Energy Megatrends 2020

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1 Energy Megatrends 2020 Esa Vakkilainen 1

2 NOTE The data included in the following is mainly based on International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA is considered the most reliable source of information world wide IEA:The International Energy Agency (IEA) acts as energy policy advisor to 27 member countries. Founded during the oil crisis of , the IEA s initial role was to coordinate measures in times of oil supply emergencies. Its mandate has broadened to incorporate the Three E s of balanced energy policy making: energy security, economic development and environmental protection. In IEA's analyses there are the following scenarios: REFERENCE Scenario: energy and climate policies that exits today, will continue as is ALTERNATIVE Policy Scenario: policies and measures that are currently under discussions/consideration will be applied HIGH Growth: China & India growth continues to be high (in other scenarios this will slow a bit due to maturing of the economy Details of assumptions in scenarios can be presented if needed 2

3 World energy demand will grow 55% between 2005 and 2030 with current energy and climate policies IEA assumes oil price to remain on a nominal level of 110 USD/barrel Coal price is estimated to remain on a high level but being flat China turned to be a coal importer in 2007 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 3

4 Growth will be satisfied by coal, oil and gas Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 4

5 China will be the biggest consumer Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 5

6 The trends are based on assumption that energy intensity decreases 6 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

7 Oil 7

8 Oil consumption is driven by transport China reaching Europe by 2030 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 8

9 Oil demand is influenced by energy efficiency alternative policy scenario by IEA Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 9

10 China and India will drive oil demand Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 10

11 Oil is going to flow from Middle to Far East Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) 11

12 Oil resources are in Middle East and Russia Source: BP, 2007 The world will be dependant on Middle East 12

13 The Question: how long will there be oil available? Source: BP,

14 World s Oil Reserves Consumption When will oil production peak? Uncertainty of the world's oil reserves causes concern alternatives are on agenda However, it is generally communicated that oil will last at least next 40 years Oil producers and Governments have an interest to keep oil economy alive economy based on reasonable priced oil national wealth dependant on oil income Oil reserve data is political optimism prevails 14 Source: I/ASA Forestry Programme /Ste Nilson 2004

15 Required New Production by ExxonMobil 15

16 Oil price remaining on a high level Herald Tribune: Published: October 31, 2007 "China plus India are going to dominate growth in the oil markets," Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, said during an interview at an oil industry conference. During the past 18 months, he noted, more than two-thirds of the growth in global oil demand came from China and India alone. Demand for oil in China, he added, would eventually equal the entire supply from Saudi Arabia. Partly as a result, he added, the annual report would predict that oil prices, now at about $93 a barrel, could remain at levels much higher than thought possible in the past. This, he said, heightened the risk of a serious global economic slowdown. "At $93 a barrel, everything is possible," said José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, chief executive of the Brazilian oil company Petrobras. 16

17 Nominal oil price of 110 $/barrel is expected 17 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

18 Oil price is dependant on stability of supply 18

19 Coal 19

20 Coal will play a major role in energy mix Renewable energy (other than hydro) play bigger role in OECD than in the rest of the world 20 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

21 China will be the biggest coal user and is dependent on imported coal 21 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

22 Coal resources are sufficient for a long term 22 Source: BP, 2007

23 Coal price will remain relatively high FOB futures in Rotterdam Coal price is estimated to remain on a high level but being flat China turned to be a coal importer in

24 Gas 24

25 largest NG resources are in Middle East, Russia and Former Soviet Union 25 Source: BP, 2007

26 Natural gas resources are sufficient to meet expected demand to Source: BP, 2007

27 Gas trading via pipelines as LNG is increasing Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA (International Energy Agency) Europe's dependency on imported gas will increase dramatically Gas trading will increase; price increases due to LNG Gas price will be influenced by oil price due to competition between gas and oil products 27

28 Natural gas will become internationally traded commodity new direction? Source: BP, 2007 Resources and consumption are not in the same region 28

29 Investment needs on energy sector 29

30 Energy sector requires over 20 trillion UDS investments by 2030 European power sector needs billion investments between Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

31 Europe capacity growing old A large share of existing capacity needs to be replaced due to aging In addition there will be the demand increase that has to be fulfilled; new demand of electricity has been estimated to be equivalent of 70 new 1600 MW nuclear power plants by 31 Source: IEA, 2005

32 CO 2 capture will double the cost of producing coal fired power 32 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

33 Pressure to increase market prices in Europe Electricity prices will increase due to: need for new capacity and need to replace old and worn out capacity emission trading and promotion of renewable energy with subsidies consolidation of energy industry and requirements for high returns Other climate change policies; requirement to carbon capture and storage Europe's own gas resources will run out, dependency from Russia increases Electricity production capacity New Capacity Other Replacements Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Required Capacity 2020: GW Replacements 300 GW New GW

34 Finland is facing a rebuild programme consumption the size of the gap depends on the growth of: consumption in Finland export to neighbouring countries (Russia, Baltic, Nordic, Europe) 34 Source: VTT, 2006

