3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum"

Transcription

1 3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist, Itaú Unibanco Partner, Itaú BBA August 30 th, 2012

2 In Brief World: consolidating a scenario of low growth. Slow recovery in the second half. China: sustainable moderate growth. Brazil: delayed recovery in economic activity leaves room for further monetary, fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimuli. We expect a mild rebound following 3Q12. Brazil and China must rebalance their growth models. Brazil should invest (and save) more, while China should rebalance its growth model towards more consumption. Commerce and financial transactions between Brazil and China are set to keep growing: complementary trade portfolios, savings surplus/deficit. 2

3 World: Consolidation of Slow Growth E 2013 World US Euro Zone Japan China Source: Haver, CEIC, Bloomberg, Itaú Unibanco 3

4 World: Consolidation of Slow Growth GDP* (quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted) 1,4% 1,2% 1,16% 1,0% 0,8% 1,03% 1,02% 0,88% 0,78% 0,87% 0,78% 0,78% 0,74% 0,75% 0,75% 0,81% 0,82% 0,65% 0,67% 0,6% 0,56% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 * Weighted average (US, Euro Zone, China and Japan) Source: Haver, CEIC, Bloomberg, Itaú Unibanco 4

5 China: Important Contribution to Global Growth Share of Global GPD (PPP) China s Contribution to Global Growth (percentage points) 25% 1,80 16% 23% 21% 1,60 14% 19% 18,2% 1,40 12% 17% 15% 17,1% 1,20 10% 8% 13% 11% 9% 1,00 0,80 6% 4% 7% 0,60 2% 5% , % China United States Contribution to Global Growth GDP Growth(rhs) Source: IMF and Itaú Unibanco 5

6 F China: Sustainable Moderate Growth 15,0% 12,5% 10,0% 7,5% 5,0% 2,5% 0,0% -2,5% GDP Growth GDP Share (Demand) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% -5,0% 0% Total Consumption Net Exports Gross Capital Formation GDP Private Consumption Government Consumption Gross Capital Formation Net Exports Sources: CEIC and Itaú Unibanco 6

7 China: Smaller Current Account Surplus Current Account (% of GDP, 12m) Trade Balance (% of GDP, 12m) 12% 20% 10% 8% 6% 4% 15% 10% 5% 2% 0% -2% -4% F Goods Services services Income Transfers Current Account 0% -5% -10% Misc Manufactured Goods Machinery Industrial Materials Primary Sources: CEIC and Itaú Unibanco 7

8 Commodities: Real Prices Continue to Grow in the Long Term Grains: necessity to stimulate the supply of land and new technologies. Metals: correlation with chinese growth. Energy: more demand from emerging countries, rising production costs, geopolitical risk Commodities Projection CRB Index in Real Terms Sources: Itaú Unibanco and Bloomberg 8

9 Commodities: Scarce Water and Land are Relevant Factors Available Land for Agriculture (millions of hectares) Arable Land in Use, Total Suitable for Rainfed Crop Production Latin America and Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia South Asia Near East Industrial and North Countries Africa Transition Countries Source: Itaú Unibanco, FAO and Fisher et.al.(2000) 9

10 Commodities: Water is a Scarce Resource in Most of the Emerging Countries Areas With Physical/Economic Scarcity of Water Physical Scacity Close to Physical Scarcity Economic Scarcity Little or None Scarcity Not Estimated Source: Comprehensive Assessment of water Management in Agriculture,

11 e Brazil: Foreign Direct Investment Remains Robust Foreign direct investment remains robust (US$ 8.4 bi in July). 70 Accumulated FDI (in billions of dollars) Yearly FDI (in billions of dollars) , jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Source: Haver /Elaboration: Itaú Unibanco 11

12 Brazil: Monetary, Fiscal and Parafiscal Stimuli to Growth Real Interest Rates (%) (Interest rate x 12 month inflation expectation) Federal Expenditure (% of GDP, jun) 4,2% Payroll 4,3% 0,4% Subsidies 0,3% 3,3% Other 3,2% Investment 1,5% 1,3% 12 Investment ex. MCMV Transfers 1,1% 1,1% 8,2% 7,7% 10 Total Expenditure 17,6% 16,7% 8 Public Sector Share in Outstanding Loans Source: Itaú Unibanco and Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional 12

