Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets Commercial Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: Light-Duty Cars and Trucks

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1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets Commercial Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: Light-Duty Cars and Trucks Many commercial and government fleet managers are increasingly relying on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) to help protect their budgets from increasing fuel costs and reduce emissions of their fleets. Fleet managers who calculate a lifetime cost for their vehicles are able to look past the higher initial costs for vehicles by looking at the overall cost including fuel and maintenance. In many areas with inexpensive fuel, these lifetime costs are still higher for hybrid vehicles than traditional vehicles, resulting in the need for grants, tax incentives or marketing benefits to justify the higher cost. Fleet managers mandated to reduce emissions often look to HEVs to replace traditional vehicles in order to meet emission reduction requirements. As they become available, fleet managers are also interested plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), though concerns about vehicle size and available may limit fleet applications of these vehicles initially. Pike Research anticipates that the fleet market for hybrid electric passenger cars and light duty trucks is expected to grow at a rate of 18% between 2010 and 2015, resulting in sales of more than 740,000 hybrid fleet vehicles worldwide in Hybrids will account for 3.7% of global light duty vehicle fleet sales in 2015, while the largest single market, the United States, will see hybrids reach 7.4% of light duty vehicle fleet sales. This Pike Research report analyzes the opportunities and challenges for light-duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs in commercial fleet markets around the world. The study examines global growth drivers and business case considerations for fleet managers, and includes detailed market forecasts, segmented by world regions and key countries, as well as profiles for key industry players. KEY MARKET FORECASTS: Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production by Region, World Markets: Annual Commercial Vehicle Registrations by Region, World Markets: Total Fleet Light Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: HEV Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: PHEV Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: Taxi Fleet Registrations in Top Cities, World Markets: TECHNOLOGIES: Hybrid Drivetrains: series, parallel, mild, full Hybrid Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Extended Range Electric Vehicles Battery Electric Vehicles Batteries: Lithium Ion, Lithium Titanate, Nickel Metal Hydride Advanced Batteries: Lithium Air, Lithium Sulfur Ultra-capacitors Regenerative braking Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Smart grid Alternative Fuel Vehicles GEOGRAPHIES: North America Latin America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Africa/Middle East

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS: 1. Executive Summary 2. Market Issues 2.1 History 2.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Passenger Cars Light Trucks 2.3 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Passenger Cars Light Trucks 2.4 Conversion of Hybrids to Plug-in Vehicles 2.5 Battery Electric Vehicles 3. Technology Issues 3.1 Vehicle Drivetrains Utilizing Electricity Micro/Mild HEV Parallel Hybrid Design Series Hybrid Design/Extended Range Electric Vehicle 3.2 Battery Technology Lithium Ion Battery Chemistry Lithium Titanate Batteries Safety Concerns Advanced Battery Chemistry Lithium Air Lithium Sulfur 3.3 Ultracapacitors 3.4 Regenerative Braking 3.5 Recharging Infrastructure Charging Equipment Recharging Data and Smart Grid Technologies 4. Demand Drivers for Fleet Markets 4.1 Market-Based Demand Greening of Corporate Fleets Reducing Fleet Emissions/Carbon Footprint Relationship between Hybrid Demand and Gas/Diesel Prices 4.2 Impact of Alternative Fuel Vehicles on Hybrid Vehicles United States EPAct Alternative Compliance Rules 4.3 Government Emissions Regulations United States CAFE Standards California Air Resources Board Canada Mexico Europe Japan China 4.4 Government Incentives United States Canada Latin America Europe Japan China 4.5 Other Regulatory Incentives 5. Key Industry Players 5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers BMW/Mini BYD Chery Daimler Ford Motor Co Fiat/Chrysler General Motors Honda Hyundai/Kia Mitsubishi Nissan/Renault PSA Peugeot/Citroen Toyota Motor Corp Volkswagen/Audi 5.2 New Manufacturers/Converters ALTe Bright Automotive CODA Automotive Detroit Electric Fisker Automotive Tesla Motors 5.3 Key Suppliers A123 Systems Continental AG Dow Kokam Inc EnergyCS (Battery Management Systems) GS Yuasa LG Chemical/Compact Power Panasonic EV Energy Remy International Inc Ricardo SB LiMotive Siemens UQM Technologies Valence Technology ZF Friedrichshafen AG 6. Market Forecasts 6.1 Global Vehicle Sales Forecast: Hybrid Vehicle Forecast: 6.3 Plug-in Hybrid Forecast: 6.4 Commercial Vehicle Registrations Forecast: North America Europe Asia-Pacific

