Backing the companies of tomorrow. //////////////////////////////////////////// Creandum Nordic Technology Exit Analysis

Transcription

1 Backing the companies of tomorrow //////////////////////////////////////////// Creandum Nordic Technology Exit Analysis 1

2 Creandum exit database Database with 300+ private technology company exits 20+ parameters covered including exit value, exit revenue, exit type, years from inception to exit Companies from Denmark, Finland, Norway & Sweden Focus on VC & angel investments no buyout or privatizations Exit value ( m) of companies at time of trade sale or IPO EXCLUDING Life science, retail, energy (oil & gas etc) & environmental and consulting Focus on exit information, not best practice for VC investment Sources include official information (web sites, press releases, newspaper articles, annual reports) as well as financial resources & databases Feel free to use material but please mention the source 2

3 A global view on VC-backed companies VC-backed companies: invested capital & exits % 90% 6% 5% 9% 23% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 78% 4% 12% 57% 3% 35% 68% 2% 21% 49% 2% 26% Total capital invested Total no. of exits No. of exits > 100 MUSD No. of home runs: 10x cap vs. Invested China/India US Israel Europe Sources: EVCA 3

4 Nordic technology firms represent a significant portion of global BUSD exits Nordic companies represented 9% of all global billion dollar technology exits during BUSD Technology Exits % 9% In terms of M&A exit value for VC-backed technology companies, the Nordics represented ~18% vs the US during the same period but only 5% of active VC firms (likely even lower percentage of capital) 35% 18% Sample of recent significant BUSD Nordic company exits: 32% Nordic (3) US (11) IPO: 6.7 BUSD M&A: 2.75 BUSD Rest of Europe (6) Others (2) China (12) IPO: 1 BUSD M&A: 1 BUSD Sources: NVCA, EVCA, Thompson, Dow Jones, Creandum, Balderton 4

5 and a disproportionally large portion of Europe Billion dollar exits 33,0% Deloitte Europe Fast-500 companies 27,6% Amount of VC investment 14,0% Last 5 years: Nordics Rest of Europe Europe s 100 largest software companies 22,0% Olympic gold medals* 21,0% Population 3,5% *Includes all gold medals between for existing and previous European countries Sources: EVCA, Thompson, Dow Jones, Creandum, Truffle, Deloitte, International Olympic Committee 5

6 The Nordics is one of the world s most attractive regions for a VC Rank Best Countries To Start a Company 1 Global Innovation Index 2 R&D as % of GDP 3 Researchers per 1000 employed 3 Global Competitiveness Index 4 Corruption Perceptions Index 5 1 Denmark Iceland Israel Finland Switzerland Denmark 2 Canada Sweden Sweden Iceland Sweden New Zealand 3 United States Hong Kong Finland Denmark Singapore Singapore 4 Sweden Switzerland United States Sweden United States Finland 5 New Zealand Denmark Denmark Norway Germany Sweden 6 Ireland Finland Austria Austria Japan Canada 7 Switzerland Singapore Iceland United Kingdom Finland Netherlands 8 Norway Netherlands France Estonia Netherlands Australia 9 Iceland New Zealand Belgium Slovenia Denmark Switzerland 10 Netherlands Norway United Kingdom Luxembourg Canada Norway Sources: 1) Small Business Administration's Office of Advocacy 2) INSEAD 3) OECD 2010 Factbook 4) World Economic Forum 5) Transparency International CPI

7 and the Nordic tech opportunity is big and increasing 7 000,0 MEUR Total Nordic exit value (MEUR) 6 000, , , ,0 2.6 BEUR 2 000, ,0 0,0 1.4 BEUR Avg. annual exit value Avg. annual exit value Exit year Average exit value per year for the last 12 years is 2 BEUR Total exit market value increased 80% between economic cycle in and % of M&As & IPOs represent 82% of total exit value Sources: EVCA, Thompson, Dow Jones, Creandum 7

