Future Energy Systems

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1 Future Energy Systems Integration of Renewable Energies Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmid* Member of WBGU - German Advisory Council on Global Change Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology in Kassel Foundation President of the European Academy of Wind Energy - EAWE Global Environmental Changes Renewable Energies Energy Efficiency Future Energy Systems *with the collaboration of Michael Sterner, Moritz Wickert and Jochen Bard

2 [Billion] 1 3 [ 1 0 k W h ] [ p p m ] Global Situation and Future Trends global growth rates for CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere energy consumption population

3 Abb 2.2-2a

4 Abb 2.2-2b

5 Global CO 2 -Emissions

6 Technical Potential Renewable Energies World-wide DLR / UNDP / Harvard Hoogwijk / DLR DLR FAO / WBGU UNDP / DLR UNDP / DLR UNDP sources: s. grafic

7 [GWh] Development of Renewable-based Electricity Generation Development of renewables-based electricity generation in Germany Germany since , ,000 Hydropower Biomass * Wind energy Photovoltaics EEG: January ,000 EEG: April 2000 EEG: August ,000 60,000 40,000 StromEinspG: January March 2000 Amendment to BauGB: November , * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic fraction of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; Source: BMU - E I 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: December 2012; all figures provisional

8 160 m Hub Height Turbine Laasow/Brandenburg

9 Floating Offshore Wind Source:NREL Vertiwind, FR BlueH, IT EDP, Principal Power, PT Sway, NO Hywind, NO HiPRWind Coordinated by Fh IWES

10 Potential of onshore Windenergy in Germany

11 Primary Energy and CO 2 Emissions in the Power Sector C O emissions 2 primary energy c o 2 P E [ % ] share of renewable energy in the power sector

12 todays cars average primary energy [kwh/km] Primary Energy and CO 2 Emissions for Cars with Combustion Engine and Electric Motor c o 2 P E C O emissions / km [ % ] share of renewable energy in the power sector electric motor

13 todays heat systems average primary energy [kwh / kwh th ] Primary Energy and CO 2 Emissions for conv. Heat Systems and electr. Heat Pumps c o 2 P E C O 2 emissions / kwh th [ % ] share of renewable energy in the power sector electric heat pump

14 Energiekonzept 2050 Vision for a sustainable energy supply based on 100 Percent renewable energies Energien June 2010

15 Electricity generation in Germany until 2050

16 Installed Power of renewable energies

17 Nutzenergiebereitstellung Wärme aus Erneuerbaren Energien [GWh/a] Renewable energies for heat Umweltwärme Kollektoren Biomasse/Erneuerbares Methan Gesamtnutzenergiebedarf für Wärme Quelle: ZSW

18 Endenergiebereitstellung aus Erneuerbaren Energien [GWh/a] Renewable energies for transportation Benzinersatz (regenerativ) Flugtreibstoff (regenerativ) Wasserstoff Gesamtbedarf Dieselersatz (regenerativ) Erneuerbares Methan Strom Quelle: ZSW

19 electricity cost [USD/MWh] Comparison of Electricity Costs IEA IPCC CO 2 capture 70 max. min Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Micro Hydro Coal (sub-bit.) New NGCC New PC New IGCC Coal (sub-bit.) New NGCC New PC New IGCC Sources: IEA, IPCC

20 Cost reduction potential of renewable energies compared to conventional power sources for the electricity sector

21 Differenzkosten der erneuerbaren Stromerzeugung [Mio. Euro] Development of additional costs in the electricity sector EEG-Vergütungen (Quelle: Handelsblatt 148/2012, Übertragungsnetzbetreiber) Wasser Wind Photovoltaik Stromimport Biomasse/Erneuerbares Methan Geothermie Summe Quelle: ZSW in Energiekonzept 2050 des Forschungsverbundes Erneuerbare Energien (erstellt Anfang 2010)

22 Differenzkosten der Nutzenergiebereitstellung für Wärme [Mio. Euro] Development of additional costs in the heat sector Wärmepumpen Biomasse/erneuerbares Methan Solarthermie Summe Quelle: ZSW

23 Additional costs in relation to absolute energy costs

24 Simulation of load- and production profiles for the year 2050

25 Need for conventional power bevore and after the transformation

26 Need for storage in different time domains

27 Trans- Continental power network

28 Balancing through combination of different power sources in the scale:1/ Wind Solar Biogas Hydro Import/ Export 12,6 MW 5,5 MW 4,0 MW 1,0 MW 1,0 MW

29 Load control through smart grids BEMI: Bidirektionales Energiemanagement-Interface

30 Deep sea pumped storage

31 Capacities of different storage concepts EE-Methan Quelle: Specht et al, 2010

32 Interaction between the electricity- and the gasgrid Quelle: Specht et al, 2009 Sterner, 2009

33 Renewable Methane (Power-to-Gas) Efficiencies 60-65% Methan 35-40% Strom 50-60% KWK Vs. 0% durch Abregelung Quelle: Specht et al, 2009 Sterner, 2009

34 Renewable Methane for the Transportation sector

35 Potential reduction of the primary energy consumption through the use of renewable energies bisher zukünftig

36 Primary Energy in EJ / a Vision for a Energy System with 100% Renewable Energy Change of primary energy demand world-wide until 2050 Scource: WBGU IEA World Energy Outlook Reference Scenario Energy Savings from lower Consumption Effiency Gains from: E-Mobility CHP and Heat Pumps Direct Power Generation (Wind, Solar, Hydro) Gas from Wind and Solar Solar Power Wind Solar Heat Geothermal Power Hydro Power Biomass Heat Biomass Power Nuclear Energy Fossil Natural Gas Oil Coal Year

37 Conclusion and vision Renewable Energies can improve energy efficiency dramatically A full supply with renewable energies is: Feasible in terms of technology Economically attractive in the long term Beneficial in terms of climate protection Important: Consideration of all system elements (systemic approach)

38 Fraunhofer Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Bremerhaven und Kassel advancing wind energy and energy system technology Kontakt: Weitere Informationen: Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmid Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Kassel Mitglied im Wissenschaftlichen Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen WBGU Tel

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