Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012

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1 Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012 Introduction For the fifth consecutive year, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published the Consumer Credit Overview, its yearly report on the international consumer finance market. 11 th, July

2 Summary Worldwide outstanding consumer loans can be estimated at 6,383 billion at the end of This represents an increase of 5.9% over the year, i.e. more than in However, adjusted for inflation, the increase is more modest at around 2%. The market is still characterised by a very predominant weighting of developed countries and North America in particular. But the weighting of developed countries is tending to decline in favour of emerging markets. Outstanding loans increased only slightly in developed countries. Among these countries, only Canada and the United States saw a significant rise in outstanding loans in 2012 (+2.8% and +5.8% respectively, bringing growth in North America to 5.5%). The European Union went through a further period of recession, resulting in a fall in outstanding loans in Excluding Russia and Turkey, outstanding loans in Europe fell by 1.7%. Outstanding loans were down 1.4% in Australia for regulatory reasons, meaning a fall of 1% for the Oceania region as a whole. In Japan, the 0.6% fall in outstanding loans was due to deflation. Meanwhile, outstanding loans rose sharply in the majority of emerging markets. Economic growth in these countries has been accompanied by more than proportional growth in outstanding loans. A certain level of development is necessary for the consumer finance market to emerge. Once this threshold has been reached - estimated at 2,500 per capita - outstanding loans increase at a rapid rate. Despite an economic slowdown in 2012, growth in outstanding consumer loans has not weakened in emerging markets. In 2012, the strongest growth was in Russia (+43%), Argentina (+35%), Thailand and Azerbaijan (+32%). In some countries, however, growth in outstanding loans is partly due to continuing inflation (Argentina). Outstanding loans per capita are estimated at 910 at the end of There are still considerable discrepancies between each continent ( 96 in Africa, 5,620 in North America). Growth in outstanding loans in emerging markets is brought down by population growth in these countries. Excluding inflation, 2012 was the first year that outstanding loans per capita increased since Page 2

3 Methodology & disclaimer The outstanding consumer loans figures provided in this report come from central banks or national statistics offices. These figures have been collected by research and consulting firm Asterès, which has endeavoured to respect a uniform product and market field: The figures cover banking and non-banking organisations (i.e. all credit institutions). They include - as far as the source data allow - bank overdrafts, but exclude mortgages, even for everyday consumer purposes. To allow for a market comparison, figures have been converted into euros at the average prevailing exchange rate for This can explain some major variations in outstandings from one year to the next. For example, Asia accounts for a larger proportion of international outstanding loans this year due to the rise in Asian currencies against the euro. Past outstandings are converted at the same exchange rate, meaning that growth rates are representative of the market and not impacted by variations in exchange rates. The figures provided in this report should be regarded as estimates, which cannot be guaranteed to be fully accurate. The quality of statistics taken from the primary source - often central banks - varies. The field of non-banking operators is unequally covered. Lastly, these statistics are often revised. In the absence of sufficiently accurate public data, outstanding loan data for a certain number of emerging markets - such as China, Algeria etc. - have been estimated by Asterès. For the requirements of this report, the world has been divided into six regions: North America South America Europe Africa Asia and the Middle East Oceania Most of these regions are defined in their usual geographical sense. However, the following points should be noted: In addition to the 27 countries of the European Union, Europe includes: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia, Russia and Turkey. Mexico is treated as part of North America. South America includes countries in Central Europe. The Middle East is treated as part of Asia. Page 3

4 Map of the international consumer credit market Outstanding consumer loans at end-2012 Worldwide market: 6,383bn Page 4