8 The Nordic region consistently produces a significant number of winners Tech exits larger than 100 MEUR M&A: 940 MEUR M&A: 961 MEUR IPO: 514 MEUR IPO: 474 MEUR M&A: 600 MEUR M&A: 230 MEUR M&A: 169 MEUR IPO: 189 MEUR IPO: 191 MEUR SendIt M&A: 120 MEUR IPO: 383 MEUR IPO: 347 MEUR Jobline M&A: 284 MEUR IPO: 200 MEUR IPO: 167 MEUR IPO: 491 MEUR IPO: 430 MEUR IPO: 254 MEUR M&A: 135 MEUR 1 MEUR 10 MEUR 50 MEUR Revenue Median P/S: 15 Median Rev: 21 MEUR Sources: Creandum 8

9 and the trend is towards more solid businesses with considerable revenues Tech exits larger than 100 MEUR M&A: 645 MEUR M&A: 282 MEUR IPO: 732 MEUR IPO: MEUR M&A: 473 MEUR M&A: 258 MEUR M&A: 645 MEUR M&A: MEUR M&A: 172 MEUR M&A: 162 MEUR IPO: 415 MEUR M&A: 222 MEUR M&A: 150 MEUR* M&A: 196 MEUR M&A: 140 MEUR M&A: 186 MEUR M&A: 109 MEUR M&A: 121 MEUR 1 MEUR 10 MEUR 50 MEUR M&A: 100 MEUR IPO: 198 MEUR Revenue Median P/S: 6 Median Rev: 52 MEUR *Part of Kelkoo exit Sources: Creandum 9

10 Nordic VC allocation is required to capture the value of the region 100% % of Nordic exits with VCs from Nordic, UK & Rest of Europe % 60% 40% Nordic VC UK VC Rest of Europe VC 20% 0% >=10 >=50 >=100 Exit value Intervals (MEUR) Nordic VCs present in ~90% of all exits larger than 100 MEUR with venture capital Non-Nordic VCs are on average only represented in 1.3 Nordic exit deals each Sources: EVCA, Thompson, Dow Jones, Creandum 10

11 Nordic VC allocation is required to capture the value of the region Exits Number and average value of exits between M , ,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 Number of IPO Number of M&A Average exit value ,0 Exit opportunity closely connected to general economy situation More exit value created in latest boom (2005 & 2006) than 1999 & 2000 M&A represents ~80% of exits and has been dominant since (Norway is the exception in terms of IPO) 11

12 IPO and trade sale to US most important for large exits Exit value distribution for trade sale & IPO 8% Exits 100% Nr of exits for trade sale & IPO per exit interval 90% 80% 70% RoW 48% 35% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% US Other nordic country Inside country IPO 10% 4% 5% 0% =< M Lack of larger Nordic exit opportunities since IPO-market dried up Larger exits very dependent on US exit market VC investors in 100% of exits larger than 500M and 73% of exits larger than 100M (% of total exits) 12

13 Sweden and Norway has created majority of exit value % of Nordic exits and exit value per country % % 10.5Bn 40% 7.9Bn Number of exits 30% 20% 10% Bn Bn Exit value Number of IPO Company value at IPO 0% Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Swedish & Norwegian companies represent 69% of exits & 76% of exit value Large portion of Norway exits through IPO (REC 5.1Bn) Denmark mostly strong exit market before 2001 Finland: some big IPOs before 2001, then small domestic exits 13

14 Internet and software are two most important sectors Exit value: 23.7 Bn Nr of exits: ,8% 28,4% 8,7% 5,6% 0,9% Software Internet Services 45,0% 6,3% Systems Components 14,3% Operator 9,5% 22,2% Materials 10,7% 25,5% Software & Internet: 71% of exits & 51% of exit value (65% excl. REC) Software companies are exited in all value intervals System & components companies: either large exit or fire sale Operators create significant exits but are expensive to build 14

15 Wrapping up The Nordic region produces great companies Nordic region is producing winners with less capital invested than the US Need to channel more capital into business opportunities which can be winners and less into underperformers Technology sector is maturing substantial revenues required It takes time to build great companies but if you are not growing you are getting left behind requires scalability and strong sales focus International footprint is important the exit market is primarily outside the Nordic region 15