Dezentrale versus zentrale Energieversorgung 2050 (centralized versus decentralized energy supply 2050)

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1 VDE: life needs power, Hannover Mittwoch, 15. April 2015, 10:00 11:30 h Dezentrale versus zentrale Energieversorgung 2050 (centralized versus decentralized energy supply 2050) Günther Brauner

2 The Energy Turnaround in Europe Primary moving forces: Climate change and emission limitation Growing dependency on oil and gas imports in EU Shut down of nuclear power plants (in Germany) Secondary moving forces: Development of new industries and employment Energy security and long term limitation of energy costs 2

of nuclear power plants (in Germany) Secondary moving forces: Development of

3 The Energy Turnaround in Europe EU short term strategy: EU-Directive: until 2020 and National Renewable Energy Action Plan until 2020: NREAP EU long term strategy until 2050: predominantly use of renewable energy. Different strategies in EU: coal dominated, nuclear dominated, renewable dominated. Strategy of Energy turnaround in EU: Substitution of fossil fuels by renewable electricity Efficiency improvement by electrification 3

EU long term strategy until 2050: predominantly use of renewable energy.

4 EU Energy Strategy green house gases (basis 1990) Renewable energy (end-use) energy efficiency / % -30%? 20 % 30 % % -20 % - 30%? 4

5 fossil energy end-use fossil demand Efficiency by electrification renewable electricity end-use ren. electricity demand Efficiency factor Gasoline car 45 kwh/100 km Electrical car 15 kwh/100 km 3 Oil heating 0,8 kwh/kwh oil Heat pump 4 kwh/kwh ele. 5 European Energy Efficiency Directive: efficiency improvement in electrical end use only partial achievable substitution effects fossil against electrical not in the scope of the law rigid targets for reduction of electrical demand will hinder substitution effects and thus energy turnaround 5

6 European Energy Strategy until 2020 SEC (2008)85/3 and National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) (selected EU member states only) Member State Renewables share on end-use GHG reduction Renewable electricity (NREAP) AT 23,3 % 34 % - 16 % 70,6 % DE 5,8 % 18 % - 14 % 40 % FR 10,3 % 23 % - 14 % 27 % IT 5,2 % 17 % - 13 % 24 % SP 8,7 % 20 % - 10 % 26,4 % EU-27 mean values 8,5 % 20 % - 20 % 34 % 6

electricity (NREAP) 2005 2020 2020 2020 AT 23,3 % 34 % - 16 % 70,6 % DE 5,8 % 18 % - 14 % 40 % FR 10,3 %

7 National Renewable Energy Action Plan 2020 NREAP EU-27: RES portion on electricity generation 80 Portion Anteil of RES der on EE electricity an der Elektrizität generation in in % EU-27 AT DE FR IT ES

RES der on EE electricity an der Elektrizität generation

8 Portion of fluctuating RES in % 120% Solar & Wind / Spitzenlast Solar and Wind Power / peak load 100% 80% 60% 40% wind offshore wind onshore CSP PV 20% 0% EU-27 AT DE FR IT ES 8

9 State of nuclear power in Germany Shutdown of Nuclear Power until 2022 in Germany in Operation 2014: 7 Pressurized Water Reactors 2 Boiling Water Reactors 26 out of operation in 2014 Year PWR BWR 2010 MW MW (2011) last Reactor in Total in

of operation in 2014 Year PWR BWR 2010 MW 12.873 MW 6.457 2015-4.652 (2011) - 3.

10 Installed RES for same annual electricity generation Installed installierte power Leistung for equivalent für gleiche annual Jahresenergie generation Installierte Leistung für gleiche Jahresenergie 1,00 1,23 1,78 2,29 4,00 nuclear gas & coal hydro wind offshore wind onshore PV (Reference) 8,00 grid capacity n-1 10

1 0 Installierte Leistung für gleiche Jahresenergie 1,00 1,23 1,78 2,29 4,00

11 Jahresdauerlinie der Photovoltaik PV-Forschungszentrum Zwentendorf -3% -4% energy loss by cutting at >70% loss -2% Tracker: 1300 full load hours (1.300 kwh/kw) Field: full load hours (1.050 kwh/kw) SE-Facade: 670 full load hours (670 kwh/kw) Source: Groiß: PV research center Zwentendorf. EVN/TU Wien,

300 kwh/kw) Field: 1.050 full load hours (1.

12 Duration of annual usage above 70% of installed generating power [parameter: full load hours (h/a)] time of usage in h/a Einsatzdauer in h/a Nutzungsdauer über 70% der installierten Leistung in h/a nuclear gas & coal hydro wind wind PV Mix offshore onshore in AT

000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 8.000 Nutzungsdauer über 70% der installierten Leistung in h/a 3.

