A Global Forecast

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1 252 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 Pioneers of Energy Transition - Conference Vienna, Austria October 1 th, 212

2 12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2

3 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output 1 1: Population : Pollution level Year 21 5 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3

4 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 3: Industrial output : Food output 5 5 1: Population : Pollution level Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4

5 Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world Source: KPMG, 21 J Randers 5

6 Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 29 J Randers 6

7 For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website

8 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population GDP GDP per person (billion (trillion (1 people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year) US, China 13 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 8

9 World population will peak in 24 Gpersons 1 %/yr 5, Population 8 ( scale) 4, 6 3, 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2, 2 Death rate 1, g database with slides Graph , Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 9

10 World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 1,$ / person-yr Gp 15 6, Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) ) 9 World GDP ( scale) 4,8 3, ,4 2.4 Gross labor 3 productivity (scale ) 1,2 1.2 g database with slides Graph 3a Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity,. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 1

11 Share of GDP in investment will grow % 4 G$ / yr Investment share in GDP 24 ( scale) World GDP (scale ) ) Consumption (scale ) g database with slides Graph Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 11

12 Energy use will peak in 24 Gtoe / yr 2 toe / M$ 3 G$ / yr Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) World GDP (scale ) ) 6 6 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 12

13 Gtoe / yr 6,5 Fossil fuels will prevail 5,2 Coal use 3,9 Oil use 2,6 1,3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use, Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 197 to 252 g database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 13

14 World CO 2 emissions will peak in 23 GtCO2 / yr 5 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr 25 CO2 emissions 4 Climate intensity ( scale) 4 2 = CO2 per unit of energy 3 (scale ) ) Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 197 to 25. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 14

15 Temperature and sea-level will rise ppm 5 deg C 2,5 m CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) 3 Temperature rise (scale ) ) 2, 1, Sea level rise (scale ) 1,5.3 1,.6 g database with slides Graph , Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 15

16 Average disposable income 197 to 25 (in 25 PPP $ per person-year) WORLD BRISE China USA OECD less US RoW Residual Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 16

17 Democratic decision making takes time COP 15 meeting in December 29 J Randers 17

18 What should be done? Globally 1. Slow population growth: Have fewer children, particularly in the rich world 2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels, first in the rich world 3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly energy system in the poor world 4. Temper short-termism: Establish supranational institutions 5. Establish new goals: Increase societal wellbeing in a world without growth J Randers 18

19 What should be done? Pioneer regions 1. Be in favour of small families and optimal degree of centralisation 2. Increase energy efficiency (GDP/energy) and fraction renewable energy (GDP/CO2) 3. Focus on climate-friendly transport, housing and air travel individually or collectively 4. Remember this is primarily a political challenge: To make voters support wise policy even if expensive in the short term J Randers 19

20 I don t like what I see! J Randers 2

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