Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens

Transcription

1 Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Chris Siniakov Managing Director, Fixed Income

2 International Bond Yields 4.00% 2-Year Government Yields as at 15 January % 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% Source: Bloomberg, UBS, Franklin Templeton Investments 1

3 International Bond Yields Emerging Markets 15.00% 2-Year Emerging Market Yields as at 21 April % 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% 0.00% -3.00% Source: Bloomberg, UBS, Franklin Templeton Investments 2

4 Central Bank Interest Rates: Advanced & Developing Economies 3 Main Central Bank Policy Rate 12/29/2000 to 01/08/ We expect rates to rise in Main Central Bank Policy Rate 12/29/2000 to 01/08/ We expect policy to remain accommodative '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 United Kingdom United States 0.0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 China (Right) Eurozone (Left) Japan (Left) Source: FactSet, Bank of England, Federal Reserve System. 2 Source: FactSet, Eurostat, Bank of Japan, People Bank of China. 3

5 Consumer Prices Globally CPI, All Items, YoY%¹ 12/29/1995 to 12/31/ CPI, All Items, YoY%² 12/29/1995 to 12/31/ '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Euro Area China United States '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Japan United Kingdom World 1 Source: FactSet, U.S. Department of Labor, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Eurostat.. 2 Source: FactSet, International Monetary Fund, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications, UK Office for National Statistics. 4

6 US$ Trillions No Apparent Shortage of Global Liquidity Central Bank Assets January 1, 2008 September 30, 2014 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ e Total BOJ Fed Sources: Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, as of September 30, Shaded area indicates projections starting October Federal Reserve projections assume Quantitative Easing program is reduced by $10 billion at each subsequent meeting. Bank of Japan projections assume that the balance sheet is increased to $2.9 trillion by the end of 2014 in equal increments each month. There is no assurance that any projection, estimate or forecast will be realized. 5

7 General Government Gross Debt / GDP General Government Gross Debt / GDP From 1998 to Japan % Italy % US % France 93.88% UK 90.10% Canada 89.12% Germany 78.06% Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States Source: FactSet, International Monetary Fund. 6

8 Real Effective Exchange Rate: Developed Countries Developed Market: JP Morgan Trade Weighted Broad Real Effective Exchange Rate 01/1994=100 Jan-94 to Sep-14 (Monthly) United States Eurozone Japan United Kingdom Canada Australia Source: FactSet, JP Morgan. 7

9 Value of Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Currency Trends Have Historically Lasted Several Years U.S. Nominal Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index From Jan-73 to Dec-14 (Monthly) Years 6 Years 10 Years 7 Years 10 Years Index Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve System. 8

10 GDP of Major Economies 2014 Nominal GDP ($USD) 20,000 Nominal GDP ($USD, Billions) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 United States China Japan 4770 Two of the big engines of global growth the United States and China are tracking well Germany 3820 France 2902 United Kingdom 2848 Brazil 2244 Italy 2129 Russia 2057 India 2048 Canada 1794 Australia Source: FactSet, International Monetary Fund. See for additional data provider information. 9

11 Y/Y % Change China is Now a Significant Driver of Global GDP Growth and Appeared to be Relatively Unscathed During the Great Recession 2000 to % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% China Rest of the World Source: FactSet, International Monetary Fund,

12 % of Total China Appears to Be Just Midway Through Urbanization Rural Population: % 80% 60% % 20% 0% US (lower scale) China (upper scale) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CEIC, HSBC, as of December Upper scale refers to the Chinese time period ( ). The US time period is at the bottom axis ( ). This chart is designed to show that China is midway through its urbanization path compared to the U.S. 11

13 London Paris Seoul Tokyo Shanghai Guangzh ou Shenzhen Beijing Nanjing Dalian Meters/Square Meters China Still Needs Infrastructure Investment Railway Density As of December 30, Sources: OECD, HSBC, as of December

14 Still ample room for increased investment in infrastructure Chengdu Subway Tokyo Subway Sources: HSBC, as of December 2013 Charts are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 13

15 Australia Terms of Trade 140 Australia Terms of Trade Australia Terms of Trade Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 14

16 Australia GDP Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 15

17 Size of UBS Australia Composite Bond Index Australian Bond Market has Experienced Substantial Growth Growth of the Australian Domestic Bond Market As at 31 December 2014 ($ billion) Source: UBS Australia, Franklin Templeton Investments 16

