Heating technology mix in a future German energy system dominated by renewables

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1 Heating technology mix in a future German energy system dominated by renewables Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 4 th Congress of Polish Organization of Heat Pump Technology Development Warsaw, September 22, 2015

2 Overview German climate policy targets and the building sector Technologies for decarbonizing the heating sector Transformation pathway of the German energy system Summary & conclusions Folie 2

3 Overview German climate policy targets and the building sector Technologies for decarbonizing the heating sector Transformation pathway of the German energy system Summary & conclusions Folie 3

4 Development of German GHG emissions & target values until 2050 Folie 4

5 Energy related CO 2 emissions Germany 2013 Folie 6

6 source: "Politikszenarien für den Klima-schutz VI - Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr Öko-Institut et al. im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes (UBA), März 2013 Development of energy related CO 2 emissions Expected sectorial reductions from 2008 until % -22% -10% -57% -35% Strongest reduction expected for low temperature heat Folie 7

7 Building energy retrofit Reduction of CO 2 emissions in the heat sector 2030 targets Decarbonizing of heating techniques Target region Average value of specific CO 2 emission of heating technologies today about 220 g/kwh Folie 8

8 Reduction of CO 2 emissions in the heat sector 2030 targets Target region Average value of specific CO 2 emission of heating technologies must be reduced until 2030 by almost 50 % compared to today Folie 9

9 Reduction of CO 2 emissions in the heat sector 2050 target: climate neutral building sector Long term (2050) target Folie 10

10 Overview German climate policy targets and the building sector Technologies for decarbonizing the heating sector Transformation pathway of the German energy system Summary & conclusions Folie 11

11 Low carbon heating technologies Solar thermal Very low CO 2 emissions Potential in particular for domestic hot water Limited potential for solar assisted space heating Close to economic operation for hot water systems (life cycle cost) Large plants connected to district heating (Denmark) Biomass Today dominating renewable heat Very limited long term potential due to competition with other uses (energy, non-energy) High exergy content potential for high temperatur processes or cogeneration Folie 12

12 Low carbon heating technologies District heating Crucial regarding economic perspective for districts with strongly reduced heat density (due to building energy retrofit) Promising potential for urban energy management in dense areas including large scale heat storage ( Denmark) Various heat sources such as medium and large scale CHP, large scale heat pumps, solar thermal, industrial waste heat, deep geothermal Gas heat pumps Emerging technology; yet still small market High potential as follow-up technology for gas boilers highly efficient use of fuel (fossil, renewable) for heating application Folie 13

13 Low carbon heating technologies Cogeneration system (combined heat & power) Decreasing attractiveness with decreasing primary CO 2 emissions of electricity production Increasing operation control following electricity demand interaction with electricity grid Fuel cell CHP promising, but far from economic operation today Electric heat pumps Increasing attractivness with decreasing primary CO 2 emissions of electricity production Operation allows flexible electricity use ( smart grid), in particular in combination with heat storage or hybrid heat pumps (energy switch) Folie 14

14 Specific CO 2 emissions of heat from heat pumps Folie 15

15 Specific CO 2 emissions of heat from heat pumps Folie 16

16 Specific CO 2 emissions of heat from heat pumps Folie 17

17 Specific CO 2 emissions of heat from heat pumps Germany 1990 Folie 18

18 Specific CO 2 emissions of heat from heat pumps Germany 2013 Folie 19

19 Specific CO 2 emissions of heat from heat pumps expected Germany 2030 Folie 20

20 Overview German climate policy targets and the building sector Technologies for decarbonizing the heating sector Transformation pathway of the German energy system Summary & conclusions Folie 22

21 Optimization of Germany s future energy system Mimimize total annual cost (operation, maintenance, ) Electricity generation, storage and end-use Fuels (including biomass and synthetic fuels from RE) REMod-D Renewable Energy Model Deutschland Techno-economic optimization based on comprehensive simulation (hourly time scale) Mobility (batteryelectric, hydrogen, conv. fuel mix) Heat (buildings, incl. storage and heating networks) Processes in industry and tertiary sector Folie 23

22 Sun Solar thermal GW 58 PV GW 85 5 Methanation 20 GW 55 0 Battery stor. 0 0 GWh Total quantity heating 0 Conversion 17 Losses Final energy 280 Mobility Water Wind Environmental heat Deep geothermal Hydro power 21 5 GW Onshore wind GW Offshore wind GW Electrolysis GW 0 H2-storage 0 0 GW 0 Bio-2-H2 0 GW Bio-2-CH4 0 0 GW 19 Battery veh GWh 6 Pumped stor GWh 0 H2-2-Fuel 0 GW % 29% Renewables Fossil 0 Conversion 0 Losses 108 Final energy % 0% Total quantity hydrogen Renewables Fossil Total quantity gas 128 Conversion 0 Losses 502 Final energy Electricity (baseload) 375 Raw biomass Natural gas Petroleum Lignite Hard coal Uranium Folie 24 Renewable energy sources Renewable raw materials Primary fossil energy carrier 19 Bio-2-Liquid 9 1 GW Consumption sector Hydrogen Heat Gas 23% 77% Raw biomass Liquid fuels Electricity Renewables Fossil 335 Total quantity raw 141 Biodiesel 85 biomass GW Biogas plant 244 Conversion 0 Losses Processing 91 2 GT 1 72 Final energy GW 17 GW Biogas Bio-2-el. 0 CCGT 0 100% Renewables 0% Fossil 52 storage 0 GW 0 GW 0 Total quantity liquid fuels Reforming 0 District heat GW 50 GW 0 Conversion 126 CHP HP Losses 237 Final energy % Renewables 0 Oil PP 0 61% Fossil 0 GW 215 REMod-D Energy Electricity 0 Total quantity Import 98 electricity 37 Lignite PP 13 3 GW 271 Conversion 20 system model 88 Losses 501 Final energy 0 68 Hard coal PP GW 106 Electricity 0 87% Renewables 46 Surplus Export 13% Fossil 0 Nuclear PP 0 0 GW Energy conversion Storage 375 Industry (fuel based process) 445 Heating (space heating and hot water) 384 CO2 emissions 1990 (reference year) 990 Mio t CO 2 CO2 emissions 196 Mio t CO 2 CO2 reduktion related to 1990: 80% 11

