Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis

Transcription

1 Research Forecast Report Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis October 2014 Rupert Wood

2 2 About this report This report presents 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in eight regions and selected countries. It analyses the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic. The forecast dataset underpinning this report covers: mobile data data delivered over mobile (cellular) networks to: handsets (typically smartphones); mid-screen devices (typically tablets); USB modems, routers and other standalone data devices; M2M devices; median usage per smartphone; and downstream and upstream Wi-Fi data data delivered over private Wi-Fi connections (at home or work) to handsets and mid-screen devices, and data delivered to all devices using public Wi-Fi connectivity. The report assesses the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity. It also analyses the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity. This report is based on Analysys Mason s: internal research and modelling consumer surveys on smartphone and tablet usage. Our forecasts are informed and sense-checked by on-the-ground regional market experts. Figure 1: Summary of report coverage [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Geographical coverage Regions modelled: Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe North America Developed Asia Pacific Emerging Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa In addition, 26 countries and the Nordic region are modelled individually Major KPIs Mobile data Total volume and average usage for: handsets mid-screen devices USB modems and routers M2M and smart wearables Traffic split by: public and private usage median usage per smartphone downstream and upstream Wi-Fi data Total volume and average usage for handsets mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only) Traffic split by public and private usage The report serves as a companion to Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis , which has similar geographical coverage.

3 3 Contents Slide no. 6. Executive summary 7. Our forecasts indicate that the CAGR of mobile data volume will be 42.5% worldwide for , and 47.1% for Growth rates in mobile data traffic in most countries fell in 2013, but there were significant exceptions 9. What we have changed since our last analysis 10. Drivers and inhibitors 11. Mobile data traffic growth is still highly constrained by supply-side considerations 12. Demand-side complications can also limit the growth of mobile data traffic 13. Mobile data traffic growth is fundamentally constrained by the high cost of fixed mobile substitution 14. The rate of mobile data traffic growth in the USA exceeded that of other developed markets 15. The slow down in the rate of growth in mobile data has been very marked in the most advanced Asia Pacific economies 16. Volumes of mobile data traffic continue to grow at a relatively slow rate in Europe 17. What do the leading markets tell us? 18. New investment in fixed networks will slow mobile traffic growth in middle-income markets 19. China and India: a comparison of mobile data usage Slide no. 20. Key forecast results 21. The number of active SIMs in personal devices will outstrip the world s population by Mobile data traffic growth will vary between regions and, in general, will be lower in developed markets 23. Smartphones will displace other devices as hubs for personal Wi-Fi 24. We forecast that growth in average mobile data usage on handsets will settle to 30% per year in developed markets 25. Tablets and other mid-screen devices will continue to be a small part of the mobile traffic mix 26. Tablets and smartphones will constitute nearly half of all fixed data traffic in developed economies by M2M and smart wearable SIMs will account for 2% of mobile data traffic by 2019, but most smart wearables will be tethered 28. By 2019, 13% of SIM-enabled devices will be 4G and these will generate 79% of mobile data traffic 29. The divergence between median and mean usage and the asymmetry of usage are both related to video consumption 30. By 2019, the volume of Wi-Fi traffic generated by handsets and tablets will be over seven times higher than mobile traffic 31. Public Wi-Fi is driven by different strategic aims, but its share of total traffic is usually quite modest

4 4 Contents Slide no. 32. Market definition 33. Data sources and methodology 34. Definition of geographical regions [1] 35. Definition of geographical regions [2] 36. About the author and Analysys Mason 37. About the author 38. About Analysys Mason 39. Research from Analysys Mason 40. Consulting from Analysys Mason

