CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY

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1 国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 能 源 研 究 所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC April 20, 2015

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3 Core Working Group: Partnership Technical Support:

4 THE ACHIEVEMENT of CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO IS the KEY FACTOR for OUR BEAUTIFUL CHINA High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario Economic Dreams To get rid of fossil fuels is our 生 global 态 文 明 development 是 人 类 文 明 的 重 trend. 要 标 志 Ecological civilization is the moral high ground of human development. Ecological Dreams

5 THE ACHIEVEMENT of CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO IS VISION AND CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY Social Economic Middle Level of Developed Country Energy Strategy Low Carbon and Green Electricity for Future Ecological Environment Blue Air and Green Water

6 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GDP:4b CNY GDP:28.2b CNY,7 times the GDP in 2010

7 ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT The emission trends of various main air pollutants Pollutant Emissions Below the level of emissions in 1980 CO2 Emissions 3b tons of annual CO2 emissions, 2.17 tons of emissions per capita 3.99t t k tons Power sector emissions The level of global average emissions 1.4b tons in 2050, b tons in 2010 SO2 NOx smoke and dust SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 Atmo Hg China USA EU 10k tons CO2 Emissions (b tons)

8 MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050 The rate of electrification to be higher than 60% in end-use energy consumption The proportion of non-fossil energy generation to be higher than 91% 3.4billion tce of primary energy supply, and 3.2billion tce of end-use energy consumption 3X 22% 62% Twh % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.7b 3.4b GW of wind capacity, 2600GW of solar power capacity, and 9660TWh of total annual power generation

9 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO: PARTHWAY TEN CONLUSIONS OR TEN THINKS?

10 BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent ) 70% 60% 50% % 30% Coal Oil Nature Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Bio fuel Solar Power 20% 10% 0% SWH & Geothermal RE Share

11 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY Units : billion tons Units: million tce Reference High penetration Electricity Coke Chemical Manufacturing Services Residents Transport Argriculture Metal smelting

12 RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY TWh 100% % 82% 78% 88% 84% 91% 86% 90% 80% 70% % 67% 60% % 53% 50% % 28% 23% 34% 29% 41% 40% 30% 20% 10% COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW 0% WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share

13 WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER SUPPLY , 2204GW , 2056GW ,307GW ,174GW Wind PV&CSP Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

14 HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION Units: billion tce 62% 59% 54% 51% 47% 70% 60% 50% % 37% 41% 40% % 30% % % % Coal Oil products Nature Gas Electricity consumption Bio fuel SWH Geo thermal Electrification share

15 TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING RESCOURES ALLOCATION Inter-provincial Transmission Capacity Demand in High Penetration Scenario(GW)

16 TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM RE Wind power Forecast Hydro power Flexible generation Thermal power 储 能 电 站 Power System Flexibility PV Driverless EV Wireless charging Power Generation Regulation Output Regulation Smart metering Power Market Demand Response Ancillary Services Virtual data center Integration Operator Bidding at power market Coordinate EVs with smart vehicle network, driverless cars and wireless charging technology Business model: charging and discharging services, and shared EV services Recycle Battery, provide energy storage service to Grid Charging Station Mobile Station Driverless EV 国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 能 源 研 究 所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission EV

17 BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR NON-INCREMENTAL COST Yuan/KWh Transmission Cost Start-up costs Fuel Cost Variable O&M Fixed O&M Capital Cost kwh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario

18 AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY OF OVERALL ECONOMY 7.0% 6.0% Contribution of RE and related industries to GDP 6.2% Energy Sector Employment in 2010 (unit: 1000) Coal Oil Gas Electricity RE Nuclear R&D 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.9% Wind Solar EV Other RE Growth of Employment in RE and related industries (unit: 10000) Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Others

19 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND BLUE SKIES Units: billion tons 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Units: million tons % 5% % China USA EU China Share of Global 2050 China's CO 2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario 2050 China's SO 2 and NO X Emission in High Penetration Scenario Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data And data of other countries is trend prediction Data from IEA ETP 2014

20 2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO: PATHWAY Largest Challenge: Variability of Renewables!

21 Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability Through Changes: Internet + Supply Side Changes Stability? Reliability? Intelligence Comm Internet Demand Side Also Changes Energy Internet Internet of Things Flexibility

22 System with High RE Penetration Will Be a Reliable Power System Demand side flexibility Variable demand Variable generation Smart Control and realtime price Flexible generation units

23 Contribution of EV s Flexibility to the Power System Types and Numbers Passenger V Bus/Business/Delivery Vehicle Technology EV Plug-in Charging Mode Low Voltage AC DC Changeable Battery Operation Features Frequency of Charging Miles Trucks Fuel Battery Wireless Charging Time EV Charging and Discharging Load Daily miles Integration Charging Load Curves Charging control and Storage

24 New Business model of EV Will Change the Concept of Power Dispatch Fixed Stations Wireless Charging EV Integration Operator Wireless Charging Mobile Stations 流 动 站 点 退 役 电 池 回 收 EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System

25 Energy Storage of EV Case Study for 2030 in Beijing

26 880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support for Stable and Reliable Operation of the Power System in 2050

27 Hourly Dispatch on a Typical Day in High Penetration Scenario 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024 NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW MUNI_WASTE HEAT WAVE FUELOIL PUMPED_HYDRO

28 ACTION PLAN FOR HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION

29 BUILDING HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION FUTURE WILL BRING NON- ZERO-SUM RESULTS Market Oriented Economically Viable Consider both long term and near term Soft and Hard Supports Benefit the Whole Society

30 KEY ELEMENTS of THE ACTION PLANS Technology Revolution Extract potential of grid, strengthen infrastructure of provincial distribution network, especially 500KV interconnection lines for large wind and solar bases EV Industrialized,EV become pillar of vehicle industry or even of the national economy by 2025 Technology Innovation: Significantly increase electrification rate in end-use consumptions, flexible coal(target: 1000 hours), modernized manufacture and 3-Networks Integration Enter the era of Energy Internet by 2025: efficiently integrate EV, smart network, and Demand Response; annual installation of wind and solar power each hit 100GW Institutional Reform,Power Sector Reform ongoing in parallel with 13 th FYP implementation; Building a competitive power market in China within 10 years Reform of State Owned Enterprises: Improve Market Mechanism and break monopoly International Energy transformation of Germany(Learn and Cooperate) Denmark concepts to phase Cooperation out fossil energy Global energy governance is a trend,and conformed with Pareto Standard. Only cooperation will lead to win-win!

31 Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps are moving towards the end of own chosen target. Milan Kundera

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