13 China Japão Japan México Mexico Peru Chile Argentina Colombia Colômbia Canadá Canada Brasil Brazil África South do Africa Sul Reino Unido UK USA Brazil Saves too Little, China Saves too Much Domestic Savings (Share of GDP, 2011) Source: Itaú Unibanco 13

14 Brazil: Lower Interest Rates and more Investment in the Long Term Real Interest Rates Investment (% GDP) 5,5% 5,0% 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 22,0% 21,5% 21,0% 20,5% 20,0% 19,5% 19,0% 18,5% 1,0% ,0% Source: IBGE, BCB e Itaú Unibanco 14

15 Brazil: Lower Interest Rates Allow Smaller Nominal Deficit Government Balance (% of GDP) 6,0 4,0 2,0 2,6 2,0 2,9 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,9 2,0 1,9 2,2 2,8 2,6 2,7 2,0 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,2 1,2 0,0-2,0-4,0-3,7-4,2-3,6-2,8-1,6-3,3-3,5-2,2-1,5-1,4-1,7-1,8-1,7-1,7-1,7-1,7-1,7-6,0-5,1-8,0-6, Primary Balance Nominal Balance Source: BCB and Itaú BBA 15

16 Bilateral Trade Grows; China is Brazil s Biggest Trade Partner Brazil and China Bilateral Trade - 12 m, US$ bi 50 Share in Brazilian International Trade 12m (exports + imports) 30% % 20% 15% % 5% 0% Brazilian Exports Brazilian Imports China European Union US Source: Itaú Unibanco 16

17 Food and Beverage Oil and Derivatives Other Materials Intermediates Textile, Clothing, Footwear Machinery, Transportation, Electronics Other Iron Ore and Concentrates Agriculture Other Durable Consumer Goods Passenger Vehicles Capital goods Other Intermediate Goods Fuels Non-Durable Consumer Goods Trade Portfolios are Complementary China: Trade Balance Breakdown (US$ mm) Brazil: Trade Balance Breakdown (US$ mm) Primary Goods Primary Goods Manufactured Manufactured Source: Itaú Unibanco 17

18 Appendix 18

19 Brazil: What We Expect in the Short Term Payment Balance Current Account Exchange Rate ICI* (eop, yoy) -18% 27% -11% * Itaú Commodities Index, dollar values Economic Activity GDP % Inflation IPCA % Monetary Policy Selic Rate % Fiscal Primary Surplus Source: Itaú Unibanco and BCB 19

20 What We Expect in the Long-Term? Source: Itaú Unibanco 20

21 China: Less Room and Less Willingness for Reaction Total Social Financing (% of GDP) Government Net Debt (% of GDP) 200% 60% 180% 160% 140% 50% 40% 120% 100% 30% 80% 60% 40% 20% 10% 20% 0% % Loans in Local Currency Others Central Govt Debt Local Govt Debt Others Sources: CEIC and Itaú Unibanco 21

22 2007.I 2007.III 2008.I 2008.III 2009.I 2009.III 2010.I 2010.III 2011.I 2011.III 2012.I Brazil: Labor Market Remains Heated Conditions are Loose in Production, Tight in Employment Lack of Qualified Workers* 4% 35 2% 30 0% 25-2% 20-4% -6% -8% Hiato Output Produção gap Hiato Employment Empregogap % * Percentage of companies that see the lack of qualified workforce as a bottleneck to growth. Quarterly survey by CNI, 2nd quarter of Source: CNI, IBGE and Itaú Unibanco 22

23 2007 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T4 Brazil: Forecasting a Rebound in the Second Half GDP Growth (quarterly, seasonally adjusted) 5% 4% Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli 3% 2,6% 2,7% 2,1% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2,0% 1,8% 1,5% 1,6% 1,5% 1,2% 0,9% 1,0% 0,9% 0,5% -0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0.5% 1.2% 1,4% -2% -1,5% -3% -4% -5% -3,9% Slower-Than-Expected Recovery Source: IBGE and Itaú Unibanco 23

