Renewable Electricity in California in September 2015

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1 Renewables International. Renewable Electricity in California in September 2015 Bernard CHABOT Renewable Energy Expert and Trainer 1

2 Summary and key findings Electricity demand increased by only 1 % between September 2014 and September 2015, with larger growth from solar at + 29 % and geothermal at + 18 %. In September 2015, renewable production of 3,525 GWh was 16.1 % of the demand of electricity of 21,926 TWh (14.9 % in 9/2014) compared to 5.2 % from large hydropower, 7 % from nuclear and 46.1 % from thermal conventional power plants. At 16.3 TWh in September, in-state electricity production was 74 % of the total demand, and at 5.62 TWh, imports covered 26 % of demand. Maximum mean hourly power values in June were 6,453 MW from Solar (mean: 2,031 MW, 1,462 GWh delivered, 6.7 % of demand), 3,370 MW from wind (mean: 1,207 MW, 869 GWh delivered, 4 % of demand), and for [Wind + Solar] 8,860 MW (mean 3,248 MW, 2,331 GWh delivered, 10.7 % of demand). Maximum hourly penetration rates in June were 13.1 % for wind, 24.2 % for solar, 28.9 % for [Wind + Solar] and 35.5 % for total RE (compared to 16.1% average). Utility scale PV maximum mean hourly power was 5748 MW, mean monthly power 1836 MW that delivered 1322 GWh, representing 90 % of the 1462 GWh of total solar in September and 6.03 % of the total demand (versus 4.68 % in September 2014). Solar thermal power maximum was 725 MW, mean power 195 MW that delivered 140 GWh or 10 % of total solar and 0.64 % of demand (vs 0.56 % in September 2014). Analysis in slides 43 to 47 of mean hourly average, maximum and minimum power profiles shows the advantage of combining solar PV and wind power production. 2

3 Content Introduction: 4 Electricity and renenwable power in California in 2015: 5-16 Electricity in California in September 2015: Renewable electricity in California in September 2015: Focus on solar PV and solar thermal power in September 2015: Hourly RE production and % of demand in September 2015: Duration curves for wind and solar power in Californaia in September 2015: Analysis of hourly maximum, average and mini power profiles for solar PV, solar thermal, wind power and [Wind + PV] in California in September 2015: Typical daily production and demand profiles in California in September 2015:

4 Introduction Refer to preceding articles on electricity production in CA: «Renewable Electricity In California in August 2015», online September 4, 2015 and downloadable as PDF at: «Will California decide to be a leader for a power breakthrough: replacing fossils and conventional nuclear by advanced nuclear: Hydrogen/Helium fusion and Uranium/Thorium fission?», online September 4, 2015 and downloadable as PDF at: «Renewable Electricity In California in July 2015, online August 5, 2015 and downloadable as PDF at: Renewable Electricity In California in June 2015, online July 3, 2015 and downloadable as PDF at : Analysis of the renewable electricity production in California in the first quarter of 2015 on line May 4, 2015 and downloadable as PDF at : Analysis of Electricity Production in USA up to 2014 with a Focus on Renewables And on Wind Power, on line March 19, 2015, and downloadable as PDF at : Renewable Electricity in California in 2013 with a focus on December, online January 3, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: Renewable Energy for Electricity in California in 2012 and its Future Role, online on August 19, 2013 and downloadable as pdf at: Renewable Energy for Electricity in California In 2012, online January 8, 2013 at: All hourly production data are from CAISO web-site: PV CAISO data is only utility scale PV > 1 MW. Geothermal data don t cover all geothermal 4

5 Electricity and Renewable Power in California in

6 Electricity production and imports in 2015: January to September 6

7 Monthly electricity production and imports in

8 Monthly electricity production and imports in

9 Share of Monthly Electricity Demand in

10 Monthly RE Electricity Production in

11 Share of RE Monthly Electricity Production in

12 Share of Demand from RE Electricity in

13 Monthly Wind and Solar Production in

14 Solar PV Production in California in 2015 (daily mean MW) 14

15 Solar Thermal Power Production in California in 2015 (daily mean MW) 15

16 [Solar PV + Thermal] production in California in 2015 (daily mean MW) 16

17 Electricity in California in September

18 Share of electricity demand in September 2015 Adding non-utility PV, solar produced slightly more than nuclear in 9/15 18

19 Changes of production and demand between 9/2014 and 9/2015 RE increased by 9%, with larger increase from solar by 29 % (+ 329 GWh/month) 19

