WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2014 FACTSHEET OVERVIEW

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1 OVERVIEW More than $1.6 trillion was invested in 2013 in energy supply, a figure that has more than doubled in real terms since 2000, and a further $130 billion to improve energy efficiency. Renewables are playing a growing role, with annual investing increasing from $60 billion in 2000 to a high point approaching $300 billion in 2011, before falling back since to $250 billion. The largest share of current investment, more than $1 trillion per year, is related to the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, oil refining and the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants. To 2035, annual investment needs in the New Policies Scenario rise steadily towards $2 trillion, while annual spending on energy efficiency increases to $550 billion. This means a cumulative global investment bill of more than $48 trillion, consisting of around $ trillion in energy supply and the remainder in energy efficiency. The main components of energy supply investment are $23 trillion in fossil fuel extraction, transport and oil refining; almost $10 trillion in power generation, of which low-carbon technologies renewables ($6 trillion) and nuclear ($1 trillion) account for almost three-quarters; and a further $7 trillion in transmission and distribution. Less than half of the $ trillion investment in energy supply goes to meet growth in demand; the larger share is required to offset declining production from existing oil and gas fields and to replace power plants and other assets that reach the end of their productive life. These declines and retirements set a major investment challenge for policy makers and the industry, but they also represent a real opportunity to change the nature of the energy system by switching fuels or deploying more efficient technologies. Nearly two-thirds of energy-supply investment takes place in emerging economies, with the focus for investment moving beyond China to other parts of Asia plus Africa and Latin America; but ageing infrastructure and climate policies create large requirements also across the OECD. The largest share of energy efficiency spending is in the European Union, North America and China. Decisions to commit capital to the energy sector are increasingly shaped by government policy measures and incentives, rather than by signals coming from competitive markets. In the oil sector, reliance on countries with more restrictive terms of access to their resources is set to grow, as output from North America plateaus and then falls back from the mid-2020s onwards. In the electricity sector, administrative signals or regulated rates of return have become, by far, the most important drivers for investment. Against this backdrop, mobilising private investors and capital will require a concerted effort to reduce political and regulatory uncertainties. New types of investors in the energy sector are emerging, but the supply of long-term finance on suitable terms is still far from guaranteed. Much of the dynamism in energy markets is coming from smaller market players or new entrants; these players tend to rely on external sources of financing. Outside North America (where external financing is more readily available), there is a need to unlock new sources of finance, via growth of bond, securitisation and equity markets and, potentially, by tapping into the large funds held by institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurers. This would help to diminish undue reliance on the relatively short maturity of loans available from the banking sector, which may be constrained by new capital adequacy requirements (the Basel III accord) in the wake of the financial crisis. Getting the world on a 2 C emissions path would mean a different investment landscape (and a breakthrough at the Paris 2015 COP). A 450 Scenario would require $53 trillion in cumulative investment to 2035: around $ trillion in energy supply (a figure comparable to the New Policies Scenario but with lower fossil fuels and higher renewables) and $14 trillion in energy efficiency ($6 trillion higher than in the New Policies Scenario). By 2035, investment in low-carbon energy supply rises to almost $900 billion and spending on energy efficiency exceeds $1 trillion, double the respective amounts seen in 2035 in the New Policies Scenario.