Brazil Economic Outlook

Brazil Economic Outlook Brazil Economic Outlook London School of Economics Alexandre Tombini Governor January 2014 1 Brazil overview Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and GDP Brazil has vast

More information

Brazil: Economic Outlook and Perspectives. Henrique de Campos Meirelles

Brazil: Economic Outlook and Perspectives. Henrique de Campos Meirelles Brazil: Economic Outlook and Perspectives Henrique de Campos Meirelles St. Gallen University September 2010 Brazil in 2002 60% of total sovereign debt denominated in dollars IMF debtor country High public

More information

Brazil Economic Overview

Brazil Economic Overview Brazil Economic Overview New York Alexandre Tombini Governor February 2013 1 Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development Macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policies and strong

More information

Min. Guido Mantega. November 2009

Min. Guido Mantega. November 2009 New Cycle of Brazilian Economic Growth Financial i Times Min. Guido Mantega November 2009 Reasons to begin a new growth cycle Brazil faced the crisis with a strong economy; Emerged from it stronger than

More information

HOSPIRA (HSP US) HISTORICAL COMMON STOCK PRICE INFORMATION

HOSPIRA (HSP US) HISTORICAL COMMON STOCK PRICE INFORMATION 30-Apr-2004 28.35 29.00 28.20 28.46 28.55 03-May-2004 28.50 28.70 26.80 27.04 27.21 04-May-2004 26.90 26.99 26.00 26.00 26.38 05-May-2004 26.05 26.69 26.00 26.35 26.34 06-May-2004 26.31 26.35 26.05 26.26

More information

Banco Santander Chile: Solid results in 2Q14. Sound outlook for 2015

Banco Santander Chile: Solid results in 2Q14. Sound outlook for 2015 0 Banco Santander : Solid results in 2Q14. Sound outlook for 2015 August 2014 Important information 1 Banco Santander caution that this presentation contains forward looking statements within the meaning

More information

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México Santander EM Day, Macro & Corporates Conference London, 7 June 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation

More information

Economic Outlook and Recent Developments in Latin America and Chile

Economic Outlook and Recent Developments in Latin America and Chile Economic Outlook and Recent Developments in Latin America and Chile Rodrigo Vergara Governor Central Bank of Chile, October 1 Introduction Latin America has made great advances in the s. The commodity

More information

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States Jan 1963 $17,200 (NA) Feb 1963 $17,700 (NA) Mar 1963 $18,200 (NA) Apr 1963 $18,200 (NA) May 1963 $17,500 (NA) Jun 1963 $18,000 (NA) Jul 1963 $18,400 (NA) Aug 1963 $17,800 (NA) Sep 1963 $17,900 (NA) Oct

More information

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 15 April 2016 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Macroeconomic Policy in Mexico 3 Evolution and Outlook

More information

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016 Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the

More information

II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP

II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Real Sector: Growth, Economic Fluctuations and Inflation Workshop for Staff of Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar June 2 3, 2014

More information

The Brazilian Economy and Investment Opportunities

The Brazilian Economy and Investment Opportunities The Brazilian Economy and Investment Guido Mantega Minister of Finance Brazilian Infrastructure Concession Program US$ 235 billion in the coming years Largest concession program in recent decades Investment:

More information

Colombian Economic Outlook

Colombian Economic Outlook Colombian Economic Outlook October 2007 AGENDA 1. WHERE ARE WE? 2. INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO 3. INCREASE IN FOREIGN INVESTMENT 4. WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED 1 AGENDA 1. WHERE ARE WE? 2. INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO 3.