20 * Since June 26, 2013, only two nuclear reactors are in operation in California (Diablo Canyon 1 and 2) * Renewables (including small hydro) delivered more electricity in July 2015 than nuclear and large hydropower combined, but less than in-state production from fossil fuels and less than imports 20

21 Daily production and imports in September

22 Renewable Electricity in California in September

23 * Utility scale solar (P > 1 MW) production in 9/2015 was higher than wind power * [Wind + Solar ] production was 66.2 % of RE and 50 % of [RE + Large Hydro] in September

24 Analysis of electricity production and demand in 9/2015 California Statistical analysis of daily production (MWh/day) September 2015 Max Min Max/Min Average Median Rel. St. Dev. GEOTHERMAL , ,2% BIOMASS , ,7% BIOGAS , ,3% SMALL HYDRO , ,8% WIND , ,0% SOLAR , ,1% RENEWABLES , ,0% HYDRO , ,9% Renewables + hydro , ,9% NUCLEAR , ,4% THERMAL , ,0% IMPORTS , ,1% Total demand , ,9% 24

25 * Utility scale solar power production was higher than wind power production in 9/2015 * Wind power was the most variable daily production, and solar production was low on 6 days 25

26 Daily RE production in September

27 Focus on Solar PV and Solar Thermal Power in September

28 * Within utility scale solar ( P > 1 MW), larger production was from solar PV (90 % of total solar), * Even with some solar thermal production being from natural gas complement 28

29 * Rather stable daily solar PV production in September, except on 6 days. * On those 6 days of low solar irradiation, solar thermal production was also low or very low 29

30 Daily solar thermal power production is more variable than PV and more very sensitive to low daily solar irradiation as there are no dedicated solar thermal storage capabilities now in California 30

31 Hourly RE Production and % of Demand in September

32 Hourly RE Power and Penetration Rates in September 2015 September 2015 P wind P pv P sol Therm P RE P demand P [PV+Thermal] P [Wind+Solar] Maxi MW Average MW Mini MW Median MW St. Dev Rel. St. Dev. 65,9% 119,8% 130,2% 48,2% 19,1% 119,9% 72,8% Penetration rates (% of demand) September 2015 % Wind % Total Solar % [Wind + Solar] % Total RE Maxi % 13,1% 24,2% 28,9% 35,5% Average % 4,0% 6,7% 10,6% 16,1% Mini % 0,38% 0,0% 0,5% 4,9% Median % 3,6% 8,3% 14,1% 32

33 RE and [Wind + Solar] Hourly Penetration Rates in 9/

34 % of demand from Wind, Solar, [Wind + Solar] in 9/

35 [Wind + Solar] Hourly Power in 9/

36 Wind Hourly Power in 9/

37 Total Solar Hourly Power in 9/

38 Solar PV Hourly Power in 9/

39 Solar Thermal Hourly Power in 9/

40 Duration Curves for Wind and Solar in September

41 Duration curves for Wind, Solar and [Wind + Solar] in 9/

42 Duration curves for PV, Solar thermal and [PV+ Solar thermal] in 9/

43 Mean, maxi and mini daily power profiles in 9/2015 for solar PV, solar thermal, wind power and [Wind + PV] 43

44 Daily power profiles for utility solar PV in September 2015 in California Example: in September 2015, at 10 am, PV power was between 2795 and 4982 MW and mean value was 4255 MW. Monthly average PV power was 1836 MW 44

45 Daily power profiles for solar thermal in September 2015 in California Example: in September 2015, at 10 am, solar thermal power was between 0 and 629 MW and mean value was 448 MW. Monthly average solar thermal power was 195 MW 45

46 Daily power profiles for wind power in September 2015 in California Example: in September 2015, at 10 am, wind power was between 142 and 2512 MW and mean value was 812 MW. Monthly average wind power was 1207 MW 46

47 Daily power profiles for [Wind + PV] in September 2015 in California Example: in September 2015, at 10 am, [Wind + PV] power was between 2975 and 6677MW and mean value was 5066 MW. Monthly average [Wind + PV] power was 3043 MW 47

48 Typical RE Production Daily Profiles in September

49 Maximum daily % of Renewables: September 4 49

50 Minimum daily % of Renewables and minimum solar and [Wind + Solar] production: September 9 50

51 Maximum solar production: September 3 51

52 Maximum Wind production: September 22 52

53 Minimum Wind Production: September 19 53

54 Maximum daily demand: September 10 54

55 Minimum daily demand: September 5 55

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