Developing solar in emerging markets

Transcription

1 Developing solar in emerging markets Swedbank Conference March 17, 2016 Our values Predictable Driving results Change makers Working together

2 Disclaimer The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated ( relevant persons ). Any person who is not a relevant person should not rely, act or make assessment on the basis of this presentation or anything included therein. The following presentation may include information related to investments made and key commercial terms thereof, including future returns. Such information cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Scatec Solar ASA or any company within the Scatec Solar Group. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Scatec Solar Group s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives as well as forward looking statements and any such information or forward-looking statements regarding the future and/or the Scatec Solar Group s expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements. 2

3 South Africa: Solar is now cheaper than coal The 40 MW Linde plant in South Africa Page 3

4 Rapid price decline boosts volume growth Total system cost - 1 MW (USD/Watt)* Annual new installed capacity per year 77.8GW 68.6GW GW GW 39.9GW GW 28.3GW 30.7GW GW 7.7GW Module Inverter Balance of plant EPC Other Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan USA China India Rest of World (*) Capex will vary from market to market depending on system size, market maturity, bankability etc Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q PV market outlook 4

5 Solar a very competitive source of electricity (EUR ct /kwh) Levelized cost of energy, utility scale new build power capacity ct Solar PV ct 3 5 ct 2 4 ct Gas CCGT (base load) 5 7 ct Coal 6-14 ct Gas CCGT (peak load) ct / kwh Diesel ct / kwh Source: Fraunhofer / Agora Energiwende 2015* 2015 Source: Lazard Capital, Scatec Solar analysis * Real values in EUR 2014, bandwidth represents different scenarios of market, technology and cost development. PV plant locations between south of Germany (1,190 kwh/kwp/year and South of Spain (1,680 kwh/kwp/y) US$/watt) 5

6 Significant market growth ahead Disruptive growth within PV, wind and storage required to meet IEAs 2 degree scenario achievable World Regional primary energy demand in the 2-degree scenario % 44% United States European Union China India Brazil Africa 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Source: IEA Renewables Nuclear Natual gas Oil Coal Other

7 Technology is key battery cost is dropping USD Lithium Ion Battery Price per MWh 1, Source: Pike Research

8 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 Storage will increase the market for large-scale PV Export / generation capacity (% of installed MWp) 100 Energy stored (hours) PV generation Export grid Battery charging / discharging Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

9 FT March 16: 90 % of new electricity was renewable March 16 9

10 Scatec Solar a leading player in utility scale PV The 75 MW Dreunberg plant in South Africa Page 10

11 An Integrated Independent Power Producer Scatec Solar Develops, Builds, Owns & Operates Solar Plants for 20 Years Scatec Solar Equipment manufacturing Project development Financing Construction Operations Ownership (IPP) Own development Local partners Equity and debt structuring Engineering Procurement Project management Performance Management Maintenance and repair Long-term ownership Asset management

12 A growing and diversified asset portfolio In operation Czech Republic 1 20 MW Kalkbult, RSA 2 75 MW Linde, RSA 3 40 MW Dreunberg, RSA 4 75 MW 1 ASYV, Rwanda Agua Fria, Honduras MW 60 MW 7 8 Utah Red Hills, USA Total MW 383 MW Under construction 12 5 Jordan 8 43 MW Projects in backlog* Los Prados, Honduras 9 53 MW Upington, RSA MW Segou, Mali MW Serato & Sorbral, Brazil MW Total 422 MW Pipeline & opportunities 3.6 GW (*) Projects with secured tariff and/or off take agreements 12

13 A solid project funnel basis for further growth ~2,500 MW MW in production and under construction In operation In operation & under construction 1,400-1,600 > 50% 1,096 MW >90% MW Financial close/ Construction start YE2015 YE2016e YE2018e IN OPERATION / UNDER CONSTRUCTION 426 MW 13

14 Our holistic approach is the recipe for success Key ingredients: Market understanding and screening Access to financing Partnerships Regulatory framework and legal set up Project development and execution Operation and asset management Corporate Social Responsibility Security Kalkbult, 75 MW South Africa ASYV project, 8.5 MW Rwanda 14

15 Strong partners provides capital and mitigates risk Norfund partnership: Project development and investment partnership Norfund & KLP - equity co-investors in key markets IFC partnership: Project development and investment partner in selected countries in West Africa and Asia Project finance partners Multilateral development banks and institutions providing long term non-recourse project finance Standard Bank and partners providing project finance to plants in South Africa Key benefits: Access to lower cost of capital Expanded network for project origination Risk mitigation representing the Norwegian government, the World Bank and government partners 15

16 Strong community relations vital for success Economic development often a critical part of the renewables program Strong community relations key for successful execution Job creation is the most important factor both directly through construction and operation jobs In South Arica Economic Development commitments over 20 years are made as part of the bid documents Existing Scatec Solar projects - total community contributions in South Africa totals NOK 1.2 billion over a 20 year period; a significant contribution to the scarcely populated regions Specialist advisors engaged to manage CSR and ED programs 16

17 Africa: Lack of power holds back economic growth Key facts 54 countries and population 1.1 billion Sub-Saharan Africa GDP equals Netherlands, but includes 7 of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world Total power production in Sub-Saharan Africa (ex South Africa) equals Norway s power production 600 million people without power Side 17

18 COP21 in Paris: Also a leap forward for renewables? Climate Finance, e.g. the UN Green Climate Fund, can speed up deployment of renewables in developing countries Scatec Solar: Strategy and Programme for UN accreditation(cdm) of our solar power plants in developing countries Current Scatec Solar projects save more than tons of CO2 per year, to reach more than 2 million in 2018 Norwegian developers and finance institutions (e.g GIEK, Norfund) can play a vital role in accelerating renewable investments in the south; partnering with UNs Green Climate Fund Hydro and solar investments by Norwegian IPPs will open opportunities for Norwegian suppliers 18

19 Scatec Solar is well positioned for the future Diversified asset base with stable cash generation for the next years Solid project pipeline for further growth over the coming years Track record and business model for complex emerging solar markets Emerging economies take advantage of lower renewables prices Lower oil and gas prices have limited impact on the appetite for renewables Market transformation opens up for new business offerings 19

20 Thank you The 60 MW Agua Fria plant in Honduras 20