energy [r]evolution A Sustainable World Energy Outlook

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1 energy [r]evolution A Sustainable World Energy Outlook Wolfram Krewitt 1th Annual Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Expo June 14, 27 Washington Folie 1 > Vortrag > Autor

2 It is not important to predict future, but it is important to be prepared for the future. Perikles, 5 B.C. Folie 2 > Vortrag > Autor

3 Projection of technology development and socio-economic change Forecasting business-as-usual future world Alternative policy options long term target year required interventions and investments Backcasting Normative target world source: anonymous Folie 3 > Vortrag > Autor

4 EU target: to limit average global temperature increase to a maximum of 2 C compared to pre-industrial level. Stabilisation of global CO 2 -concentration below 45 ppm reduce energy related CO 2 -emissions from 27 Gt/a today to ~ 1 Gt CO2 /a in 25 per-capita emission rights in 25: ~ 1 t CO2 /a World OECD USA China Africa CO 2 /(capita, year) Folie 4 > Vortrag > Autor

5 a sustainable world energy outlook: the energy [r]evolution scenario key targets: climate change: limit global mean temperature rise to less than 2 C phasing out of nuclear energy on a global level incentives for sustainable economic development Folie 5 > Vortrag > Autor

6 1 world regions Folie 6 > Vortrag > Autor

7 population development 1,, 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, Middle East Africa Latin America South Asia East Asia China Transition Economies OECD Pacific OECD North America OECD Europe 1,, Folie 7 > Vortrag > Autor

8 GDP development projection Africa Middle East World Folie 8 > Vortrag > Autor Latin America South Asia average annual GDP growth rates in % OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Pacific Trans. Economies China East Asia

9 development of global final energy demand Business as Usual extrapolation based on IEA-WEO 24 Reference Scenario 6, 5, PJ/a 4, 3, 2, 1, Transport Other Sectors Industry Folie 9 > Vortrag > Autor

10 increase in global energy productivity by factor %/a 4 Mill. $ ppp,2 /PJ Folie 1 > Vortrag > Autor

11 global final energy demand by sector Reference Scenario energy [r]evolution Scenario 6, 6, 5, 5, PJ/a 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Transport Other Sectors Industry Transport Other Sectors Industry Folie 11 > Vortrag > Autor

12 final energy demand: China Reference Scenario energy [r]evolution Scenario PJ/a PJ/a Transport Other Sectors Industry Transport Other Sectors Industry Folie 12 > Vortrag > Autor

13 final energy demand: OECD North America Reference Scenario energy [r]evolution Scenario PJ/a 8. PJ/a Transport Other Sectors Industry Transport Other Sectors Industry Folie 13 > Vortrag > Autor

14 a broad range of renewable energy technology options is available PV boosting global markets, high innovation potential Ocean energy variety of successful demo projects in place, huge potentials Concentrating solar thermal power new incentives triggered market in Spain, base load RES electricity Solar heating high solar shares achievable with district heating networks & seasonal storage Off-shore wind large scale commercialisation about to start Biomass efficient combined heat and power production Folie 14 > Vortrag > Autor

15 potential of CO 2 reduction by CCS technologies (example: coal IGCC) specific CO 2 emissions in g/kwh η: 5% 42% transp. & storage 88% CO 2 capture -78% gas fired CC-CHP 1) electr. mix 25 OECD North America 2 C Scenario upstream power plant storage transport 1) with heat credit Folie 15 > Vortrag > Autor

16 global electricity supply 2 Scenario 5. TWh/a Efficiency Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass CHP fossil Gas&oil Coal Nuclear Folie 16 > Vortrag > Autor

17 future electricity supply structure - China 1, Reference Scenario energy [r]evolution Scenario TWh/a 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Efficiency Import RES Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass CHP fossil Gas&oil Coal Nuclear Folie 17 > Vortrag > Autor

18 global primary energy demand 9, PJ/a 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Efficiency Ocean energy Geothermal Solar Biomass Wind Hydro Natural gas Crude oil Coal Lignite Nuclear Folie 18 > Vortrag > Autor

19 global primary energy demand 9, 8, PJ/a 7, 6, 5, 5% energy savings compared to business-asusual 4, 3, 2, 1, 5% renewables Folie 19 > Vortrag > Autor

20 costs of global electricity supply crude oil $ 2 /bbl CO 2 $/t billion $/a energy [r]evolution Scenario - efficiency measures energy [r]evolution Scenario - electricity generation Reference - electricity generation Folie 2 > Vortrag > Autor

21 costs of global electricity supply crude oil $ 2 /bbl CO 2 $/t billion $/a energy [r]evolution Scenario - efficiency measures energy [r]evolution Scenario - electricity generation Reference - electricity generation Folie 21 > Vortrag > Autor

22 global investment in renewable electricity technologies energy [r]evolution scenario 5 billion $ per year geothermal, ocean energy concentrating solar thermal PV biomass wind hydro Folie 22 > Vortrag > Autor

23 Discussion achieving the 2 C target is technically feasible societal and structural innovation is required to facilitate the transformation process exploitation of energy efficiency potentials is a huge challenge adaptation of energy supply infrastructure investment in renewable energy technologies offers industrial development options current real world -trends deviate from 2 C-Scenario strong policy action is required! use a target oriented scenario as a policy benchmark! Folie 23 > Vortrag > Autor

24 Folie 24 > Vortrag > Autor

25 electricity supply OECD North America TWh/a Efficiency Import RES Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass CHP fossil Gas&oil Coal Nuclear Folie 25 > Vortrag > Autor

26 3, Increase secondary aluminium Energy savings per measure in 25 25, Efficient cooling equipment Iron and steel - electricity Reduce stand-by losses Efficient bus es Final energy demand (PJ) 2, 15, 1, Improved process control Membrane product separation Iron and steel - fuels Reduce electricity use during non-office hours Efficient m otor s ys tem s Efficient electric appliances Efficient lighting Heat integration / pinch analysis Agriculture 5, Efficient freight vehicles Improved heat insulation Improved energy-efficiency other industries - Constraint Ambitious Efficient passenger cars (hybrid fuel cars) Folie 26 > Vortrag > Autor

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