The Energy Transition in Germany Past, Present and Future

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1 The Energy Transition in Germany Past, Present and Future smart energy Paraná, Conferência International May 2014 Dr. Carsten Tschamber

2 A Brief History of the Energiewende oil crisis, Federal Environment Agency is founded (1974) ,000 Solar Roofs Program German power market is liberalised Renewable Energy Act (EEG) replaces Feed-in Act Nuclear meltdown in Chernobyl Ministry of the Environment is founded Commissions of remaining 17 nuclear plants extended by 8 to 14 years Publication of study entitled Energiewende (Energy Transition) Rappenecker Cottage: solarpowered, off-grid mountain cottage (Fraunhofer ISE) Feed-in Act establishes feed-in tariffs Nuclear phaseout by EU launches emissions trading system (ETS) Renewables supply 25 % of German electricity Fukushima: 40 percent of nuclear generating capacity switched off for good within a week, last plant to be shut down ~ Source: energytransition.de 2

3 Motivation of the Energy Transition Main targets: Increase share of renewables (current focus) Improve energy efficiency Save energy Reduce usage of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) for electricity, heat, mobility lower greenhouse gas emission Replace nuclear power Independence from fossil fuel imports local value creation, avoid resourcerelated conflicts Democratisation of energy supply central vs. distributed generation Cheaper energy supply Stimulate technology development export 3

4 German Climate Targets Targets set in 2010, currently under discussion and to be integrated in European concept GHG reduction target 2020 (- 40 % compared to 1990) will likely not be met Source: energytransition.de 4

5 The Renewable Energy Act (EEG) EEG provides the regulatory framework for the energy transition in Germany Established in 2000 and revised several times Core elements: Mandatory grid connection Feed-in priority for renewable energies merit order effect Feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, decreasing as costs for systems decrease (currently ~1 % per month, up to a certain limit and depending on how much is installed) Cost of feed-in is passed on to (some) customers as a surcharge (6.24 ct/kwh for 2014) 5

6 Renewables in Germany 6

7 Renewables in Germany 7

8 Renewables in Germany 8

9 System Price /KWp (net) EEG Drives Down PV Module and System Costs Other Cabling, grid connection Mounting + labour Inverters Modules 5 kw rooftop 30 kw rooftop 500 kw rooftop 5 MW open area Dramatic decrease in system prices (- 66 % since 2006) Cost reduction faster than learning curve not technology but market driven (dangerous!) Source: Fraunhofer ISE/BMWi 9

10 Reducing Electricity Prices: The Merit Order Effect Price Yesterday Coal Gas Power plants are ranked and switched on in the order of their cost of operation Hydro Nuclear Demand Price Price Today Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Demand Gas Renewables significantly decrease wholesale rates for electricity, benefitting large customers Reduces usage time mainly for gas-powered plants 10

11 Feed-in tariff in ct/kwh The Cost of the Energiewende: Photovoltaics Upper limit: small rooftop; lower limit: utility scale Difference between feed-in tariff and wholesale price is distributed among electricity customers, in 2013 roughly 20 bn. ; total 300 bn. Growing number of users are exempt, e.g. energy intensive industry EEG paradox: Renewables increase retail (surcharge), decrease wholesale prices (further reduced by dysfunctional CO 2 trading) Source: BMWi/ZSW 11

12 The Renewable Energy Surcharge 3.59 ct/kwh 5.27 ct/kwh 6.24 ct/kwh Market premium Reserves Deficit from previous year Industry privileges Decreasing wholesale prices Financing of renewable energies Surcharge increases mainly due to decreasing wholesale prices and industry privileges, not due to increase in installed renewables cost has to be paid by non-privileged customers Each GW of additionally installed onshore wind or PV would increase the surcharge by only ~ 0.02 ct/kwh Source: BEE 12

13 The People Source: energytransition.de 13

14 The People Source: energytransition.de 14

15 The People Source: energytransition.de 15

16 Cost of CO 2 /to. Carbon Trading Price of CO 2 certificates way too low to encourage energy efficiency and shift away from coal CO 2 Trading (ETS) needs to be revitalised 16

17 Volatility of Wind and Solar 21/1/2014 virtually no wind or solar 14/4/2014 ~50 % of peak load High volatility of wind and solar power more flexibility required (production, demand, storage, grid intelligence) Source: ISE 17

18 Energy Storage in Germany Electricity Natural gas Liquid fuels 1) Consumption [TWh/a] Average power [GW] ) 80 Storage capacity [TWh] ) 217 4) 250 5) Calculated operating range of installed storage capacity 6) [h] 0, ) Petrol, diesel, kerosene; final energy consumption 2) Seasonally fluctuating 3) Pumped hydro storage 4) 48 underground gas storage facilities [Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie (LBEG), Hannover] 5) Provisioning of petrol, diesel, kerosene and heating oil 6) Related to average power Installed PV power 36 GW / installed wind power 34.7 GW (2013) equivalent to average power consumption Required storage capacity for electricity grid in Germany: tens of TWh Source: ZSW 18

19 Power-to-gas Electricity grid Gas distribution system Wind Solar Power plant / Combined heat & power POWER GENERATION ELECTRICITY STORAGE Gas storage H 2 Electrolysis / H 2 buffer H 2 CH 4 Methanation CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 buffer CO 2 Electricity H 2 SNG Mobility Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Vehicle CNG Vehicle Batteries, Power-to-heat (e.g. heat pump) Source: ZSW 19

20 100 % Renewable Energies in Germany? 100 % renewable energy in Germany for electricity, heating and mobility is not only possible, but a business case! 20

21 Summary The Energy Transition and particularly the EEG have increased the share on renewables in Germany to ~ 25 % within two decades Feed-in tariffs if used wisely have proven to be an effective method to drive the renewables market (and prices for PV down) EEG will be revised 2014, heated debate ongoing e.g. self consumption Future: more control, more market, but probably less dynamics in Germany 100 % Renewable energy is possible in Germany and the most economical future source of energy! Further reading: - Excellent and up-to-date information about the Energiewende 21

22 Thank you very much for your attention! Solar Cluster Baden-Württemberg e.v. Industriestr Stuttgart, Germany Dr. Carsten Tschamber ph

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