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies

The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies 43 rd Meeting of IDB Chief Economists of Central Banks and Finance Ministries The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies 13 April 2016 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm

More information

THE UNIVERSITY OF BOLTON

THE UNIVERSITY OF BOLTON JANUARY Jan 1 6.44 8.24 12.23 2.17 4.06 5.46 Jan 2 6.44 8.24 12.24 2.20 4.07 5.47 Jan 3 6.44 8.24 12.24 2.21 4.08 5.48 Jan 4 6.44 8.24 12.25 2.22 4.09 5.49 Jan 5 6.43 8.23 12.25 2.24 4.10 5.50 Jan 6 6.43

More information

Disclosure of 1Q13 Results

Disclosure of 1Q13 Results Disclosure of 1Q13 Results José Rubens de la Rosa CEO Presentation: Carlos Zignani Investor Relations Director José Antonio Valiati Controller and Chief Financial Director Thiago A. Deiro Investor Relations

More information

Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Current Outlook Ø Lower commodity prices remain undermining growth in the region Ø Commodity exports continue adjusting to lower prices Ø Relief from abroad

More information

COLOMBIA ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE BRIEF October 2012

COLOMBIA ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE BRIEF October 2012 COLOMBIA ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE BRIEF October 2012 1. ECONOMY IN BRIEF Colombian GDP in 2011 reached 5.9%, showing a continuous positive growth rate over the past years. In the third quarter of 2012 the

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

Global economic outlook and Latin America

Global economic outlook and Latin America Global economic outlook and Latin America Luis Oscar Herrera BTG Pactual Andean Region & Argentina October, 2015 For additional information, please read carefully the notice at the end of this presentation.

More information

Institutional Presentation & Results (July)

Institutional Presentation & Results (July) Institutional Presentation & Results 2011 (July) 1 Economic Data RS and Brazil Rio Grande do Sul Brasil Demographic Data Population (In million inhabitants) 10.7 190.7 5.6% of population Area (In million

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

Esteban Pérez Caldentey Development Studies Section Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

Esteban Pérez Caldentey Development Studies Section Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) The Challenge of Financing Business in Latin America and the Caribbean The Future of the Financial Services Industry after the Crisis 14th Caribbean Business Executive Seminar Port-of of-spain, Trinidad

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Global Prospects and recovery of Trinidad and Tobago

Global Prospects and recovery of Trinidad and Tobago Global Prospects and recovery of Trinidad and Tobago Anthony Birchwood (PHD) Caribbean Centre for Money and Finance The University of the West Indies. Presented at AREA, May 16 th 2012 Global Prospects

More information

Consultatio Asset Management

Consultatio Asset Management Consultatio Views View Macro Argentina View Badlar View FX SPOT View BCS Current government s legacy 2 View Macro Argentina: Macro Equation G + C + I + (X-M) = GDP (X-M) = GDP G C I Balance of Payments

More information

Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade

Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade The coffee market registered further decreases in July with prices reacting to the depreciation in the Brazilian exchange rate, which dropped

More information

Financial Programming and Policies Yangon, Myanmar January 19 23, Jan Gottschalk

Financial Programming and Policies Yangon, Myanmar January 19 23, Jan Gottschalk A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Real Sector: Growth, Economic Fluctuations and Inflation Introductory Workshop to Financial Programming and Policies Yangon, Myanmar January 19 23, 2015 Jan Gottschalk

More information

Brazil Economic Outlook

Brazil Economic Outlook Economic Outlook London Alexandre Tombini Governor October 2013 1 Main topics Inflation Growth UMP Exit 2 Inflation adversely affected by supply shocks YoY % Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan

More information

Brazilian Economy. Recent Performance, Business Opportunities and Challenges Ahead. July, 2013

Brazilian Economy. Recent Performance, Business Opportunities and Challenges Ahead. July, 2013 Brazilian Economy Recent Performance, Business Opportunities and Challenges Ahead 1 July, 2013 Disclaimer This publication is based on the analysis and personal perspectives of a team of economists from

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 214 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Why rapid debt growth in China might be a risk Is China facing an imminent financial crisis? The rapid expansion of credit in China since

More information

Analysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period

Analysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period Analysis One Code Desc Transaction Amount Fiscal Period 57.63 Oct-12 12.13 Oct-12-38.90 Oct-12-773.00 Oct-12-800.00 Oct-12-187.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-110.00 Oct-12-1115.25 Oct-12-71.00 Oct-12-41.00

More information

Ghana's Economic Performance 2010

Ghana's Economic Performance 2010 GHANA STATISTICAL SERVICE (GSS) Statistics for Development and Progress Ghana's Economic Performance 21 i n f i g u r e s P.O. Box GP 198, Accra www. statsghana.gov.gh 211 Ghana's Economic Performance

More information

Japan s Economic Challenges

Japan s Economic Challenges Japan s Economic Challenges LUC EVERAERT ASIA PACIFIC DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO JANUARY 18, 216 1 Global Overview I. Global outlook and risks II. Prospects for Japan III.