3 6.5 Hybrid Electric Vehicle Fleet Sales Forecast: North America Europe Asia-Pacific 6.6 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Fleet Sales: 6.7 Battery Electric Vehicle Fleet Sales: 6.8 U.S. Fleet Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment: 6.9 U.S. HEV Fleet Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment: 6.10 Taxi Fleets Forecast: 6.11 Summary and Conclusions 7. Company Directory 8. Acronym and Abbreviation List 9. Table of Contents 10. Table of Charts and Figures 11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes TABLE OF CHARTS & FIGURES: Annual Global HEV/PHEV Sales, World Markets: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Mix of Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: 2015 Typical State of Charge for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Overall Estimated Fleet Vehicle Total Ownership Cost Model, United States Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production by Region, World Markets: Annual Vehicle Overproduction, World Markets: Hybrid (HEV/PHEV) Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual PHEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Commercial Vehicle Registrations by Region, World Markets: Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales, North America: Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales, Western Europe: Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales, Asia-Pacific: Annual PHEV Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales, World Markets: Annual BEV Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Light Vehicle Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: HEV Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: Taxi Fleet Registrations in Top Cities, World Markets: Mix of New Passenger Car and Light Truck Sales by Model Year, World Markets: Series and Parallel Hybrid Drivetrains Diagram Vehicle Fleet Average Fuel Economy, World Markets: CAFE Standards and Actual Fleet Average Fuel Economy, United States:

4 TABLE OF TABLES: Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, North America: Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Europe: HEV Costs Considered During Fleet Vehicle Acquisition Top Fleets by HEV Fleet Size, United States: Typical Vehicle GHG Calculation Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulations, United States: HEV, PHEV, and BEV Tax Incentives by State Top Fleets by HEV Fleet Size, United States: Annual Growth in Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production by Region, World Markets: Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production by Region, World Markets: Annual Vehicle Production vs. Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Annual Growth in Commercial Vehicle Registrations by Region, World Markets: Annual Commercial Vehicle Registrations by Region, World Markets: Fleet Light Vehicle Sales Growth Rates by Region, World Markets: Total Fleet Light Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in Total HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: HEV Fleet Sales Share of Total Light Duty Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: PHEV Fleet Sales Share of Total Light Duty Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in Total BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Total BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: BEV Fleet Sales Share of Total Light Duty Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in Hybrid (HEV/PHEV) Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Hybrid (HEV/PHEV) Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Growth in Hybrid (HEV/PHEV) Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Annual Hybrid (HEV/PHEV) Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: Light Vehicle Fleet Sales Growth Rates by Segment, United States: Light Vehicle Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: HEV Fleet Sales Growth Rates by Segment, United States: HEV Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: PHEV Fleet Sales Growth Rates by Segment, United States: PHEV Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: Overall Estimated Fleet Car Cost Models, United States Taxi Fleet Registration Growth Rate in Top Cities, World Markets: Taxi Fleet Registrations in Top Cities, World Markets:

5 Annual HEV Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: 800, , ,000 Africa/Middle East Asia-Pacific (Vehicles) 500, , , ,000 Eastern Europe Western Europe Latin America 100, North America (Source: Pike Research) KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED: What light duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are coming in the next few years? What are the key technologies used in hybrid vehicles? What types of battery technology are being used and why are different technologies being pursued? How do fleet managers decide if HEVs and PHEVs will be cost effective for them? How critical are carbon footprints for fleet managers and how do they calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the fleet? How do fleet managers decide between traditional vehicles, HEVs and PHEVs when making fleet purchases? How do alternative fuels impact the market for HEVs and PHEVs? What are government emission regulations and purchase incentives for HEVs and PHEVs? How large will the fleet market for HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs be globally? Who are the key industry players in the HEV, PHEV, and BEV market? WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT? OEM fleet sales managers and marketing managers Vehicle component suppliers Battery manufacturers Corporate and government fleet managers Government agencies Industry associations Environmental advocacy organizations Utilities Investor community REPORT DETAILS: Price: Pages: Tables, Charts, Figures: Release Date: $ Q 2010 TO ORDER THIS REPORT: Phone:

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