Looking ahead: Future Scenarios for Europe s Power Supply Grid

Transcription

1 Michael Weinhold, CTO Energy Management European Utility Week Vienna, November 04, 2015 Looking ahead: Future Scenarios for Europe s Power Supply Grid siemens.com/euw

2 Global Wind and Photovolatic Power Plant capacities (total installed global generation capacity currently ca GW) Source: Page 2

3 Generation mix in 2030, example European Union (Forecast to be further verified) EU28 generation capacity until 2030 (TW) +1.4% Impact on Grid business % Integration of Renewables % 5.1% Grid extensions 9% 12% 3% 12% 50% 21% 12% 3% 9% 33% 0.5% 2.6% -0.7% -1.3% Stability challenges (less inertia, towards solid state grid ) Power quality and reliability of supply Cyber Security Automated operation and situational awareness New business models, solutions and customers 2015 Retirements Additions 2030 Regulatory uncertainty and public acceptance Solar PV Hydro Nuclear x% CAGR Disruptive potential from cheap storage Wind other Renewables Fossil (incl. Nuclear,Engines, CHP) Source: Siemens Page 3

4 Utilities face a variety of challenges which increasingly threaten business success Competition & Recommunalization Disruptive/Digital Technologies Changing generation profile Changing Market requirements Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder expectations Public pressure Regulatory framework Page 4

5 Agility is the key Page 5

6 Agility in Biology Charles Darwin: "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change. Source: Wikipedia Page 6

7 Agility: The ingredient for business success Competition & Recommunalization Disruptive/Digital Technologies Changing generation profile Changing Market requirements Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder expectations Public pressure Regulatory framework Page 7

8 Agility enabled through technology Page 8

9 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 9

10 Distributed Energy Systems Customer cases and benefits Efficiency and cost reduction Environmental protection Resilience BMW Landshut, Germany CHP (2.6 MW) and waste heat utilization (2.3 MW) from the production process generates energy savings of 2mn p.a. and reduces CO 2 emissions by 9,000 t p.a. Siemens Sacramento, U.S. >1.3MWp own renewable energy installed (PV) and planned further investments as contribution to Siemens' target to reduce CO 2 footprint by 47% until 2025 Co-Op City, Bronx, New York 14,000 apartment units got off the main power grid to control price of power with an installed 40MW CHP power plant; when Sandy hit, lights stayed on for >60,000 residents Page 10

11 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 11

12 Energy storage facilitates the integration of infrastructures and energy carriers Central Large Utilities Application cases by location of storage De-central Small utilities, municipalities, industry prosumer Pumped storage H2 Battery Thermal Electricity Electricity H 2 / H 2 Fuel Methane for car (gas grid) Electricity Heat Grid balancing and stability Power-to-gas Power-to-value Grid stability, self-supply, electro-mobility Power-to-heat Page 12

13 SIESTORAGE References here: Network Stabilization and Blackstart applications SIESTORAGE installation as standard container at the grid of ENEL, Italy for network stabilization with infeed of power from decentralized, renewable sources Commissioning in MVA/500 kwh SIESTORAGE installation in existing modernized substation of VEO* Eisenhüttenstadt, Germany for black start in the steel and rolling mill of Arcelor Mittal GmbH (AMEH) Commissioning in ,8 MVA /720 kwh One-stop-shop: From planning and installation through to commissioning and services Possibility of integration into prefabricated standard container or existing building * (Vulkan Energiewirtschaft Oderbrücke GmbH) Page 13

14 Energiepark Mainz Project scope and key facts Location: Mainz-Hechtsheim (DE) 3 high performance electrolysis systems, peak power of 2 MW el. each (6 MW peak) Highly dynamic operation over broad load range (ramp speed 10% per sec.) First Electrolyzer delivered mid of march Plant commissioned in July 2015 Page 14

15 Looking ahead: Power-to-value CO 2 from fossil-fired power plants Electricity + TO Synthetic fuels or chemical feedstock Methane (CH 4 ) Carbon monoxide (CO) Ethylene (C 2 H 4 ) Formic acid (HCOOH) Page 15 Market Price 81 /t 650 /t (Naphtha) 1000 /t Market Volume >2400 Mt/y > Mt/y 141 Mt/y 0.7 Mt/y

16 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 16

17 Significant grid access cost reduction driven by paradigm shift Current solution New solution Page 17

18 Siemens DC Grid Access based on der Diode-Rectifier-Unit DRU DRU key parameters - Encapsulated robust device - Environmental friendly less flammable ester insulation liquid - Simple and robust power electronics - Small platform with simple transport ans installation - High reliability, moderate maintenance efforts - Distributed offshore rectifier, DRU series connected with integrated DC bypass - Flexible offshore installation based on distributed rectifier principle Page 18

19 Virtual Power Plants: RWE, Stadtwerke München and Mark-E Integration of distributed generation and load flexibility into power markets Revenue improvement for distributed renewable generation Improved cost efficiency of mixed generation fleet Page 19

20 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 20

21 Aspern (Vienna), Austria Challenge Comply with requirements for reduced urban CO 2 footprint Solution Combining technologies used in smart buildings, smart grids and smart markets using data analytics and ICT Benefit Integration of shareholders into one electric ecosystem: Buildings: Optimized energy costs and energy consumption Distribution grid: Market facilitator and reliable energy supply under fast changing requirements Energy market: Flexibility becomes available Page 21

22 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 22

23 Digitalization optimizes investments of New Brunswick (NB) Power, Canada Gas-fired Peaker Plant (underutilized) Grid control system Energy exchange Billing Industrial Decentralized generation and consumer load bundled on a virtual platform To be used as a flexible single power plant e-mobility DEMS DRMS Benefits: Residential Optimization of investments Decentralized Generation DEMS: Decentralized Energy Management System Onshore Wind Commercial DRMS: Demand Response Management System New business model makes NB Power fit for the future CO 2 reduction Page 23

24 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 24

25 France-Spain Interconnector, 2014 World's first HVDC Project in VSC Technology with 2 x 1000 MW Customer Location Power Rating Type of Plant Voltage Levels Semiconductors RTE and REE Baixas, France to Santa Llogaia, Spain 2 x 1000 MW HVDC PLUS 65 km underground cable ± 320 kv DC 400 kv AC, 50 Hz IGBT Page 25

26 Experience Agility in Energy Improved market share and acceptance New technologies as enabler Integration of renewable and Distributed energy sources Playing new market designs Utility Operational Model Business Model Investments Shareholder satisfaction Public Acceptance Regulatory compliance Page 26

27 GIS 8DM kv for offshore wind turbine installation One gas compartment for circuit breaker, disconnector and earthing switches Worldwide leading F-gas free environmental friendly technology Proven vacuum interrupter unit technology Innovating clean air insulation medium Safe and easy handling High operation safety Page 27

28 How will the energy system look like in 2050 in such a fast-paced environment? Page 28

29 Germany: contribution and target corridors for Renewables 1st 6 months 2015: ca. 33% Page 29

30 Vision of the Future: the energy cell concept Digitalization Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3 Cell 4 Electricity grid / Supergrid Cell 5 Gas grid Cells negotiate energy exchange among themselves (peer-to-peer) Energy cell can be Community Factory Power plant Dedicated storage Facility Energy cell contains Power generation Thermal and gas grids Energy storage Power-to-X (-value) Dispatchable Loads ICT, self-organisation self-healing intelligence resiliency Page 30

31 Thank you! siemens.com/euw