More information

Post-Crisis Development Challenges: perspectives for Brazil and other BRICSs

Post-Crisis Development Challenges: perspectives for Brazil and other BRICSs Post-Crisis Development Challenges: perspectives for Brazil and other BRICSs Seminar Innovation, Development and the Global Crisis: BRICSs experience Rio de Janeiro, 16-17 November 2009 Luciano Coutinho

More information

Brazil Economic Weekly

Brazil Economic Weekly Macroeconomic Research Department Macroeconomic Research Department Brazil Economic Weekly April 30 th 2015 Support of credit growth in March was largely due to the effect of the currency depreciation

More information

Any comments and suggestions on the content of the publication are most welcome.

Any comments and suggestions on the content of the publication are most welcome. PREFACE The agro-processing industry is among the sectors identified by National Development Plan (NDP, 2011), Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP, 2015) and Agricultural Policy Action Plan (APAP, 2015)

More information

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault

More information

Argentina: A Case of Extreme Volatility. Mario I. Blejer

Argentina: A Case of Extreme Volatility. Mario I. Blejer Argentina: A Case of Extreme Volatility Mario I. Blejer 1 Quote from SFml.. Encyclopedia (1909): Argentina: (geog) Country in the southern end of the American continent... Given its vast natural resources

More information

Treasury Presentation to TBAC

Treasury Presentation to TBAC Treasury Presentation to TBAC Office of Debt Management Fiscal Year 2015 Q1 Report Table of Contents I. Fiscal II. A. Quarterly Tax Receipts p. 4 B. Monthly Receipt Levels p. 5 C. Eleven Largest Outlays

More information

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 26, 2013 Contents 1 Taxonomy of capital inflows 2 Risks and the prevention of problems 3 Economic outlook 2 Like other

More information

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014 Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

The Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities

The Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities Manuel Sánchez Santander Global Fixed Income Summit London, England, September 20, 2012 Contents 1 Structural features 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Economic challenges

More information

Consumer prices and the money supply

Consumer prices and the money supply Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen.

More information

MGE#12 The Balance of Payments

MGE#12 The Balance of Payments MGE#12 The Balance of Payments The Current Account, the Capital Account and the Balance of Payments Introduction to the Foreign Exchange Market Savings, Investment and the Current Account 1 From last session

More information

Brazil Economic Overview

Brazil Economic Overview Brazil Economic Overview Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce of Florida Alexandre Tombini Governor March 26, 2012 1 Brazil Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and

More information

Inflation Report. 1st Quarter, 2015. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Department Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency

Inflation Report. 1st Quarter, 2015. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Department Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Inflation Report 1st Quarter, 2015 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Department Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency This is a translation from Arabic report. The original report was published on 4 May

More information

Latin America s s Foreign Debt

Latin America s s Foreign Debt Latin America s s Foreign Debt Causes and Effects Internal Causes of the Debt Overvalued currency associated with ISI Returns on projects in future, but payments now: Debt trap Populist economic policies:

More information

Inflation in IRAN Overview & Forecast

Inflation in IRAN Overview & Forecast Research, Planning and Budgeting Division Economic Research Unit Feb. 2016 Inflation in IRAN Overview & Forecast Q1-2016 No.5 Research, Planning and Budgeting Division Economic Research Unit June. 2016

More information

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network

More information

NAV HISTORY OF DBH FIRST MUTUAL FUND (DBH1STMF)

