Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

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1 Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1

2 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON Links GOING Where to Invest? Turkey vs. the Giants 2

3 Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing 3

4 Source: TURKSTAT Very Strong Recovery, but Moderating Real GDP (s.a,, 2008 Q1=100) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

5 Rebalancing Contribution to Growth, % H1 11 H Domestic Demand Net Exports Source: TURKSTAT

6 Composite Leading Indicator Hovering around 100 Index Source: CBRT 6

7 Real Sector Confidence Index Remains in the optimistic zone Source: Central Bank of Turkey 7

8 Credit Growth, Supportive of Economic Growth Average 13 week moving avg., y on y % Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Source: Central Bank of Turkey. Note: Credit Growth is adjusted for exhange movements. 8

9 Employment, Supportive of Growth Additional Employment since end 2007 (Mn People, s.a.) 20 Source: TURKSTAT

10 Employment, Supportive of Growth Ireland Spain Greece Iceland Denmark Estonia Portugal Japan Slovenia Italy United States Finland France United Kingdom Slovak Republic Czech Republic Netherlands New Zealand Austria Canada Germany Korea Belgium Norway Switzerland Sweden Australia Israel Singapore Turkey Annual Average Employment Growth (%, ) Source: WEO, TURKSTAT 10

11 Unemployment at Decade Low 10 Euro Area EU Turkey Unemployment Rate, s.a. (December 2007=100) Source: Eurostat, TURKSTAT 11

12 Current Account Deficit 12

13 Current Account Deficit Month Rolling, USD bn -100 Current Account Current Account + Net FDI + Net Errors and Omissions Non Energy Current Account Source: Central Bank of Turkey Large but Narrowing

14 Source: CBRT Improving Financing 12 Month Rolling, USD bn FDI and Long Term Portfolio and Short Term Current Account Deficit 14

15 Tighter Credit Conditions Supportive of Adjustment Current Account Deficit /GDP %, 12 month cumulative Credit Stock / GDP (Right axis) Source: Central Bank of Turkey 1

16 REER still Supportive of Adjustment CPI Developing Countries Based REER (2003=100) Source: Central Bank of Turkey 16

17 Medium to Long Term Remedies New Investment Incentive Scheme Incentives to Increase Domestic Savings R&D and Innovation New & Renewable Energy Infrastructure Education 17

18 Fallout from the Euro Crisis 18

19 Channels of Impact Trade Finance Confidence 19

20 The CNN Effect: Continuous Crisis Coverage Crisis Default Collapse of Euro 20

21 Impact of Deleveraging 21

22 International Bank Claims on Turkey 30 2 Q4 11, bn $ All BIS Reporting Countries European developed countries US Source: BIS, Consolidated Immediate Borrower Basis 22

23 Origins of Large EU Bank Claims on Turkey Q4 11, bn $ UK Netherlands France Source: BIS, Consolidated Immediate Borrower Basis 23

24 What about claims of Troubled Countries? Q4 11, mn $ Spain Ireland Greece Italy Portugal Source: BIS, Consolidated Immediate Borrower Basis 24

25 Impact of Slower Growth 2

26 Exports by Destination 2002 Jan Apr 2012 Other 43.4% Europe 6.6% Other 9% Europe 41% Source: TURKSTAT 26

27 MENA: life saver? Exports to MENA (% of Total) Q1 Source: TURKSTAT 27

28 MENA: life saver? (2007=100) Source: TURKSTAT Export to EU Export to MENA

29 Turkey & MENA: Growing Links 29

30 Arab Spring Short Term Uncertainty Disruption Long Term Democracy Prosperity Stability 30

31 MENA: A Sizeable Regional Market Turkey $772 bn Morocco $102 bn Syria $183 bn Iraq $109 bn Iran $47 bn Algeria $183 bn Libya $36 bn Egypt $232 bn Saudi Arabia $60 UAE $38 bn Yemen $8 Qatar $173 bn Oman $67 MENA: $2,981 bn MENA + Turkey: $3,73 Source: IMF,