23 Guiding question What is the cost-optimal transformation pathway of the German overall energy sytem including all end-use sectors under the boundary condition that the political goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are fulfilled both for the target value and in each single year? Further boundary conditions Fade-out of nuclear energy until 2022 No large scale implementation of CCS technology (carbon capture and sequestration) in fossil power plants Folie 25

24 Methodology Hourly simulation of the total energy system from January 1, 2014 until December 31, 2050 (using data from 2011, 2012 and 2013) Optimization of the development of the system composition considering all future options Renewables Storage and power-to-gas/fuel/heat technologies Energy retrofit of building sector Goal function: minimal overall transformation cost Results of a scenario with a reduction energy related CO 2 -emissions by 85 % compared to 1990 (Kyoto protocol reference value) Presentation of the full study: November5, 2015 in Berlin Folie 26

25 Boundary condition CO 2 reduction pathway Folie 27

26 Fluctuating renewable energies: solar, wind Installed capacity in 2050 Offshore wind 33 GW Onshore wind 168 GW ( 4*today) Solar PV 166 GW ( 4.5*today) Folie 28

27 Development of building energy efficiency Folie 31

28 Development of heating technologies >80 % heat pumps Folie 33

29 Origin of electricity for heat pump operation Based on hour-by-hour analysis of electricity composition Electricity from fluctuating renewable energy sources dominant Thermal buffer storage important for flexible operation Folie 34

30 Cost development (in bn p.a.) Constant penalty for CO 2 emissions 5 /ton No increase of prices for fossil fuels Reference: present system without change Folie 35

31 Cost development (in bn p.a.) Constant penalty for CO 2 emissions 5 /ton No increase of prices for fossil fuels Reference: present system without change Folie 36

32 Cost development (in bn p.a.) Constant penalty for CO 2 emissions 5 /ton No increase of prices for fossil fuels Reference: present system without change Folie 37

33 Cost development (in bn p.a.) Increase of penalty for CO 2 emissions up to 100 /ton in 2030; afterwards const. 2 % annual price increase for fossil fuels Folie 38

34 Cumulative overall cost comparison CO 2 cost price increase fossil fuels 85-%- scenario bn reference bn 85-%-scenario minus reference bn (%) 5 /ton 0 % p.a (+ 25 %) up to 100 /ton 0 % p.a (+ 2 %) 5 /ton 2 % p.a (+ 6 %) up to 100 /ton 2 % p.a ( 8 %) Assumed development of CO 2 penalty cost Folie 39

35 2050-system versus today cost after completed transformation Constant cost for CO 2 emissions 5 /ton No increase of prices for fossil fuels Folie 41

36 2050-system versus today cost after completed transformation Constant cost for CO 2 emissions 5 /ton 2 % annual price increase for fossil fuels Folie 42

37 Overview German climate policy targets and the building sector Technologies for decarbonizing the heating sector Transformation pathway of the German energy system Summary & conclusions Folie 43

38 Summary (1/2) Energy efficient building retrofit and decarbonizing heating technologies are needed in order to achieve targets for GHG emission reduction in the building sector Efficient overall systems using renewable energy will replace todays heating systems based on burning fossil fuels Increasing convergence of electricity and heating sector The heating sector provides promissing options for flexible electricity use in combination with a strong increase of electricity from fluctuating renewables (solar, wind) smart grid In the medium to long term heat pumps (electric, gas) will dominate heating of buildings Electric heat pumps are the upmost efficient technology in combination with decarbonized electricity production Folie 44

39 Summary (2/2) Achieving a CO 2 reduction of 85 % (compared to 1990) is possible by a significant increase in the use of renewable energies in combination with increased energy efficiency (e.g. in the building sector) Transformation of the German energy system to achieve a CO 2 reduction by 85 % will cost about 1000 bn more for the time period in case of stable prices for fossil energy sources and no increase in CO 2 penalties; this value corresponds to about 0.8 % of the German gross national product The transformation will be cost neutral in case of an annual increase of prices for fossil fuel by 2 % per year Once the transformation is completed the total annual cost of the energy system will not be higher than the cost of todays system, even in case of long term stable prices for fossil fuels The transformation of the energy system implies a shift of expenses from import of fossil fuels to local employment and value creation Folie 45

40 thank you for your attention. Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Hans-Martin Henning Folie 46

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