The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. Major Economies Forum, Paris

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1 The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate Major Economies Forum, Paris Jeremy Oppenheim, Programme Director 11 th July 2014

2 Purpose of the Global Commission Reframe the debate about economic growth and climate change Provide practical lessons to economic decision-makers in both public and private sectors Based on economic decision-maker perspective Strategic rather than comprehensive Report to be published September 16 th

3 What s new over the last 5-10 years? Climate risks understood better Step-change in the economics of renewable energy technologies now close to or at parity with fossil fuels in many countries Air pollution costs better understood and more politically salient (among other co-benefits of climate action) Coal is no longer a secure bet for energy security Technological innovation in digitisation, new materlals and life sciences offers huge potential to transform resource and energy use World has not recovered as fast as might have been expected from financial crisis due in part to policy distortions / structural rigidities which overlap with the actions needed for climate 2

4 Growth is weak across the world economy OECD countries Still recovering from financial crisis loss of fiscal flexibility Slower productivity growth Infrastructure renewal challenge Income inequality Middle Income countries Need escape from middle income trap Two speed economies with large productivity gaps Middle East Excess dependency on hydrocarbon exports Insufficient private sector employment Low-income countries Dependence on natural resource exports Remaining deep poverty, including lack of basic access to energy, water, health, food China Looking to restructure its economy and reduce energy intensity Excess financial leverage Significant pollution problems India Significant infrastructure gap New chance to catch up 3

5 Countries are also recognising the costs of uncontrolled growth Particulate matter concentrations in air for selected cities Annual mean PM10 ug/m WHO air quality standards 20 0 Nature s red-light warning against inefficient and blind development 4

6 Key drivers of growth and climate performance Cities 1 Land use 2 Energy Wider economy Resource productivity Infrastructur e investment Innovation 3 Higher quality, more resilient, inclusive growth 1 Includes urban transport 2 Includes forests 3 Includes economy-wide innovation 5

7 Atlanta and Barcelona have similar GDP per capital but very different carbon productivity ATLANTA Atlanta s built-up area BARCELONA Barcelona s built-up area Population: 5.25 million Urban area: 4,280 km 2 Carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO 2 /ha/an (public+ private transport) Population: 5.33 million Urban area: 162 km 2 Carbon emissions: 0.7 tonnes CO 2 /ha/an (public+ private transport) 6

8 Over 300 million ha of degraded land could be restored in Sub-Saharan Africa, Niger case highlights possibility Suitable land for restoration in Africa Niger case: Zinder Province 1980s Now 7

9 Energy efficiency can be the first fuel : it has contributed significantly to limiting overall energy use growth so far IEA 11 * total final energy consumption and energy services, 1974 vs Actual 2010 energy consumption was 20% higher than in 1974 but would need to be 100% higher had energy efficiency not improved (80%) (20%) Gas Energy efficiency Other Coal Electricity Oil Without constant improvements since 1974 energy consumption would need to be 65% higher 1974 energy use Actual 2010 energy use 2010 energy services + *Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States + Hypothetical 2010 energy supply required absent energy efficiency improvements since

10 Hub height (m) LCOE ($/MWh) Costs of renewable energy has fallen dramatically Example: Wind power Wind turbines have evolved to have 100 times more power generation capabilities than 30 years ago Costs of power from different sources: Germany example of learning curve Rotor diameter: 126m Rating: 7,500 kw Nuclear Gas CCGT Coal PC Onshore Wind Solar PV 17m 75 kw 30m 300 kw 100m 3,000 kw Year Note: Carbon price and social cost of carbon and health care impacts are not included 9

11 As costs fall, renewable energy is becoming mainstream Extent to which the policy goal is met Met Partially met Not met 2013 cost 2020 cost Local environment Energy security Greenhouse Gas Coal Gas 1 Nuclear Hydro Renewables 1 Is green in Russia, USA and Middle East for 2013 cost SOURCE: NCE analysis 10

12 INNOVATION Google is becoming one of the biggest clean technology companies on the planet ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES CLOUD HOSTING EXAMPLE Locally Hosted Server vs Gmail: Comparison of annual CO 2 per user, kg CO 2 per user Small business 103 Purchasing smart clean technology companies like Nest Driving energy efficiency in data centres and operations Medium business 17 Large business 4 Investing > $1 billion in renewable energy projects Developing autonomous vehicles Google 1 Note: Small business consists of 50 users, Medium-sized business consists of 500 users and large consists of 10,000+users Source: Google, Greentech Media, Google s Green Computing: Efficiency at Scale : 11

13 Some findings Self-interested action by countries, cities and companies could deliver the majority of the emissions reductions needed for 2 degrees pathwaywith net economic benefit The quantity of investment required for low- and high-carbon pathways is very similar. The mix of investment is very different Subsidies for the high-carbon economy are currently over $1 trillion per year, compared to $100 billion for low-carbon Public energy R&D is only 0.05% of global GDP; less than half the level of the late 1970s Economic benefits of strong climate action, measured in $/tonne, are likely to be greater than the economic costs Carbon pricing still the first-best, most efficient fiscal instrument to address climate change, and has useful revenue raising benefits, but must be done as part of national policy packages 12

14 The core propositions Global report contents (1) It is possible to achieve strong economic growth while reducing GHG emissions The forces needed to tackle economic underperformance are the same as those needed to reduce climate risk (2) High quality growth growth which is inclusive, resilient and which improves non-monetary outcomes such as air quality and health cannot now be sustained unless climate risk is addressed at the same time (3) Climate risk will not be addressed unless countries tackle the underlying causes of economic under-performance 13

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