NAV HISTORY OF DBH FIRST MUTUAL FUND (DBH1STMF) NAV HISTORY OF DBH FIRST MUTUAL FUND () Date NAV 11-Aug-16 10.68 8.66 0.38% -0.07% 0.45% 3.81% 04-Aug-16 10.64 8.66-0.19% 0.87% -1.05% 3.76% 28-Jul-16 10.66 8.59 0.00% -0.34% 0.34% 3.89% 21-Jul-16 10.66

More information

Effects on the Colombian Economy of the Quantitative Easing

Effects on the Colombian Economy of the Quantitative Easing Effects on the Colombian Economy of the Quantitative Easing Jorge Toro Chief Economist Banco de la República- Colombia IIF Annual Meeting of Latin America Chief Executives Santiago de Chile, March 5-7

More information

Lower coffee exports lend support to Robusta prices

Lower coffee exports lend support to Robusta prices Lower coffee exports lend support to Robusta prices The coffee market rallied slightly in June, led in most part by a recovery in Robusta prices. For the sixth month in a row exports were lower than last

More information

World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook World Economic Outlook Transitions and Tensions Rupa Duttagupta Deputy Division Chief Research Department, IMF United Nations, Project LINK Meetings, October 21, 213 1 Global growth dynamics are in transition

More information

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 16, 2016 Prepared by the UNL College of Business Administration, Department of Economics Authors: Dr. Eric Thompson, Dr. William Walstad Leading Economic

More information

Advanced economies driving global growth. Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering

Advanced economies driving global growth. Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering April 22, 2014 Advanced economies driving global growth Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering Interest rates remain favorable Investors recalibrating their portfolios More certainty in fiscal

More information

Russian economy in transition towards 2020 Young Leadership Programme on the Russian Forest Sector Joensuu 17 December 2014

Russian economy in transition towards 2020 Young Leadership Programme on the Russian Forest Sector Joensuu 17 December 2014 Russian economy in transition towards 22 Young Leadership Programme on the Russian Forest Sector Joensuu 17 December 21 Vesa Korhonen, Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT 2 1! The

More information

The Global Credit Crisis and China s Exchange Rate

The Global Credit Crisis and China s Exchange Rate The Global Credit Crisis and China s Exchange Rate Ronald McKinnon Brian Lee Yi David Wang Bond University Sydney, Australia April 9, 2010 Advantages of Stabilizing Yuan/Dollar Rate A Potted History 1995

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

The experience of Peru with financial dedollariza6on. Zenón Quispe Central Reserve Bank of Peru

The experience of Peru with financial dedollariza6on. Zenón Quispe Central Reserve Bank of Peru The experience of Peru with financial dedollariza6on Zenón Quispe Central Reserve Bank of Peru 01 Content 1. Dollarization: the main vulnerability of the Peruvian economy 2. Why are we dollarized? 3. Rebuilding

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

Results of Tourism Activity

Results of Tourism Activity Reporting Date: May 15, 2015 Results of Tourism Activity Mexico, March 2015 Costa, Oaxaca. San Blas, Nayarit. Centro de Convenciones Acapulco, Guerrero Loreto, Baja California Sur. Undersecretariat of

More information

Santander Asset Management Focus on LATAM. Sao Paulo, May 2011

Santander Asset Management Focus on LATAM. Sao Paulo, May 2011 Santander Asset Management Focus on LATAM Sao Paulo, May 2011 2 Santander Asset Management advise that this presentation contains representations regarding forecasts and estimates. Said forecasts and estimates

More information

The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program

The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program For MIT Energy Initiative Symposium May 12, 2014 Cambridge, MA By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S.

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN AUGUST 1 Global growth GDP growth in different regions for 1. Percent. IMF projections Sources: IMF and Norges Bank Russia: Lower growth prospects and sanctions

More information

Exchange Rates. Betty C. Daniel. University at Albany. Daniel (University at Albany) Exchange rates 1 / 17

Exchange Rates. Betty C. Daniel. University at Albany. Daniel (University at Albany) Exchange rates 1 / 17 Exchange Rates Betty C. Daniel University at Albany Daniel (University at Albany) Exchange rates 1 / 17 What is an exchange rate? Domestic-currency price of foreign currency Dollar price of euro is $1.46