5 Outstanding loans are mainly in the northern hemisphere North America is the largest consumer finance market, accounting for 41% of the world s total outstanding consumer loans. The United States is very predominant in this region, representing 83% of outstanding loans for the region or one-third of outstanding loans worldwide. It is followed by Asia-Middle East (29%) and Europe (22%). Developed countries therefore still account for the majority of the world s outstanding loans. The weighting of Asia-Middle East is due to the presence in the region of developed countries such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Israel, as well as the demographic weighting of China, which makes it a large market, despite a still modest level of outstanding loans per capita. South America, Africa and Oceania still account for a very small proportion of total outstanding loans worldwide. Three-quarters of African countries have a GDP of less than 2,500 per capita. Below this threshold, the consumer finance market struggles to emerge. In South America, most countries are above this threshold but are not yet at the level of GDP (around 8,000 per capita) above which outstanding loans per capita become significant outstanding consumer loans by continent ( bn) Proportion of worldwide outstanding loans (%) North America Asia and Middle East South America 5% Africa 2% Oceania 1% Being updated Europe South America Africa Oceania Europe 22% Asia and Middle East 29% North America 41% estimates Page 5

6 Year-on on-year growth in outstanding consumer loans at end-2012 Worldwide market: +5.9% Page 6

7 Acceleration in growth in outstanding loans in 2012 Worldwide outstanding consumer loans increased by 5.9% between the end of 2011 and the end of Adjusted for inflation, outstanding loans increased by around 2%. Growth in outstanding loans was stronger than in 2010 and Change in worldwide outstanding loans ( bn) (currencies converted at the average exchange rate for 2012) +5.9% The rate of growth in outstanding loans varies considerably depending on the continent. Essentially, outstanding loans increased sharply in emerging markets and stagnated or declined in developed countries - with the exception of the United States and Canada. Asia and the Middle East therefore contributed 38% to worldwide growth in 2012 (i.e. an additional 133bn). The contribution from North America was the same, followed by South America (11%), Europe (10%) and Africa (4%) % % % These figures may vary from one year to the next due to revisions made by the central banks and changes in exchange rates. Page 7

8 Slowdown in Latin America, acceleration in Africa Growth in outstanding loans relates primarily to the region s economic growth and how well developed the consumer finance market is. Regulatory changes can also have a significant impact on outstanding loans. Economic growth in Europe was weak in The European Union experienced another period of recession and outstanding consumer loans fell by 1.9%. Excluding Russia and Turkey, outstanding loans fell by 1.7% in Europe in In Australia, meanwhile, growth was robust. While the level of outstanding loans decreased in the country - and therefore in Oceania, as other countries account for a very small proportion of the region s loans - this was because of new regulatory requirements that came into force in The United States saw a return to more vigorous economic growth, resulting in acceleration in outstanding consumer loans in North America. Economic growth slowed down in South America. Furthermore, outstanding loans had risen by such an extent during previous years that growth of more than 20% was no longer sustainable. Growth in outstanding loans therefore slowed down. Growth in outstanding loans by region ,5% 14,9% 5,5% 2,6% -1,0% 7,7% Oceania Europe North America Asia and Middle East South America Africa Page 8

9 Change in outstanding loans by country In 2012, the strongest growth in outstanding loans was in Russia (+43%), followed by Argentina (+35%). The sharpest fall was in Ireland (-14%). Growth in outstanding loans by region In the Asia-Middle East region, Japan constitutes an exception, with outstanding loans in the country having fallen more or less steadily over the last 20 or so years. Japan is in a situation of deflation, prompting households to reduce their debts. In the majority of other countries in the region, outstanding consumer loans are on the increase, with moderate growth in the most developed countries (+2% in Israel, +3% in South Korea), or very strong growth in emerging markets (+32% in Thailand and Azerbaijan, +18% in China - including Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan). Generally speaking, in a large number of emerging markets in Africa, Asia and even Europe, the consumer finance market is still taking off. This means exponential growth in outstanding loans, even when there is a slight slowdown in overall economic growth. However, these countries are not sheltered from potentially significant fluctuations. Regulatory changes in particular can have a pronounced impact. Algeria represents an extreme case in this regard, with the country having banned consumer loans in Data not available, country estimated to have grown Page 9