2 FOSSIL FUELS Annual capital expenditure on oil, gas and coal extraction, transportation and on oil refining has more than doubled in real terms since 2000 to surpass $950 billion in The epicentre of increased oil and gas investment activity has been North America, with the rapid expansion of shale gas and tight oil output, but investment in other parts of the world has also been on an upward trend. Annual investment in upstream oil and gas rises in the New Policies Scenario by a quarter to more than $850 billion by 2035, with gas accounting for most of the increase. More than 80% of the cumulative $17.5 trillion in upstream oil and gas spending is required to compensate for decline at existing oil and gas fields. Around one-quarter of the total goes to producing unconventional resources, e.g. oil sands, tight oil, shale gas. Gradual depletion of the most accessible reserves forces companies to move to develop more challenging fields; although offset in part by technology learning, this puts pressure on upstream costs and underpins an oil price that rises to reach $128/barrel in real terms by Importers of fossil fuels rely for secure supply on the adequacy of investment in resource-rich countries; the investment needed to supply India and China with imported oil and gas over the period to 2035 is more than $2 trillion, a level that helps to explain the push by their national oil companies to secure investment opportunities abroad. Investment in coal supply is much less expensive per equivalent unit of output than oil or gas; cumulative requirements in mining amount to $735 billion, with a further $300 billion in transportation infrastructure (mainly railways). China accounts for around % of total capital expenditure. Elements excluded from these investment numbers, i.e. the actual mining operation plus the costs of transporting the coal, typically account for a large share of the delivered cost of coal. Meeting long-term oil demand growth depends increasingly on the Middle East, once the current rise in non-opec supply starts to run out of steam in the 2020s. Yet there is a risk that Middle East investment fails to pick up in time to avert a shortfall in supply, because of an uncertain investment climate in some countries and the priority often given to spending in other areas. The result would be tighter and more volatile oil markets, with an average price almost $15/barrel higher in 2025 ($130/barrel vs $116/barrel in the New Policies Scenario). High transportation costs for gas, compared with other fuels, are a constraint on the prospect of more globalised gas markets. More than $700 billion invested in LNG over the period to 2035 accelerates the integration of regional gas markets and has the potential to reduce current price differentials. However, the high cost of many liquefaction projects and cost inflation could dampen the hopes of LNG buyers for more affordable supply. Europe s near-term perspective for expanding LNG purchases is constrained by the need to outbid Asian consumers for available gas. Even with widespread deployment of CCS technology, the 450 Scenario sees a significant fall in the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix, from the current 82% to 65% in 2035, compared with 76% in 2035 in the New Policies Scenario. Of the fossil fuels, only natural gas consumption is higher in 2035 than today. At $19.2 trillion, total investment in gas, oil and coal is more than $4 trillion lower than the $23.5 required in the New Policies Scenario, but still accounts for around half of total supply-side investment. Financing the transition to a low-carbon energy system is a major challenge, requiring strong policy and price signals to ensure that low-carbon and energy efficiency investments offer a sufficiently attractive risk-adjusted return. Our estimate of fossil fuel investments left stranded in the 450 Scenario is around $300 billion, although lack of clarity over policy could increase this risk.

3 POWER SECTOR Global investment in the power sector increased almost two-and-a-half times from $290 billion in 2000 to $690 billion in 2011, tailing off since. Investment in power generation capacities more than tripled from $130 billion to peak at $4 billion in It declined by 5% in 2012 and by another 3% in 2013, largely due to cost reductions in variable renewables technologies. Investment in renewable energies accounted for almost 60% of the total power plant investment over while the remainder was spent on thermal power plants (fossil-fuels and nuclear). Over , cumulative investment of $16.4 trillion is needed across the power sector an annual average of $7 billion per year. About 58% of power sector investment is allocated to the construction of new power plants and refurbishment of existing ones; the remainder is used to build and refurbish T&D networks. OECD countries account for $6.2 trillion, mainly to replace ageing infrastructure and meet decarbonisation targets. In non-oecd countries, governments need to facilitate a larger role for private capital to raise the $10 trillion needed to expand networks and generation capacity to meet rapid demand growth. More than 60% of the global power plant investments over are spent on renewables while fossil-fuelled plants account for almost 30% and nuclear for the remainder. Wind accounts for 34% of the expenditure on renewables followed by hydro (26%) and solar PV (22%). Coal leads the investment in fossil-fuelled plants garnering 58% of the expenditure, with gas accounting for almost all of the remainder. Around 60% of the global power plant investments are in non-oecd countries, most to meet new demand while OECD countries invest in capacity primarily to replace units that retired or to decarbonise the power mix. The share of investment in competitive parts of electricity markets fell from about one-third of the global total in the early 2000s to about 10% today. With current market designs, competitive parts of markets require less than $1 trillion of cumulative investment to 2035 out of the total power sector needs of $16.4 trillion. Ownership of global installed capacity is divided equally between governments and the private sector (often large utilities). The increase of small and distributed renewables reduces the share of utilities, and will rely more on debt financing. In Europe, cumulative investment of $2.2 trillion (second only to China) is needed to replace ageing infrastructure and meet decarbonisation goals. Renewables account for 75% of the investment in new power plants to Despite excess capacity today, 100 GW of new thermal capacity are needed in the decade to 2025 to maintain the reliability of power systems. Reform of the wholesale market will be critical to make this a reality, as we estimate that wholesale prices in 2013 are $20/ MWh (or 23%) below the level that would incentivise needed investments. In India, the state owns most installed capacity and networks, but private capital will play a larger role in the $1.6 trillion of power sector investment to Despite a doubling of generation since 2000, 9% of electricity demand was unmet in 2013, hindering economic growth. With high T&D losses (27%) and low regulated end-user tariffs, utilities incurred losses of $14 billion in If T&D losses were reduced to the target level of 15%, average tariffs would need to increase by some than 5% for utilities to be financially solvent. Decarbonising the power sector to meet global climate targets requires cumulative investment of $19.3 trillion, 18% more than in the New Policies Scenario. Investment in low-carbon technologies needs to triple from $255 billion today to $730 billion in 2035, three-quarters for renewables. Well-designed policies and new financing vehicles could help lower the cost of capital, a reduction of three percentage points after 2020 would make renewables more competitive, cutting subsidies by over 20% to 2035.