More information

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? IMF STAFF POSITION NOTE March 18, 9 SPN/9/5 Why Has Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? Martin Sommer I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Why Has Been Hit

More information

Loi M Bakani: Commodity and food prices, inflation and monetary policy in Papua New Guinea

Loi M Bakani: Commodity and food prices, inflation and monetary policy in Papua New Guinea Loi M Bakani: Commodity and food prices, inflation and monetary policy in Papua New Guinea Presentation by Mr Loi M Bakani, Governor of the Bank of Papua New Guinea, to the National Research Institute

More information

UNITED NATIONS SECRETARIAT BACKGROUND NOTE:

UNITED NATIONS SECRETARIAT BACKGROUND NOTE: DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTED UNITED NATIONS SECRETARIAT BACKGROUND NOTE: A COORDINATED POLICY SCENARIO FOR JOB CREATION AND STRONGER GLOBAL GROWTH WITH MEDIUM- TERM REDUCTION OF PUBLIC DEBT RATIOS AND BENIGN

More information

Global Summit of Women 2015 Doing Business With Brazil. A New Road Ahead

Global Summit of Women 2015 Doing Business With Brazil. A New Road Ahead Global Summit of Women 215 Doing Business With Brazil A New Road Ahead May 215 Denise Pavarina Managing Director of Bradesco Anbima s Chair Brazil: A market friendly place for your business. Financial

More information

BTMU Focus Latin America Brazil: Macroeconomic Performance

BTMU Focus Latin America Brazil: Macroeconomic Performance BTMU Focus Latin America Brazil: Macroeconomic Performance (1 GDP and Current Monthly Indicators) MUFG UNION BANK Economic Research (New York) Hongrui Zhang Latin America Economist hozhang@us.mufg.jp +1(1)7-7

More information

Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook. 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015

Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook. 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015 Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015 AGENDA Commodity Price & Food Consumption Context Worldwide Agriculture

More information

Disclosure of 1Q15 Results

Disclosure of 1Q15 Results Disclosure of 1Q15 Results Investor Relations Presentation: José Rubens de la Rosa CEO José Antonio Valiati CFO & Investor Relations Officer Thiago Deiro Finance & Investor Relations Manager Caxias do

More information

Golden Ocean Group Limited Q3 2006 results December 1, 2006

Golden Ocean Group Limited Q3 2006 results December 1, 2006 Golden Ocean Group Limited Q3 2006 results December 1, 2006 PROFIT & LOSS 2005 2006 (in thousands of $) 2006 2005 2005 Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jan - Sep Jan - Sep Jan - Dec Operating Revenues 26,265 66,431 Time

More information

10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS

10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS 10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS AGENDA 1. Perú Macro Environment 2. The need for a Pension System Reform 3. The Private Pension System 4. AFP Integra 5. Multifondos 6. The Future 1 1. Peru - Macro

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Professor Richard Barkham, PhD MRICS Global Chief Economist MIDDLE EAST CRISIS 2 3 SO HERE S GDP GROWTH WITH RECESSIONS HIGHLIGHTED U.S. GDP growth % Change, Y-o-Y GEOPOLITICS 8.0

More information

Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015 Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate Wednesday, August 12, 2015 WHAT HAVE CHINESE POLICY MAKERS DONE IN REGARD TO SETTING THEIR EXCHANGE RATE? Each day at 9.15am in Beijing the People s Bank of China

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions

PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017 Box 1 Projection assumptions Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 1. Introduction Projections

More information

Impacts of Government Jobs in Lake County Oregon

Impacts of Government Jobs in Lake County Oregon Impacts of Government Jobs in Lake County Oregon April 2011 Prepared by Betty Riley, Executive Director South Central Oregon Economic Development District Annual Average Pay Based on Oregon Labor Market

More information

RECENT TRENDS IN SELECTED NEBRASKA ECONOMIC NUMBERS Updated August 19, 2016

RECENT TRENDS IN SELECTED NEBRASKA ECONOMIC NUMBERS Updated August 19, 2016 RECENT TRENDS IN SELECTED NEBRASKA ECONOMIC NUMBERS Updated August 19, 2016 LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT: Preliminary numbers from the Nebraska Department Labor show the state s not seasonally adjusted

