2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Transcription

1 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 European Investment Bank Luxembourg, November 2, 213

2 12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2

3 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3

4 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 3: Industrial output : Food output 5 5 1: Population : Pollution level Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4

5 For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website J Randers 5

6 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 6

7 World population will peak in 24 Gpersons 1 % / yr 5. 8 Population ( scale) Birth rate (scale ) 2. 2 Death rate 1. g database with slides Graph Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 7

8 % / yr 5. World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 15 Gp World GDP (scale ) Long term trend in productivity growth ( scale) Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) g1365j Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 8

9 Global consumption will peak in 245 G$ / yr Traditional investment (24% of GDP) Non-discretionary investment ( unavoidable repair ) World GDP Consumption 3 g database with slides Graph Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 9

10 Energy use will peak in 24 Gtoe / yr 2 toe / M$ 3 G$ / yr Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) World GDP (scale ) Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 197 to 25 g database with slides Graph 6 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 1

11 Gtoe / yr 6.5 Fossil fuel use will peak around Coal use 3.9 Oil use Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 197 to 252 g database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 11

12 World CO 2 emissions will peak in 23 GtCO2 / yr 5 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy CO2 emissions ( scale) (scale ) Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 197 to 25. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 12

13 Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 252 ppm 5 deg C 2.5 m CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) Sea level rise (scale ) g database with slides Graph Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 13

14 Discussion of the 252 forecast 1. Growth in population and GDP will slow by itself because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints 2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis 3. There will be enough resources including energy, water and food to cover demand (which is not the same as need) 4. There will be more poverty both in the rich and the poor world J Randers 14

15 There will be huge regional differences 4, 35, After-tax income per person (in 25 PPP $ per person-year) World 3, BRISE 25, 2, 15, China OECD less US 1, USA 5, ROW Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 15

16 Main conclusions from the 252 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 252 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption will stagnate because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 16

17 What does this mean for the EIB? 1. Slow GDP growth in Europe for decades also in the rest of the industrialised world 2. Continuing increase in the amount of repair and adaptation work leading to reduced consumption growth J Randers 17

18 Slowing growth in total productivity - USA % / yr Rate of growth in GDP per person 15 to 65 years of age g database with slides Graph 3c Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 18

19 Fertility decline in EU to Total fertility 2. Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman 1.5 Long term trend Figure A4-1 Total Fertility EU to 21 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_12522.xls Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 19

20 OECD outside the US 197 to State of Affairs Population.8 GDP CO2 emissions.6 Consumption.4.2 Temperature rise g database with slides Graph Max values.8 Gp, 3 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 3 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US State of Affairs 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 2

21 What should the EIB do? 1. The EIB should work to increase human wellbeing in a world with constant GDP and declining population 2. The EIB should help establish repair and adaptation packages financed with newly printed money J Randers 21

22 Time to turn! J Randers 22