Strategic Analysis of the US Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market Recovery from Financial Crisis Generating Strong Growth

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1 Strategic Analysis of the US Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market Recovery from Financial Crisis Generating Strong Growth February 2014

2 Contents Section Slide Number Executive Summary 4 Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 21 Definitions and Segmentation 29 External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 34 Forecast and Trends 40 Analysis of Consumer Lease Market in the United States 62 Competitive Analysis of the Fleet Leasing Participants 69 Key Conclusion and Future Outlook 80 Appendix 84 3

3 Executive Summary Key Findings The growth rate in the leasing segment will outpace purchased units as companies conserve cash and take advantage of the cost and personnel efficiencies that fleet management companies can provide The fleet and lease market experienced greater volume growth of over in 2012 to regain units lost during the 2008 to 2009 recession and is expected to show a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of from 2012 to Fleet management companies (FMC)/fleet leasing companies provide lease financing and fleet management services to corporate and government customers. Compared to outright purchase of fleet vehicles, the market for fleet leasing and management will grow at a CAGR of from 2012 to About of fleet leases are open-ended terminal rental adjustment clause (TRAC) leases, which provide the greatest flexibility to companies to control the timing of vehicle resale as well as its resale value. GE, Automotive Resource International (ARI), and PHH Arval accounted for over of the total fleet leasing and management market in 2012, with ARI having increased its vehicle parc over in 2012 alone. Rental car companies, which make up the largest customer segment in the US fleet and lease market, have right sized during the 2010 to 2012 economic recovery to reduce the size of their fleets. Vehicles added to the rental fleet fell from a record high of million (pre-recession 2007) to million in 2012, but the number is expected to rebound at a CAGR of and return to pre-recession levels of million units by General Motors, Ford, and Fiat-Chrysler Group accounted for of new fleet vehicle sales because they have historically focused on this segment as a way to promote their new models to retail. As the fleet and lease market has become more profitable, Asian and European original equipment manufacturers (OEM) will increase their participation in this segment. 5

4 Executive Summary Market Engineering Measurements High growth during 2012 was from the rebound of new car registration post recession, which is expected to flatten during the forecast period as the new car market completes its rebound from the recession. Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Market Engineering Measurements, US, 2012 Market Overview Market Stage Market Units Market Units at End of Forecast Period Growth M M (2012) (2020) Base Year Market Growth Rate Compound Annual Growth Rate Average Monthly Price Per Unit Number of Competitors $ to $ companies hold of market (2012) (CAGR, ) (2012) (2012) Decreasing Stable Increasing For a tabular version, click here. Note: Average monthly price per unit includes cost of deprecation, lease fees, and usage taxes. All figures are rounded. The base year is

5 Executive Summary Market Structure (continued) Frost & Sullivan expects vehicle leasing to both companies and consumers to grow to of total new vehicle registrations by Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Market Structure, US, 2012 New Light Vehicle Registration New Retail Registration New Fleet Registration Cash and Credit Purchase Consumer Leasing Company and Government Fleets Purchase by Rental Car Companies Currently, vehicle leasing to both companies and consumers accounts for about of total new vehicle registrations in the United States. Leased through Fleet Management Companies Company Owned/ Outright Purchased Vehicles 9

6 Executive Summary Total Vehicle Leasing Market Consumers still account for most new vehicle leases in the United States, and new lease originations in this segment will increase at a CAGR of from 2012 to Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Vehicle Lease Forecast, US, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2020 Unit Sales ($ Million) Consumer Lease Fleet Lease and Management for Company Cars Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is

7 Executive Summary Key Market Breakdowns Fuel efficiency and eco-norms will push the demand for passenger cars. Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Breakdown by OEM, US, 2012 Toyota Renault- Nissan Others*, General Motors Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Breakdown of Top 5 Industry Segments, US, 2012 Pharmaceutical Insurance Communication % Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Breakdown by Vehicle Segment, US, 2012 Unit Sales % Hyundai Passenger Cars Light Trucks Fiat- Chrysler Ford Food and Beverage Construction Company Car Sales Governmental Fleet Sales The US fleet market is dominated by General Motors, Ford, and Fiat-Chrysler. The share of passenger cars accounted for about of the total fleet market in 2012, and the same experienced a year-over-year (YOY) increase of. Companies in the communication and food and beverage industries account for the major share of the customer portfolio. *Others include other vehicle manufacturers. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is

8 Key Conclusions Fleet lease and purchase segments will see solid growth, with a focus on cost-effective fleet services. Past Slow economic recovery is hindered by unemployment and low job creation. Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Key Conclusions, US, 2012 Current Continued slow economic recovery, but with increasing credit availability, has increased buying in both the fleet and lease markets. Future Pent-up demand resulting from companies keeping vehicles longer will strengthen demand over the medium term. What More OEMs moving fleet sales to retail channels to increase their profitability could reduce volumes. Rising new vehicle prices will increase revenue. What More Demand will exceed prerecession levels. Technology growth for fleet management, fuel economy, and carbon reduction will increase prices. Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market How Increasing awareness of the cost benefits of fleet management and leasing will attract more new customers. Future Reduced government spending and concerns of a double-dip recession could restrain growth. What Outright purchases will continue to account for most fleet sales, but the share of leases will increase. 20

9 Research Scope Base Year Study Period Forecast Period Vehicle Type Geographical Scope to to 2020 Passenger cars and light trucks United States 22

10 Research Aims and Objectives Aim The aim of this study is to provide an industry overview of the light vehicle fleet and vehicle lease market in the United Sates and to explore new opportunities for future growth. Objectives Define the current size and forecasted growth of the fleet and lease segments of the US automotive market Understand the competitive structure of both segments Determine the market shares of OEMs, independent dealerships, and independent leasing companies in each market segment Identify any unmet market needs or weaknesses that can be converted to opportunities The study focuses in detail on the following elements: New fleet sales and vehicle lease (fleet and consumer leasing) External challenges of the fleet leasing market Analysis of the total cost of ownership (TCO) Competitor analysis in fleet leasing 23

11 Key Questions This Study Will Answer Fleet and Vehicle Lease Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, US, 2012 What is the business environment of the fleet and leasing market in the United States? What are the dynamics and trends of the market? What is the current market size? Which factors drive and determine the growth potential of the US fleet and leasing market from 2013 to 2020? What is the volume of rental car vehicles sold through the fleet channel in the United States? Who are the main market participants, and what is their market strategy? What is the structure of the market and how does it differ from fleet sales in Europe? 24

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