HAS BRAZIL REALLY TAKEN OFF? BRAZIL LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE

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1 HAS BRAZIL REALLY TAKEN OFF? BRAZIL LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE

2 COUNTRY PROFILE: A COUNTRY IN TRANSFORMATION POLICY RECOMENDATIONS

3 COUNTRY PROFILE Brazilian Equivalent Population in The World 10 Largest Population in the World millions of people Source: The Economist and World Bank A COUNTRY WITH HUGE DIMENSIONS 3

4 COUNTRY PROFILE Brazilian Equivalent GDP in The World 10 Largest GDP in the World 0,0 2,5 5,0 7,5 10,0 12,5 15,0 17,5 20,0 17,4 10,4 4,6 3,9 2,9 2,8 2,3 2,1 2,1 1,9 US$ billion dollars Source: The Economist and World Bank A COUNTRY WITH HUGE DIMENSIONS 4

5 COUNTRY PROFILE A MOVIE BEHIND THE PICTURE Inflation Rate ECONOMICS REFORMS INEQUALITY REDUCTION Monthly rate % Source: World Bank A HISTORICAL INFLATION PROBLEM THAT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND... 5

6 COUNTRY PROFILE A MOVIE BEHIND THE PICTURE Gross Domestic Product ECONOMICS REFORMS INEQUALITY REDUCTION 200 Constant US$ dollar Source: World Bank A GROWING COUNTRY AFTER ECONOMIC REFORMS 6

7 COUNTRY PROFILE A MOVIE BEHIND THE PICTURE Gross Domestic Product Per Person ECONOMICS REFORMS INEQUALITY REDUCTION Constant US$ dollar Source: World Bank BUT AT SOME COST TO THE POPULATION... 7

8 COUNTRY PROFILE A MOVIE BEHIND THE PICTURE Gini Index 100 = very unequal and 0 = very equal People below poverty line People living with less than US$ 3,1 a day ECONOMICS REFORMS INEQUALITY REDUCTION 6 4 ECONOMICS REFORMS INEQUALITY REDUCTION 50 2 from 0 to 100 % of the population Source: World Bank A RECENT INEQUALITY REDUCTION HISTORY 8

9 COUNTRY PROFILE POLICY RECOMENDATIONS: IT S ALL ABOUT DOING BUSINESS 9

10 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS: INEQUALITY Source: The Economist A VERY UNEQUAL COUNTRY YET... 10

11 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS: INEQUALITY GDP Growth Inflation Rate Inflation target = 4,5% 10,0% 8,0% 7,5% 12,0% 10,0% 10,3% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% 2,7% 0,9% 2,3% 0,1% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 5,9% 6,5% 5,8% 5,9% 6,4% 6,6% -2,0% -2,0% -4,0% -3,2% Unemployment Rate 9,0% 8,1% 8,3% 8,0% 7,0% 6,7% 6,0% 6,0% 5,5% 5,4% 5,0% 4,8% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 2,0% 0,0% Interest Rate 16,0% 14,0% 14,3% 13,8% 12,0% 10,8% 11,0% 11,8% 10,0% 10,0% 8,0% 7,3% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% IMPOSSIBLE TO FIGHT INEQUALITY WITH THESE MACROECONOMICS FUNDAMENTALS Source: IBGE and World Bank 0,0%

12 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS: THE MOST CLOSED ECONOMY IN G20 Open Market Index How open is the country's economy to international trade Out of 6.0 4,3 4,2 4,1 4,1 3,9 3,9 3,8 3,7 3,6 3,6 3,3 3,2 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,0 2,6 2,5 2,3 Germany Canada Australia United Kingdom Saudi Arabia France South Korea United States Italy Japan South Africa Turkey Mexico Indonesia Russia China India Argentina Brazil Source: International Commerce Chamber FROM NOW ON, IT IS ALL ABOUT OPEN THE ECONOMY 12

13 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS: NOT DIFFERENT COMPARING TO THE REST OF THE WORLD Open Market Index How open is the country's economy to international trade Singapore Luxembourg Netherlands United Arab Denmark Austria New Zealand Finland Chile Poland Saudi Arabia Portugal South Korea Italy Spain Turkey Mexico Indonesia Morocco India Argentina Sri Lanka Brazil Pakistan Ethiopia Source: International Commerce Chamber FROM NOW ON, IT IS ALL ABOUT OPENING THE ECONOMY 13

14 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS: A DIFFICULT COUNTRY TO DO BUSINESS Doing business index Ease of doing business Out of 189 Dealing With Construction Permits Getting Eletricity Starting a Business Resolving Insolvency Enforcing Contracts Registering Property Trading Across Borders Getting Credit Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Source: Doing Business Report AND ALSO DOING BUSINESS... 14

15 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS: A DIFFICULT COUNTRY TO DO BUSINESS Time Required to Start a Business Days needed to complete the procedures to legally operate a business days Time to Prepare and Pay Taxes Hours per year to prepare, file, and pay three major types of taxes hours Brazil Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa World Middle East & North Africa European Union 0 Brazil Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa World Middle East & North Africa European Union Source: Doing Business Report AND ALSO DOING BUSINESS... 15

16 POLICY RECOMENTATIONS GDP Per Person ECONOMICS REFORMS INEQUALITY REDUCTION PRO-BUSINESS REFORMS Source: World Bank FROM NOW ON, IT IS ALL ABOUT OPENING THE ECONOMY AND DOING BUSINESS 16

17 HAS BRAZIL REALLY TAKEN OFF? NO SHOULD WE INVEST IN BRAZIL? IF WE DO THE PRO BUSINESS REFORMS, SO YES 17

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