18 Dramatic Shift in Market Composition Securities Outstanding Market Value % in the UBS Australia Non-Govt. Bond Index As at Financial Year End 100% 36% 42.3% 61.5% 68.6% 50% 64% 57.7% 38.5% 31.0% Australia International Source: UBS Australia, Franklin Templeton Investments % 17

19 Australian Bond Market Changing Landscape The spread of countries represented in the Australian debt market is broad and includes Developed & Emerging nations Source: UBS Australia, Franklin Templeton Investments. As at 30 June

20 Yield % Local Investment Returns Driven by International Markets Australian and US 10-Year Government Bond Yields June 1979 December Has the structural decline in global bond yields run its course? Australia 10yr bond US Source: Bloomberg, Franklin Templeton Investments 19

21 Credit spread (in basis points) Strong Relationship Between Australian and Global Credit Markets Global Investment Grade Credit Spreads As at 31 December Australia itraxx US CDX Europe itraxx Source: Bloomberg, Franklin Templeton Investments 20

22 Rolling 12 month index returns How Much Risk Is Your Portfolio Really Taking? Rolling 12 month returns highlight strong correlation between credit and equity markets June 1984 December % 30% 0% -30% -60% 29/06/ /06/ /06/ /06/2014 S&P Index Barclays US High Yield Index Source: Bloomberg, Franklin Templeton Investments 21

23 Barclays US High Yield Credit Spread % Traditional Approaches May Lead To Unintended Consequences Credit Spreads Returning Towards pre-gfc Levels February 1994 to December Source: Barclays, Franklin Templeton Investments 22

24 Traditional Benchmarks Return Free Risk? Australia Composite Bond Index - breaking all the wrong records Price Sensitivity to rising interest rates is at record highs Yields at record lows Source: Bloomberg. As of 24 October

25 Australia 10 Year Bond Yield % Very Little Cushion Against Rising Yields Australian Bond Yield Sensitivity September 1979 December bp 150bp 275bp 6 400bp 0 s Source: Bloomberg, Franklin Templeton Investments 225bp s 180bp s 115bp 24

26 Conclusions Global macro environment for 2015 is somewhat encouraging with reasonable growth in the world s two largest economies USA & China and a cyclical upswing in Europe Global forces have compressed yields and return prospects to near record lows Traditional bonds offer little prospects for continued attractive returns and considerable risks if interest rates increase 25

27 Biographies CHRIS SINIAKOV Managing Director, Fixed income Chris Siniakov is Managing Director, Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton Investments. He has over 20 years experience in domestic and global fixed income funds management and has worked closely with large institutional clients with distinct preferences in the design and management of their fixed income portfolios. Prior to joining Franklin Templeton, Mr. Siniakov was Head of Fixed Income Asia Pacific at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management where he had responsibility for $7 billion in Fixed Income client portfolios. He has also held various portfolio management roles at Invesco and County Investment Management. Mr. Siniakov holds a BSc (Hons) in Mathematics & Statistics from Monash University and a Graduate Diploma in Banking and Finance from the Financial Services Institute of Australia. 26

28 Important Information Franklin Templeton Investments Australia Limited (ABN ) (Australian Financial Services Licence Holder No ) issues this publication for the benefit of the category of person described below for information purposes only and not investment or financial product advice. It is not addressed to any other person and may not be used by them for any purpose whatsoever. It expresses no views as to the suitability of the services or other matters described herein to the individual circumstances, objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. A disclosure document for any Franklin Templeton funds referred to in this document is available from Franklin Templeton at Level 19, 101 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 or or by calling The disclosure document should be considered before making an investment decision. This document has been prepared for circulation to persons who are wholesale investors within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) or to whom this document may otherwise lawfully be communicated to give preliminary information about the investment propositions described herein. It is confidential communication to, and solely for the use of, and may only be acted on by, such persons. This publication is for wholesale/institutional investors, institutional investment consultants, and eligible counterparties only. It is not directed at private individuals and in no way does it constitute investment advice. Any research and analysis contained in this presentation has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Any views expressed are the views of the fund manager and do not constitute investment advice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change. Franklin Templeton accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from the use of this commentary or any information, opinion or estimate herein. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Copyright Franklin Templeton Investments. You may only reproduce, circulate and use this document (or any part of it) with the consent of Franklin Templeton Investments. 27