10 Outstanding loans per capita at end-2012 Worldwide average: 910 Page 10

11 Still major disparities in outstanding loans per capita At the end of 2012, the average level of worldwide outstanding consumer loans was 910, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Outstanding loans per capita are highest in North America ( 5,620). The United States is just above this regional average ( 6,888 per capita). Canada has the highest level of outstanding loans per capita in the world ( 11,677). Average outstanding loans are much lower in Mexico ( 355). Outstanding loans per capita stand at 2,615 in Oceania, a more uniform region ( 3,628 in Australia, 1,953 in New Zealand). Average outstanding loans amount to 1,706 in Europe. Levels vary considerably across the continent: outstanding loans per capita are highest in Norway ( 6,410) and lowest in Ukraine ( 272). The market is still not very developed in Russia, with outstanding loans per capita of 989, i.e. half the average level for the European Union ( 2,099). Outstanding loans per capita amount to 451 in Asia-Middle East. The greatest disparities are to be found in this region. The market is not very well developed in India ( 47 per capita, but with pronounced inequalities by area). Meanwhile, average outstanding loans per capita in Singapore stand at 7,495. North America Oceania Outstanding loans per capita at end-2012 (in ) Outstanding loans per capita amount to 651 in South America. Levels are relatively uniform across the continent. In most large countries, the consumer finance market is at an intermediate stage of growth. Europe South America Asia and Middle East However, the market is not very advanced in Africa, where outstanding loans are estimated at 96 per capita (less than 40 excluding South Africa). Africa 96 Page 11

12 Top 15: growth in emerging markets, decline in developed markets Outstanding consumer loans for the world s top 15 markets ( bn at average exchange rate for 2012) The United States is still the world s largest consumer finance market, with outstanding loans valued at 2,162bn at the end of United States Japan China* Canada United Kingdom Germany Brazil South Korea France Russia The top 15 markets remain the same but their order has changed: Several emerging markets have moved up one or two positions: Turkey has moved from 15th to 14th place, Indonesia from 14th to 12th place, and Russia from 12th to 10th place. Several developed markets have fallen one or two positions: Spain has moved from 13th to 15th place, Australia from 11th to 13th place, and Italy from 11th to 12th place. Italy 110 Indonesia Australia Turkey Spain In the absence of official data, outstanding loan data for China has been estimated. This estimate has been revised upwards. The Chinese market is growing rapidly (+18% in 2012) and is now the world s third-largest consumer finance market. Sources: Central banks * Asterès estimate Outstanding loans for China include Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Page 12

13 Focus on Asian emerging markets Consumer finance is growing rapidly in emerging markets in Asia. Outstanding loans per capita remain low but are rising rapidly. The level of outstanding loans per capita reflects how developed the country is. Outstanding loans remain low when GDP per capita is below a threshold that can be valued at 2,500 per capita (in 2012). India and the Philippines are still below this threshold, while China and Indonesia have passed this threshold. Once certain growth markers have been passed, the pace of market development speeds up, as is demonstrated by the change in average outstanding loans in Thailand, where GDP per capita is slightly higher than in China Outstanding consumer loans per capita ( ) Thailand Indonesia China incl. Macao, Taiwan, Hong Kong India Outstanding loans per capita should therefore increase significantly in China and Indonesia over the next few years, while the market is expected to begin to take off in India and the Philippines Philippines NB: outstanding consumer loan data for China have been estimated. The Bank of China no longer publishes consumer finance statistics (its data combine consumer finance and home loans). Page 13

14 Focus on South America The sharp rise in outstanding loans in South America was confirmed in The continent is at an intermediate stage of development. Outstanding loans per capita are between 400 and 1,200, i.e. much higher than in emerging countries in Africa and Asia ( 50 to 600 per capita) Outstanding consumer loans per capita ( ) Chile Market growth slowed down slightly in 2012 due to a slowdown in Brazil, the region s largest market. 800 Brazil Meanwhile, growth in outstanding loans per capita was more pronounced in Chile and Argentina. Chile is the fastest-growing market. One-third of growth in Argentina relates to the continuing high rate of inflation (around 10%). Inflation is more moderate in other countries Uruguay Argentina Peru Page 14

15 A wide variety of companies and brands Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance is a key player in the European consumer finance market with 73.2 billion of consumer credit outstandings under management at end Through its subsidiaries, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance operates in twenty European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK), as well as in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and China. At end-2012, two-thirds of outstandings under management came from international operations. Page 15

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