32 MENA: Trade Total Exports of MENA: $1,388 bn Of which Oil: $897 bn Total Imports of MENA: $844 bn Source: WTO,

33 MENA & Turkey: Regional Trade Turkey s Total Exports to MENA: $32 bn Turkey 3.8 % of MENA imports Turkey s Total Imports from MENA: $23 bn 1.6 % of MENA exports Regional Trade: Growing, but should be much larger! Source: TURKSTAT,

34 MENA: Investments MENA FDI Flows: Inflows: $46.1 bn Outflows: $222.1 bn Source: UNCTAD,

35 MENA & Turkey: Regional Investments Turkey Turkey FDI Flows: Inflows: $14.1 bn Outflows: $3.9 bn Investments: Growing, but could be much larger Source: CBRT,

36 MENA: Sovereign Wealth Fund Assets (2011, $ tn) UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar Other Source: SWF Institute; SWF annual reports; McKinsey Global Institute 36

37 MENA: Sovereign Wealth Fund Assets Average oil price assumptions (2011 1): High: $106/barrel Baseline: $8/barrel Low: $60/barrel Low Baseline High Source: SWF Institute; SWF annual reports; McKinsey Global Institute 37

38 Where would you put your money? 38

39 To Low Yielding Government Bonds? Yr Bond Yield (%) 2 Yr Bond Yield (%) UK US Germany Japan Source: Bloomberg

40 Money for Nothing? 40

41 Fed Balance Sheet Expansion ($ bn) 2,900 2,600 2,300 2,000 1,700 1,400 1, Source: Bloomberg

42 ECB Balance Sheet Expansion ( bn) 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,00 1, Source: Bloomberg

43 BOE Balance Sheet Expansion ( bn) Source: Bloomberg

44 BOJ Balance Sheet Expansion ( tn) Source: Bloomberg

45 What about Turkey? 4

46 CBRT is not printing money ( bn) /28/2007 2/28/2008 4/28/2008 6/28/2008 8/28/ /28/ /28/2008 2/28/2009 4/30/2009 6/30/2009 8/31/ /31/ /31/2009 2/28/2010 4/30/2010 6/30/2010 8/31/ /31/ /31/2010 2/28/2011 4/30/2011 6/30/2011 8/31/ /31/ /31/2011 2/29/2012 4/30/2012 Source: CBRT

47 Debt Overhang Debt to GDP, % OECD US Euro Area Turkey Source: OECD, IMF WEO and Treasury 47

48 Source: Treasury Turkey: Low Debt * 2013* 2014* Satisfying Maastricht Criteria since Debt to GDP, %

49 Turkey: Strong Households 120 Household Liabilities, % of GDP England US Euro Area Turkey Source: CBRT, ECB, Bloomberg 49

50 Turkey: Healthy Banks Target Rate 12% Legal Rate 8% Capital Adequacy Ratio, % Source: BRSA 0

51 Market is pricing in Higher Rating for Turkey Only 4 bps higher than France! 1 Comparative CDS Levels ( years, bps)* Portugal (WD) Ireland (BBB+) Spain (BBB) Hungary (BB+) Italy (A ) Crotia (BBB ) Romania (BBB ) Slovenia (A) Bulgaria (BBB ) Latvia (BBB ) Lithuania (BBB) Belgium (AA) Slovakia (A+) Turkey (BB+) Poland (A ) France (AAA) Malta (A+) Austria (AAA) Czech Rep. (A+) Denmark (AAA) Netherlands (AAA) Estonia (A+) Germany (AAA) Finland (AAA) UK (AAA) Sweden (AAA) Source: Bloomberg (*) As of June 18, 2012

52 Why Invest in Turkey? 2

53 2011 GDP, $ 772 bn 2002 GDP, $ 230 bn Source: TURKSTAT 3

54 A Faster Growing Economy 6 Average Growth Rate ( %) Japan EU (27) USA Turkey Source: IMF, TURKSTAT, Ministry of Development 4

