1 The Future of Energy Prof. Wesley Henderson Dept. Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering NC State University Seminar 2
2 Outline of Lectures Seminar 1: Energy & Electricity Use in the U.S. Peak Oil? Clean Coal The Distant Future? Fuel Cells & the Hydrogen Economy Seminar 2: The Likely Near Future Energy & Buildings Efficiency Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) Nuclear Wind & Water Energy Solar Energy Geothermal Biofuels
3 Energy & Electricity Use in the U.S.
4 U.S. Energy Consumption and the Role of Renewable Energy Source: Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Table 1
5 U.S. Electricity Net Generation Net generation for 2006 = 3814 TWhr UCb Source: Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2007, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
6 Energy Flow Chart Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory website
7 Global Warming - The Mounting Evidence
8 The Environment Should Be Driving Change... All melt records were exceeded in 2005
9 ...But... The melting of Greenland ice will cover Florida, New Jersey, New York City...
10 ...in Reality... Declining Energy R&D Investments...
11 ...Change is Determined by Oil Prices Declining Energy R&D Investments...Reflect World Oil Prices
12 The Price of Oil...
13 Setting the Bar High: Gigawatt-Scale Renewables Requires investment in new infrastructure: Overall in U.S. = $2 trillion Worldwide = $22 trillion
14 Global New Investment in Clean Energy
15 Global Renewable Electricity Capacity
16 Speed and Scale of Renewable Growth in U.S.
17 New Investments in 2007 and Average Growth for
18 Energy Solutions Are Enormously Challenging Must address all three imperatives!
19 Vision for a Sustainable Community
20 A Sustainable Community: An Integrated Approach
21 Energy & Buildings
22 Buildings Matter Building construction/renovation contributed 9.5% to U.S. GDP and employs approximately 8 million people. Building utility bills totaled $370 billion in 2005.
23 Buildings Status of U.S. Buildings: 40% of primary energy 72% of electricity 38% of carbon emissions DOE Goal: Cost effective, marketable zero energy buildings by 2025 Value of energy savings exceeds cost of energy features on a cash flow basis
24 Net-Zero Energy Homes That Are Cash
25 Energy Efficiency: Low or No-Cost CO 2 Reduction Options
26 Greensburg, Kansas: Rebuilding a Green City Midwestern farming community: 95% of buildings destroyed
27 Base Design for Greensburg 2000 ft 2, 16% window to floor area ratio
28 30% Savings Target
29 Greensburg 30% Efficiency Package
30 Estimated Annual Energy Savings: 30% Target
32 Estimated Annual Energy Savings: 50% Target
33 Neutral Cost Point: Greensburg
34 Greensburg Neutral Cost Package
35 Estimated Annual Energy Savings: Neutral Cost Target
36 Net Zero Energy Target: Greensburg
37 Estimated Annual Costs: Net Zero Energy Target
38 Estimated Annual Energy Savings: Net Zero Energy Target
39 Summary of First Costs for Energy Upgrades
40 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)
41 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) Status of PHEVs: PHEV conversion kits available (primarily for Prius) OEMs building prototypes (i.e., GM Chevrolet Volt) Key Challenges: Energy Storage life, cost & safety Utility impacts Vehicle cost Recharging locations
42 Challenges for PHEVs Improving batteries Cost Calendar and Cycle Life Safety of Li-Ion Cold Temperature Performance Volume and Packaging Reducing power electronics cost and volume Developing efficient chargers (smart charging) Standarizing plugs for charging (smart charging) Avoiding negative peak time charging impacts (smart charging) Definitions: PHEV20: batteries capable of 20 miles of all-electric equivalent driving range PHEV40: batteries capable of 40 miles of all-electric equivalent driving range