35 Climate Change and its impact on policies 35

36 Climate change is a global challenge Common agreement of Climate Change process globally Policies and public opinion require actions to reduce Green House Gases (GHG) Approaches to mitigate climate change differ Asia Pacific Partnership counts on technology development Kyoto protocol seeks impact by emission capping EU has set targets for % share of renewable energy 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions 20% reduction in energy consumption Policies to combat climate change are under development globally, regionally, and locally; the EU is introducing the most "radical" requirements aiming to change 36 Source: IPCC

37 Energy related CO 2 emissions will rise REFERENCE Scenario: policies that exits today, will continue as is ALTERNATIVE Policy Scenario: policies and measures that are currently under discussions/consideration will be applied HIGH Growth: China & India growth continues to be high (in other scenarios this will slow a bit due to maturing of the economy) Alternative policies under discussion will reduce energy related CO2 emissions by about 17 % compared to today's policies Coal will be the biggest source of emissions 37 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

38 Energy related CO2 emissions will increase even in radical scenarios REFERENCE Scenario: policies that exits today, will continue as is ALTERNATIVE Policy Scenario: policies and measures that are currently under discussions/consideration will be applied HIGH Growth: China & India growth continues to be high (in other scenarios this will slow a bit due to maturing of the economy) 38 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

39 The growth in CO 2 is in China and India REFERENCE Scenario: policies that exits today, will continue as is ALTERNATIVE Policy Scenario: policies and measures that are currently under discussions/consideration will be applied HIGH Growth: China & India growth continues to be high (in other scenarios this will slow a bit due to maturing of the economy) Europe's -20% reduction will not have a major effect to total CO2 balance 39 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

40 Renewable energy is in a crucial role REFERENCE Scenario: policies that exits today, will continue as is ALTERNATIVE Policy Scenario: policies and measures that are currently under discussions/consideration will be applied HIGH Growth: China & India growth continues to be high (in other scenarios this will slow a bit due to maturing of the economy) 40 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 by IEA

41 New, regulation, policies, and other measures are needed 41 STABILITATION: stabilizing CO2 emissions at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with teh climate system If the world aims to stabilisation of emissions there shall be strong policies to increase renewables, reduce consumption (increase efficiency), invest to carbon capture and storage (CCS) of power generation) in addition to present policies This means price increases in energy

42 Summary 42

43 Global Energy Landscape will change Climate Change Total Cost/Price of Energy Current picture will change: price upwards efficiency requirements renewable energy Security of Supply 43

44 Energy Politics Energy subject of Global Power Politics (especially oil and gas but also uranium) resources in unstable areas Climate change mitigation brings about the renewable energy, however renewable in a marginal role due to availability of raw material Regionally different policies state control vs. free markets, new socialism vs. global companies nations want to secure their position concerning security of supply and price Availability a key poverty mitigation 44

45 Energy Economic/Industry Demand increases especially in non-industrialized countries Price trend upwards due to scarcity of resources, price of getting fossil fuels off the ground, needed heavy investments and due to costs of new technologies Competitive differentiation possible via access to energy and utilizations of lower costs /advanced technologies Renewable energy markets booming in all areas i.e. heat, electricity, cooking, transport but not major source of energy Competition of biomass intensifies -> availability, price "old truths" like "it does not make sense to transport bark from Uruguay to Europe" have to be rethought European energy industry will little-by-little consolidate 45

46 Energy Society/Consumers Requirements for security of supply "lights on!" "everyone wants energy" key to poverty mitigation Vulnerability to energy security will not disappear intensifies due to huge interconnected grid infrastructures End users become more involved in the discussions of the origin of energy Climate change impact does not dominate but influences to customer choices ( still more concern of price and availablity) NGO's role in decision making intensifies NIMBY not in my back yard influencing costs 46

47 Energy Technology No major breakthroughs of technologies in large scale energy generation (H 2, fusion) H 2 still needs more electricity than produces energy Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal energy costs reducing but still in marginal role Extracting transport fuels from different sources will develop strongly however oil based fuels still dominant Usage not declining sharply but some areas like transport specific usage declining (cars, trucks) CO 2 capture and storing developing as temporary measure 47

48 Energy Environment more stringent regulation on environmental impacts (emissions to air, water, and ground) increasing costs of production Climate change mitigation requirements intensify costly solution lead to cost increases Efficient use become to be a more stringent requirement NOMBY licensing energy production and distribution becomes more difficult 48

49 Megatrends Climate change mitigation is a major driver behind the interest to use more and more non-fossil energy sources Renewable energy sources like hydropower, biomass and wind are today available for electricity generation solar, tidal, and geothermal energy providing local marginal sources as well; biomass based electricity generation is the most feasible. No major technical development changing the picture is foreseen Nuclear power is gaining acceptance as a CO 2 free power production methodology Security of supply adds its part to Governments' desire to reduce the dependency -> local renewable sources will help in that Biomass will face competition: electricity and heat generation vs. liquid fuel production; wood energy usage in pulp&paper industry; chemical industry vs. energy 49

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