs for standard size mill supply region K, year 0 Mill deployment rate supply region K Build new mill XX yes/no CAPEX new mill supply region K, year Z Input year Z + 1 IRR requirement for new pellet mill Supply region K Standard scale for new pellet mill Supply region K CAPEX algorithm (CAPEX / scale) - year 0 CAPEX escalation year Z 14

15 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS High scenario Central scenario Low scenario Demand High pellet demand High paying capability Central demand Central paying capability Low pellet demand Low paying capability Drivers Coal, power and carbon prices Level of conversion and co-firing High Central Low High Moderate Limited Supply Highest supply costs Central supply costs Lowest supply costs Driver Transportation costs Indexed to high oil price Indexed to central oil price Indexed to low oil price 15

16 SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYMANICS ATLANTIC BASIN Each point on the supply and demand curve represents an individual pellet mill, or power plant Price (USD / t, real 2011 money) Indicative High Scenario Suppy Supply Demand GBR NET BEL DEN Volume (Mt / year) Main Drivers UK - conversion of a few large coal fired plants. Denmark - new Energy Plan drives the conversion of numerous coal CHPs to biomass. Netherlands - 10% co firing mandate. Belgium - favourable incentives for co-firing in Flanders. 16

17 LIQUIDITY OF PELLET MARKET CURRENT STATUS Dutch APX-ENDEX has recently launched an exchange for wood pellets delivered to ARA Trade of wood pellets currently takes place only to very limited extent Churn rates are estimated to be near 1, i.e. traded volumes are approx. equal to physical volumes Currently, only suppliers and users participate introduction of clearing shall change this If establishment of the APX-ENDEX exchange is successful, market liquidity is expected to increase Churn Rate 150 Bid/Ask Spread 6.8% % Wood Pellets Crude Oil Wood Pellets Crude Oil 17

18 PELLET SUPPLY LIQUIDITY OUTLOOK Industrial Pellet Market in the Atlantic Basin (million tonnes) % US Southeast Brazil Canada NW Russia Baltics Other (PO, PT, UA) Short Term Pellet Availability (million tonnes) Short Term Pellet Availability (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Percentage Share of Pellets Available on Short-Term Basis (%) Note: Long-term supply agreements persist beyond pellet mill debt term. 18

19 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Wood Pellet demand in Europe will continue to grow, driven by subsidies and legislation. The emergence of large pellet production facilities in low cost regions will shift the supply cost curve to the right, mitigating price rises. We expect market liquidity to remain relatively low - project financing requirements mean long term contracts will dominate Pellet availability and pricing will not be a limitation to the growth of biomass power. The worst that can happen is in the hands of governments. 19

20 Thank You! Cormac O Carroll Pöyry Management Consulting (UK) Ltd (020) cormac.ocarroll@poyry.com