43 PHEV Benefits Tied to Usage Pattern
44 Oil Use Reduction With Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)
45 Oil Use Reduction With Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)
46 PHEV Prototypes
47 PHEV Batteries
48 Battery Characteristics Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) batteries are currently used in the Toyota Prius
49 Qualitative Comparison of Large-Format Battery Technologies
50 NiMH Batteries Are Forecast to Dominate HEV Market for a While
51 Li-Ion Batteries: Diverse Chemistries & Opportunities
52 PHEVs Reduce Fuel Consumption by 50% Real-world driving cycles:
53 Fuel Economy and All-Electric Range Comparison
54 Technical Challenges: Battery Cost
55 PHEVs - The Future of Vehicles? PHEVs can significantly reduce oil consumption below that of HEVs PHEVs use electricity from the electrical grid to reduce petroleum consumption Batteries are available that can meet the energy and power demands for PHEVs, but battery cost and limited cycle/calendar life remain major barriers for commercializing PHEVs There is a broad spectrum of HEV-PHEV designs leading to widely varying battery requirements PHEVs offer greater flexibility than EVs (all-electric) since it is possible to never plug them in (in which case they operate as a conventional HEV running on a liquid fuel) PHEVs are the most cost-effective choice in a scenario of projected (low) battery costs and high fuel costs
56 Nuclear Energy
57 Nuclear Energy Status of Nuclear Energy in U.S.: 20% of Nation's electricity 70% of clean, non-carbon electricity more than 100 nuclear plants currently operating in U.S. advanced light-water reactors Yucca Mountain Repository
58 Operating Nuclear Power Reactors - US (2003)
59 Operating Nuclear Power Reactors - World (2005)
60 Support For Nuclear Power in US Increasing
61 New Nuclear Power Plants in US?
62 New Nuclear Power Plants in US? (cont)
63 Wind & Water Energy
64 Wind Energy Status of Wind in U.S.: 16,850 MW installed at end of 2007 Cost 6-9 /kwh (at good wind sites) DOE Goal: 3.6 /kwh, onshore at low wind sites by /kwh, offshore in shallow water by 2014 Long Term Potential: 20% of U.S. electricity supply
65 Evolution of U.S. Commercial Wind Energy
66 Wind Power: Bigger Than Ever Before
67 Wind Resources
68 Installed Wind Capacity
69 Transmission Lines
70 Wind Power Prices Were Up in 2006
71 Price Cost Increases Are a Function of Turbine Prices
72 Marine Energy Companies developing marine energy increased from 35 to 81 from 2003 to 2006 Wave and tidal devices dominated Most companies are small and under capitalized Most are at the conceptual or scale model testing phase Few are in long term, full-scale ocean testing phase No companies are in commercial production Federal funding: FY 2008 at $10M
73 Marine Energy Technical Challenges Resource is dispersed regionally among a few states and has not yet been fully quantified Regulatory barriers are impeding technology development projects face old hydro permitting schemes Technology is not proven; there is no basis for evaluating different concepts Environmental sensitivities & competing use impacts need to be quantified
74 Where Things Stand...
75 Solar Energy
76 Solar Photovoltaics (PVs) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Status of PVs in U.S.: 824 MW installed capacity Cost /kwh Potential: /kwh by /kwh by 2015 Status of CSP in U.S.: 419 MW installed capacity Cost 12 /kwh Potential: 8.5 /kwh by /kwh by 2015