More information

Consumer Price Developments in February 2014

Consumer Price Developments in February 2014 l1;yah Consumer Price Developments in February 2014 CPI-All Items inflation came in lower at 0.4% y-o-y in February CPI-All Items inflation fell to 0.4% in February from 1.4% in January. This decline had

More information

Illinois Job Index. Jan 2012 Negative. Talking Points. Illinois Notes. Nation Notes. www.real.illinois.edu

Illinois Job Index. Jan 2012 Negative. Talking Points. Illinois Notes. Nation Notes. www.real.illinois.edu Illinois Job Index Release Data Issue 01/31/2011 Jan 1990 / Dec 2011 2012.01 www.real.illinois.edu For November Illinois Job Index, the state and the Nation had positive job growth, the RMW had negative

More information

HSBC Brazil update Presentation to Investors

HSBC Brazil update Presentation to Investors HSBC Brazil update Presentation to Investors André Brandão Martin Peusner Chief Executive Officer HSBC Brazil Chief Financial Officer HSBC Brazil May 2012 1 Forward-looking statements This presentation

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges Sergey Grygoryev Contents: Part 1. Trade

More information

Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank. Russian Banks After the Crisis

Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank. Russian Banks After the Crisis Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank Russian Banks After the Crisis Russia 27: Unaffected by subprime turmoil Assets breakdown US vs. Russia, % of assets Others, 27% US Securities, 2% Others, 3% Russia

More information

Assignment Unit06. This is a preview of the draft version of the quiz. Published Preview Edit. Quiz Type. Points. Assignment Group.

Assignment Unit06. This is a preview of the draft version of the quiz. Published Preview Edit. Quiz Type. Points. Assignment Group. You submitted this quiz late, and your answers may not have been recorded. Published Preview Edit Assignment Unit06 This is a preview of the draft version of the quiz Quiz Type Points Assignment Group

More information

Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 19 March 2004

Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 19 March 2004 Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 9 March SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Monetary policy regulation. Monetary policy shall be aimed at stability in the

More information

Brazilian Economy Outlook

Brazilian Economy Outlook th edition March 2010 Brazilian Economy Outlook Summary Economic Activity 5 Mass Consumer Market 27 Inflation 35 Interest Rates and Credit 43 International Overview Reduction of External Vulnerability

More information

Fact Sheet. (data as at 31 March 2016)

Fact Sheet. (data as at 31 March 2016) Research Office Legislative Council Secretariat Fact Sheet Hong Kong in figures (data as at 31 March 2016) FS01/15-16 International/regional ranking 2014 2015 World competitiveness (among 60 places) (1)

More information

The Real Economic Recovery has Finally Stood Up

The Real Economic Recovery has Finally Stood Up The Real Economic Recovery has Finally Stood Up Mark Partridge Presented at OSU VP Economic Outlook December 3, 212 Swank Chair in Rural-Urban Policy (Partridge.27@osu.edu) Department of Agricultural,

More information

Brazil Economic Outlook

Brazil Economic Outlook Brazil Economic Outlook 2 ND QUARTER 2016 LATIN AMERICA UNIT 01 Economic activity will continue to weaken while the political environment should remain turbulent 02 GDP will fall around 3.0% in 2016, driven

More information

4Q15. Management Discussion & Analysis and Complete Financial Statements

4Q15. Management Discussion & Analysis and Complete Financial Statements 4Q15 Management Discussion & Analysis and Complete Financial Statements CONTENTS 03 Management Discussion & Analysis 05 Executive Summary 15 Income Statement and Balance Sheet Analysis 16 18 22 25 28 33

More information

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,

More information

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international

More information

Mexico in the face of slowing emerging economies. Manuel Sánchez

Mexico in the face of slowing emerging economies. Manuel Sánchez Manuel Sánchez Adam Smith Seminar Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest, November 10, 2015 Contents 1 Soft economic rebound 2 Coping with higher risk aversion 3 Tamed inflation 2 Since 2014, global growth

More information