55 Greece $303 Bn Bulgaria $3 bn Turkey $772 Bn Georgia $14 Bn Armenia $10 Bn Iran $482 Bn Algeria $183 Bn Tunisia $46 Bn Syria $64 Bn Iraq $11 Bn Libya $36 Bn Egypt $232 Bn

56 Putting Our House in Order Combatting corruption Creating a level playing field Improving international competitiveness 6

57 Combatting Corruption Corruption Perceptions Index 2002 (among 102 countries) ITALY GREECE BRAZIL MEXICO CHINA TURKEY ARGENTINA IDNIA RUSSIA INDONESIA Source: Transperancy Intenational 7

58 Combatting Corruption Corruption Perceptions Index TURKEY CROATIA SLOVAKIA ITALY BRAZIL CHINA ROMANIA GREECE INDIA ARGENTINA INDONESIA MEXICO RUSSIA UKRAINE 2011 (among 183 countries) Source: Transperancy Intenational

59 Improving International Competitiveness Global Competitiveness Index Within the period of , Turkey has ranked 200 higher than Russia, Argentina and Greece. (among 12 countries) ITALY INDIA GREECE CHINA RUSSIA ARGENTINA BRASIL MEXICO INDONESIA TURKEY Source: World Economic Forum 9

60 Improving International Competitiveness Global Competitiveness Index 2012 Within the period of , Turkey has ranked higher than Russia, Argentina and Greece. (among 142 countries) CHINA ITALY INDONESIA Source: World Economic Forum BRASIL INDIA MEXICO TURKEY RUSSIA SLOVAK REPUBLIC CROTIA ROMANIA UKRAINE ARGENTINA GREECE 60

61 Creating A Level Playing Field Ease of Doing Business 2006 (among 1 countries) ITALY MEXICO ARGENTINA RUSSIA GREECE CHINA TURKEY INDONESIA INDIA BRAZIL Source: World Bank 61

62 MEXICO TURKEY ROMANIA CROATIA ITALY CHINA GREECE ARGENTINA RUSSIA BRASIL INDONESIA INDIA UKRAINE 3 Source: World Bank 71 Creating A Level Playing Field Ease of Doing Business 2012 (among 183 countries)

63 Strong Long Term Prospects 63

64 Towards (projections) Population: 100 mn National Income: $.2 tn 2011 Population: 7 mn National income: $772 bn 64

65 Ambitious Targets USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan. Germany 6. Russia 7. Brazil 8. UK 9. France 10. Italy 11. Mexico 12. South Korea 13. Spain 14. Canada 1. Indonesia 16. Turkey 17. Iran 18. Australia 19. Taiwan 20. Poland 200 Turkey Italy Spain Canada South Korea Source: IMF, PricewaterhouseCoopers 6

66 REER Appreciation Linear Trend Source: Central Bank of Turkey

67 Source: Treasury We are Making Progress Number of Companies with International Capital (Cumulative, in Thousands) Mar 67

68 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Billion dollar Source: Central Bank of Turkey 68

69 Invest in Turkey Invest in Future, Invest in Turkey 69

70 THANK YOU 70

41 T Korea, Rep. 52.3. 42 T Netherlands 51.4. 43 T Japan 51.1. 44 E Bulgaria 51.1. 45 T Argentina 50.8. 46 T Czech Republic 50.4. 47 T Greece 50.

41 T Korea, Rep. 52.3. 42 T Netherlands 51.4. 43 T Japan 51.1. 44 E Bulgaria 51.1. 45 T Argentina 50.8. 46 T Czech Republic 50.4. 47 T Greece 50. Overall Results Climate Change Performance Index 2012 Table 1 Rank Country Score** Partial Score Tendency Trend Level Policy 1* Rank Country Score** Partial Score Tendency Trend Level Policy 21 - Egypt***

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