77 Global Solar Resource
78 Applications of Solar Heat and Electricitiy
79 PVs Making Some Headway
80 8.22 MW of Solar Power
81 Worldwide PV Shipments
82 Solar Cell Efficiencies
83 Solar Cell Efficiencies (cont)
84 Solar Energy Research
85 Solar Now...
86 U.S. Potential for Solar Germany: Currently has 57% of world PVs U.S.: Currently has 7% of world PVs
87 Challenges for Realizing Solar Electricity
88 DOE Solar America Initiative
89 Where Things Stand...
90 Geothermal Energy
91 Geothermal Energy Status of PVs in U.S.: 2800 MWe installed, 500 MWe new contracts, 3000 MWe under development Cost 5-8 /kwh with no PTC Capacity factor typically >90%, base load power DOE Cost Goals: <5 /kwh (for typical hydrothermal sites) 5 /kwh (for enhanced geothermal systems with mature technology) Potential: Recent MIT analysis shows potential for 100,000 MW installed Enhanced Geothermal Power systems by 2050, cost-competitive with coal-powered generation
93 Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) Challenges Site selection exploration techniques for EGS (paradigm shift from hydrothermal) Creating EGSs in a variety of geologic environments Create a subsurface fracture system to enable extraction of heat Sufficient flow rates (80 kg/s) Heat exchange volume (recoverable energy) and surface area (recovery rate) Minimal loss of injected fluid Few EGS field experiments yet conducted worldwide Experimental evidence of EGS well productivity, heat exchange volume and longevity is lacking MIT Report: "With a reasonable investment in R&D, EGS could provide 100 GW or more of cost-competitive generating capacity in the next 50 years."
94 Where Things Stand...
96 Biofuels Status of Biofuels in U.S.: Biodiesel 176 commercial plants 2.6 bgy capacity (2008) 0.46 bg produced (2007) Corn Ethanol 178 commercial plants 11.6 bgy capacity (+ 2.2 bgy planned) (2008) 6.5 bg produced (2007) Cellulosic Ethanol (2008+) 13 demo plants DOE-funded ~0.25 bgy capacity projected
97 Biofuels in the U.S.
98 Renewable Fuel Standard
99 Building the Supply Chain...
100 Biomass Feedstock Supply: Renewable Waste Resources
101 Biomass Feedstock Transportation: Distribution Infrastructure
102 Ethanol Distribution Infrastructure Hurdles
103 Biomass Conversion Technology: Biochemical Barriers
104 Cellulosic Ethanol Cost Goals
105 Ethanol Cost Reductions
106 U.S. Ethanol Biorefineries
107 Biomass Conversion Technology: Thermochemical Barriers
108 Markets: Fuels & Vehicles in U.S.
109 Generation 1 (Corn Ethanol & Biodiesel)
110 Generation 1.5 (Additional Crops)
111 Generation 2 (Cellulosic Ethanol)
112 Follow-On Generations...
113 Wide Range of Biofuel Technologies
114 Generation 3 (New Feedstocks & Fuels)
115 Generation 4 (Systems Biology Advances)
116 Where Things Stand...
117 Moving Forward...
118 Renewable Portfolio Standards
119 Reducing CO 2 Emissions
120 Reducing CO 2 Emissions: Energy Efficiency
121 Reducing CO 2 Emissions: Wind Energy
122 Reducing CO 2 Emissions: Photovoltaics (PV)
123 Reducing CO 2 Emissions: Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
124 Reducing CO 2 Emissions: Biomass Energy
125 Reducing CO 2 Emissions: Geothermal Energy
126 Potential U.S. Carbon Reductions
127 References 20% Wind Energy by Greensburg, Kansas: Rebuilding Green in Mid-America - A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets - Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Energy Storage System Design - and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles - Battery Choices for Different Plug-In HEV Configurations - Cost benefit Analysis of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology - PHEV Energy Storage and Drive Cycle Impacts - Opportunities and Challenges for Alternative Fuels - The Future of Geothermal Energy - Looking Ahead - Biofuels, H 2, & Vehicles - Renewable Energy and Utilities: A Perspective from NREL - Efficiency and Renewables on the Grid: Getting to Significance - The Role of R&D in the Age of Renewable Energy -
128 References (cont) Climate Change: The Role of a Future Energy Economy - The Promise of Solar Electricity - Achieving Sustainability in Cities - Creating a Renewable Community: A Lifestyle Vision for Future Neighborhoods - Electricity from Renewables: An NREL Perspective FAQ's (Frequently Asked Questions) About Wind Energy...and Answers -