4 ENERGY EFFICIENCY Current investment to improve energy efficiency over 2012 levels is estimated at $130 billion. This is equivalent to 13% of fossil fuel investment and compares to $2 billion in renewable energy sources. Energy efficiency currently lacks the attractiveness of investment in clean energy supply, such as renewables, reflecting different policy frameworks and a set of specific barriers, including small transaction sizes and verification and measurement issues. In contrast to traditional energy-supply investment, energy efficiency investments offer expectations of future cost savings rather than an asset generating a specific cash flow. Annual spending on energy efficiency quadruples to $550 billion towards 2035 with 62% being spent in the transport sector, 29% in buildings and 9% in industry. Improvements in cars dominate investments in transport; insulation and space heating account for the bulk of investment in buildings; non energy-intensive industries carry out the large part of investment in industry. The European Union, North America and China together account for two-thirds of total investment, reflecting the size of their car markets and the vehicle efficiency standards in place or planned; efforts in the European Union and in North America to improve the efficiency of electrical appliances and the buildings stock; and China s priority to upgrade the efficiency of its industry. In other emerging economies, the lack of targeted policies and access to finance, as well as the persistence in some countries of fossil-fuel subsidies, pose serious obstacles to investments in energy efficiency. Over the period to 2035, households need to make about half of total investment, businesses % and governments 11%. Mobilising the necessary financing from households is a huge task given the low priority attributed to energy efficiency by consumers and prevailing economic preoccupations in many regions. Two-thirds of households energy efficiency spending is dedicated to more efficient cars with the rest being spent on insulating houses and buying more efficient appliances. Businesses invest in improving processes in industrial facilities, refurbishing buildings and buying more efficient vehicles. Energy efficiency investments of businesses were partly reduced during the financial crisis of , with credit conditions today still not back to pre-crisis levels. Currently, about 60% of efficiency investments rely on self-financing with most of the rest financed through loans. Spending on energy efficiency accounts today only for a small part of disposable income for households and of revenue for businesses but financing mechanisms need to be in place that address the initial capital hurdle. Financing tools that use future fuel savings to cover the initial investment cost would be suitable for this purpose. As the size of efficiency loans is too small for investors, securitisation bundling different projects of smaller size can build a bridge between energy efficiency projects and capital markets. A decarbonisation of the energy sector sees energy efficiency investment increase to $1.1 trillion in 2035, double the amount seen in our main scenario. Spending per household on efficiency increases four times, while household income grows by only 50%. Cumulative investment of $14 trillion in efficiency helps to lower energy consumption by almost 15% in 2035, compared with our main scenario. Dependable policy signals are essential to ensure that these investments offer a sufficiently attractive risk-adjusted return. It is essential that a stable and favourable long-term regulatory framework is in place and that a clear price signal is set by phasing out existing price distortions and through carbon pricing. Clear and easy measurement and a standardisation of the investment process help to mobilise financing from capital markets.

5 World Average annual investments Cumula ve investments Historical New Policies Scenario NPS Energy Supply (billion, year-2012 US dollars) Total Oil Upstream Transport Re ning Gas Upstream Transport Coal Mining Transport Power Fossil fuels Of which: Coal Of which: Gas Nuclear Renewables Of which: Bioenergy Of which: Hydro Of which: Wind Of which: Solar PV Transmission Distr on Biofuels Energy E ciency (billion, year-2012 US dollars) Total Industry Energy intensive Non-energy intensive Transport Road Avia on, naviga on and rail Buildings OECD/IEA, World Energy Investment Outlook Special Report

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