5 5 List of figures Figure 1: Summary of report coverage Figure 2: Mobile data traffic, developed and emerging markets, (2013 forecast) and (2014 forecast) Figure 3: Growth in mobile data traffic, by region, Figure 4: Growth in mobile data traffic, by country, 2011, 2012 and 2013 Figure 5: Mobile network capacity growth, Figure 6: Hours not spent working or travelling, average mobile data usage per capita, 2013 Figure 7: Mobile data traffic, USA, 2H H 2012 and 2013 Figure 8: Annual rate of growth in mobile data traffic, selected developed markets, Asia Pacific, 2H H 2014 Figure 9: Mobile data usage per capita per month, selected developed markets, Asia Pacific, 2H H 2014 Figure 10: Annual rate of growth for mobile data traffic, selected countries, Europe, 1H H 2014 Figure 11: Investment and fixed mobile convergence Figure 12: Average Internet usage and GDP per capita, by region and Romania, 2013 Figure 13: Mobile data usage per 3G/4G SIM per month, China and India, 2012 and 2013 Figure 14: Mobile and Wi-Fi metrics, China Mobile, 2012, 2013 and 1H 2014 Figure 15: Mobile connections, by type, worldwide, Figure 16: Mobile connections (excluding M2M), by device generation, worldwide, Figure 17: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by region, Figure 18: Mobile data traffic, by region, Figure 19: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by device type, Figure 20: Mobile data traffic, by device type, worldwide, Figure 21: Average mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset SIM, selected developed markets, 2013 Figure 22: Average mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset SIM by handset technology generation, developed markets, Figure 23: Mid-screen devices share of mobile data traffic, and mobile networks share of mid-screen device traffic, developed markets, Figure 24: Smartphone and mid-screen devices share of fixed data traffic, developed markets, Figure 25: Median data usage per smartphone by network type and smartphone screen size (n = 1588) Figure 26: Mobile data traffic, by M2M and smart wearable SIMs, worldwide, Figure 27: 4G devices share of mobile data traffic, by region, Figure 28: Mobile data traffic share by device and network generation, USA, 3Q 2013 Figure 29: Median 3G/4G handset usage as a proportion of mean usage, worldwide, Figure 30: Mobile data traffic share by type of network connection, worldwide, Figure 31: Wireless data traffic by device type, and proportion generated in a private location, worldwide, Figure 32: Regional breakdown used in this report [1] Figure 33: Regional breakdown used in this report [2]

6 Growth Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis Growth rates in mobile data traffic in most countries fell in 2013, but there were significant exceptions The worldwide rate of growth in mobile data remained broadly steady between 2012 (76%) and 2013 (78%). Emerging markets tended to have higher growth rates, because growth is largely driven by increasing basic Internet connectivity, although growth was highest in North America, driven by a pro-operator regulatory environment, exuberant investment by operators and consequent bold pricing. Europe recorded the lowest growth rates, and southern European markets had the lowest growth rate in the world. Figure 3: Growth in mobile data traffic, by region, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 1 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 48% 54% 70% 71% 72% 74% 95% 119% CEE WE SSA DVAP MENA LATAM EMAP NA 1 Key: CEE = Central and Eastern Europe; DVAP = Developed Asia Pacific; EMAP = Emerging Asia Pacific; LATAM = Latin America; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; NA = North America; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; WE = Western Europe. Figure 4: Growth in mobile data traffic, by country, 2011, 2012 and 2013 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Australia Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Russia Singapore South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK USA 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Growth

7 Growth multiple (2013 = 1) Traffic (EB per year) Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis Mobile data traffic growth will vary between regions and, in general, will be lower in developed markets Worldwide growth in mobile data traffic will be driven largely by emerging markets particularly EMAP, which includes China and India and has by far the largest population of our regions. Europe, MENA and DVAP have among the lower forecast mobile data traffic growth rates, but the reasons for the slower growth are different in each region. The main inhibitor of growth in Europe is the propensity to use Wi-Fi, particularly at home, because of inexpensive fixed broadband. Saturation explains the low growth in DVAP. We forecast slow growth in MENA because of saturation in the advanced countries and low investment in the least advanced. Figure 18: Mobile data traffic, by region, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Figure 17: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by region, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] WE NA DVAP CEE LATAM EMAP MENA SSA SSA MENA EMAP LATAM CEE DVAP NA WE

8 36 Executive summary Drivers and inhibitors Key forecast results Market definition About the author and Analysys Mason

9 37 About the author Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Fixed Networks research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

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