Green and Secure. Challenges of increasing RES feed-in from a TSO perspective and from a power market point of view. René Müller

Transcription

1 Green and Secure Challenges of increasing RES feed-in from a TSO perspective and from a power market point of view René Müller

2 TenneT Two TSOs, one company Europe s first cross-border TSO Connections to 10 different TSOs centralized position in European power market Multiple interconnections (and additional ones are planned) to the Nordics km high voltage grid* 1,8 bn. revenues* employees secure power supply for 36 Mio. people* * 2012 data 2

3 1. The TSO perspective

4 Outside the market: Forecasted RES development in Germany Installed Capacity [MW] maximum load approx MW minimum load approx MW 0 Biomasse, Wasserkraft Wind Solar Major part currently not TSO-influencable with market mechanisms Sources: BMU nach Arbeitsgruppe Neue Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat) 4

5 Challenge 1 PV-forecast error: Deviations caused by fog Installed Capacity: MW in TenneT CA 3500 MW PV-Ist-Hochrechnung PV-Prognose 3000 MW 2500 MW Deviations up to 2,2 GW 2000 MW 1500 MW 1000 MW 500 MW 0 MW : : : : : : : : :00 Although we continuously improve our forecast accuracy, there is an increasing TSO demand for Balancing Power due to increasing PV feed-in 5

6 Challenge 2 High gradient of renewable feed-in MW MW MW MW MW MW 0 MW MW MW WIND PV Wind/PV Export Import MW MW 0 MW MW MW MW MW : : : : : : : : : :00 Storage of electricty is necessary and power plant mix must possess ability to allow for steep power gradients! 6

7 Special case: A solar eclipse MW Optimal radiation GW min 08:00 08:07 08:14 08:21 08:28 08:35 08:42 08:49 08:56 09:03 09:10 09:17 09:24 09:31 09:38 09:45 09:52 09:59 10:06 10:13 10:20 10:27 10:34 10:41 10:48 10:55 Time 75min 7

8 Challenge 3 The TSO s dilemma: The grid is not a copper plate Redispatch frequency increases: Year Days Redispatch Actions Nuclear phase out Germany 8

9 Increasing distance between consumption and supply The grid follows the generation pattern ++ Offshore- Windparks X X Power balance 2012 [MW] Source: Amprion GmbH Power balance 2022 [MW]

10 2. The Markets perspective

11 RES-levy development in Germany RES-levy [ct/kwh] Year 11

12 The German retail electricity price The average 2013 retail electricity price was ct/kwh EPEX Base Price [ct/kwh] Retail Price [ct/kwh] Price [ct/kwh] Source: BDEW data Source: EEX data, BDEW data In 2013, an average German 2 people household paid 906 for electricity, 166 were for RES only 12

13 Total Load (Demand) vs. Residual Load (Demand) Hourly Averages [GW] Total load Residual load The characteristic load peak at noon is on average smoothened by the high level of solar feed-in during midday hours. Overall reduction of (residual) load + Shift of peak hours to the morning and evening Total load = Gross generation Exports + Imports Stored energy Residual load = Total load Wind feed-in Solar feed-in (Data period: 10/ /2013) 13

14 Import/Export Position vs. Solar Power Feed-in Hourly Averages (01/ /2013) * Net position = Exports - Imports [MW] [MW] Net position Solar power feed-in Net position (incl. AT) Solar power feed-in (Data period: 01/ /2013) Graph suggests link between German solar feed-in and German export position throughout the entire period On average, Germany mainly assumes export position 14

15 Quo vadis energy market? From a market with some regulation to regulation with a bit of market triggered by the Energiewende, TenneT as an unbundled Transmission System Operator has contracted eight power plants with ca. 2,000 MW generation capacity and has been involved in securing fuel supply for Irsching 4 & 5 and Staudinger 4 financing maintenance and repairs for both power plants Irsching 3 and Staudinger 4 coordination of power plant revisions. Are we back to the future of market design? 15

16 Integration of RES into the electricity market is going to fail, unless: We secure a prompt onshore grid expansion The consumption will manage to actively participate in the power market (i.e. more Demand Response, Smart Grid, E-Mobility) We find a way how to properly address generation adequacy How can we attract new highly flexible generation resources instead of forcing them to shut down? Renewables energy sources will manage to provide ancillary services, e.g. balancing energy, voltage support We further promote cross-border market integration & harmonization of European energy policies We introduce ¼h products at PXs to properly mimic steep gradients We put in place effective and efficient RES compensation schemes 16

17 We have just reached the end of the beginning (Peter C. Doherty, Nobel Price Winner 1996) TenneT is Europe s first cross-border grid operator for electricity. With approximately kilometres of (Extra) High Voltage lines and 36 million end users in the Netherlands and Germany we rank among the top five grid operators in Europe. Our focus is to develop a north-west European energy market and to integrate renewable energy. Taking power further

18 BACKUP

19 Wind-forecast error Example: German-wide wind feed-in on 19th October 2010 (Installed capacity in GW; currently installed capacity ~35GW) MW MW Wind-Ist-Hochrechnung Wind-Kurzfristprognose MW MW MW 8000 MW 2,500 MW 6000 MW 4000 MW 2000 MW MW : : : : : : : : :00 Increasing TSO demand for Balancing Power due to increasing wind feed-in 19

20 PV-Prognoseabweichung durch Schnee Installierte Leistung: MW TenneT RZ (Stand Februar 2011) Abweichungen von bis zu 1,6 GW 20

21 Zusätzlich von Nord nach Süd: 5 GW NETZENTWICKLUNGSPLAN LEITSZENARIO B 2023 INKLUSIVE STARTNETZ zeigt zusätzliche Maßnahmen zum NEP 2012 auf. beschreibt ein bedarfsgerechtes Netz für das Jahr Optimierung in bestehenden Trassen AC-Neubau in Bestandstrassen: km AC-Verstärkungen und AC-Stromkreisauflagen auf Bestandstrassen: km DC-Stromkreisauflage: 300 km Netzausbau in neuen Trassen Trassenneubau: km 4 DC-Korridore - Übertragungsleistung: 12 GW - Trassenlänge: km Geschätzte Investition: 22 Mrd. 21