13 Grid Risk for Energy Turnaround Substitution of thermal power capacities results in high renewable power to be installed Grid capacities must be extended Usage time of installed additional grid capacities especially for PV very short and so uneconomic For PV decentralized energy systems necessary: energy should be used where it is generated Grid extension has low acceptance: Germany grid development plan 2009 planned transmission line length: 1807 km could be realized until 2014: 255 km 13

uneconomic For PV decentralized energy systems necessary: energy should be used where it is generated Grid extension has

14 The Energy tournaround in Austria until 2050 NREAP AT 2020, Klima- und Energiefonds research project 2012: Super- for Microgrid 2050 (S4MG) Generating mode 2012 TWh/a 2020 TWh/a 2050 TWh/a hydropower 40, (Pumped) storage 2,73 2,73 10 thermal power station 19,82 ancillary services ancillary services wind energy 2,03 6,0 8 Photovoltaic 0,10 1,3 31 Biomasse 4,75 6,00 7 Total generation 69, Total demand 69,

(Pumped) storage 2,73 2,73 10 thermal power station 19,82 ancillary services ancillary services wind energy

15 Storage power-duration line in 2010 in AT S4MG 2011 Total power Pumped hydro storage turbine power in MW Pumped hydro power pump power im MW Power in MW ~0,14TWh ~7 TWh Time in hrs Jahresbeitrag der Speicher: 13 TWh ~ 20% von 65 TWh/a Möglicher Jahresbeitrag der Pumpspeicher ~ 100 x 0,14 TWh =14 TWh~ 22% Pumpspeicherbedarf hängt vom Zeitverlauf von Dargebot und Bedarf ab! 15

Jahresbeitrag der Speicher: 13 TWh ~ 20% von 65 TWh/a Möglicher Jahresbeitrag der Pumpspeicher

16 Difference annual generation to load in 2050 in Austria S4MG GWh/a = 7% of annual generation Long term storage need in 2050 for full renewable supply: 100 fold of today! Power in GW all hydro storages Pumped storage hours per year 16

594 GWh/a = 7% of annual generation Long term storage need

17 Pumped hydro storage development ineu until ,00 35,00 Pumpspeicher-Leistung in % EE Pumped hydro power in % of RES EU-27 34,8 30,00 Pumped hydro power in GW Pumpspeicher-Leistung in GW 27,3 25,00 23,4 20,00 18,7 15,00 10,00 10,7 9,3 7,6 7,3 5,00 0, Related to RES in NREAP 17

30,00 Pumped hydro power in GW Pumpspeicher-Leistung in GW 27,3 25,00 23,4

18 Renewable energy scenoarios Germany % Eigenerzeugung aus EE, 20% Import aus EU (Spitzenlast 80 GW, Jahreselektrizität 600 TWh/a) Generation technology power GW Fraunhofer-IWES Geschäftsm. E.W. energy TWh/a power GW energy TWh/a 2050 BMU 2012 long term scenario C power GW energy TWh/a power GW 2050 VDE 2050 energy TWh Hydropower 4,33 19,6 5,2 24 5,3 25 5,3 25 Wind onshore 18,4 27, , Wind offshore s. onshore s.onshore Photovoltaic 1,98 1, , Biomasse 3,12 14, , other , total 27,85 62,1 454, VDE ETG-V1 zentral-dezentral Brauner 18

19 2009 high portion of base load Operation of thermal power plants 2009 and 2020 (Simulation) (example week in January and July for the years 2009 & 2020) 2020 Base load is replaced by flexible thermal power stations Surplus renewable energy which cannot be usted 19

the years 2009 & 2020) 2020 Base load is replaced by flexible

20 Generating costs of ancillary services 2000 full load hours (Pumped storage: 2000 h each Pump und Turbine operation) Generating /kwh costs (Vollkosten) in /kwh combined pumped coal cycle hydro fired power plant storage power plant CCPP PHS SPP D-AES A-AES RED H2 & FC type of power plant Anlagentyp until 2020 no significant potential CCPP combined cycle PP PHS pumped hydro storage SPP steam power plant D-AES diabatic air energy storage A-AES adiabatic air energy storage RED redox battery H2&FC hydrogen & fuel cell 20

SPP D-AES A-AES RED H2 & FC type of power plant Anlagentyp until 2020 no significant potential CCPP combined cycle PP PHS pumped hydro

21 Energy security by decentralized system Energy active building with electrical mobility (SMA/smart) grid TU Wien G2C C2G electrical car CESBP 2013 Brauner homebattery 21

22 Solar Carport: 15 m² for km/a source: Peter Solar 22

23 Ideal Scenario of energy tournaround : 70% fossil: heating, car, 30% electrical: household 2050: 0% fossil, 100 % electrical: car, heat pump, household Energy demand for Househould and Mobility fossil electric Reduction of Energy demand to 30%! 23

24 Electricity demand until 2050: 150 % Energy strategy: fossil energy is substituted by renewable electricity Electricity demand for household and mobility %

25 Questions Energy turnaround and its consequences on centralized systems Advantages of decentralized vs. centralized energy systems? Energy supply of industry with renewable sources? Role of wind and photovoltaic in the future? Do we still need thermal power plants? Future role of storage capacities: long range and short range? 25

26 Participants in discussion forum Dr. Stefan Bofinger, Fraunhofer-IWES: renewable energy Dr. Cristian Czauderna, Currenta GmbH: industrial energy supply Dr. Marti Kleimaier, VDE/ETG: storage capacities Dr. Ireneusz Pyc, Siemens: energy systems of the future Dipl.-Ing. Steffen Schüler, Vattenfall Europe: Utility and power grid Moderator: Prof. Dr. Günther Brauner, Vienna University of Technology 26

27 Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. Günther Brauner Vienna University of Technology Institute for Energy Systems and Electrical Drives Gusshausstrasse 25/370-1, A-1040 Wien Tel.: , Fax: guenther.brauner@tuwien.ac.at 27

The Energy Turnaround in Europe and its Consequences for Renewable Generation, Energy Infrastructure and end-use

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