Corporate Finance in the Automotive Arena. - Navigating the next decade. of auto industry transformation -

Transcription

1 Corporate Finance in the Automotive Arena - Navigating the next decade of auto industry transformation - Jens Diehlmann Partner at IBM Global Business Services; Global Leader Captive Finance

2 Agenda 1 Who is Jens Diehlmann? 2 Navigating the next Decade of Auto Industry Transformation 3 The Global Automotive Market 4 Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market 5 Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Value Chain in the Automotive Industry 6 Open Issues and next Steps (Agenda for Wednesday and Thursday) Seite 1

3 1. Who is Jens Diehlmann? Apprenticeship Study of economics Consultant Senior Manager Partner 2002 today Partner & Executive 2 Seite 2

4 2. Navigating the next Decade of Auto Industry Transformation The book gives an outlook on the future of the global key industry Automotive as well as the interaction with the financial services sector and uncovers the following issues: How does the future market look for the automotive manufacturers? What are the strategic steps auto manufacturers should take to position themselves for the future? What are some competing development scenarios for the industry? What is the role of captive finance companies within automotive enterprises? What alternative business models should captive finance companies pursue in the future? What conclusions can be drawn from the takeover battle between Porsche and Volkswagen AG? Seite 3

5 3. The Global Automotive Market Development of car sales in specific markets: Car Sales YoY% E 2011E 2012E 2013E CAGR China 7% 52% 12% 6% 5% 4% 13% Japan 3% 8% 1% 2% 6% 4% 0% India 2% 11% 13% 10% 11% 10% 10% US 18% 20% 10% 13% 8% 4% 2% Brazil 14% 12% 9% 9% 6% 4% 9% Russia 19% 50% 13% 27% 27% 10% 3% W. Europe 9% 1% 7% 5% 4% 4% 1% Total 6% 6% 2% 8% 7% 5% 2% * Source: Credit Suisse Equity Research; Automobile & Components; 21. January 2010 Based on the economic crisis in 2008 / 2009 the estimation of passenger car sales in specific markets (in %) varies greatly 4 Seite 4

6 3. The Global Automotive Market Shifts in regional distribution: ib ti Since the mid 1960`s the regional leadership of car manufacturers has changed dramatically. This change will continue 5 Seite 5

7 4. Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market What are the core elements of Corporate Finance? Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Initial Public Offering (IPO) Private Equity / Venture Capital Going Private Valuation Will be scrutinized by Joachim Häcker in further details 6 Seite 6

8 4. Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market Transactions in the automotive ti industry in 2008 and 2009 Geely acquired Volvo from Ford for 1.3 bn (08/10). Renault-Nissan acquired a 3.1% stake of Daimler for 1.2 bn (04/10). Volkswagen acquired a 19.7% stake in Suzuki for 1.7 bn (01/10). Fiat acquired certain assets in Chrysler for 1.5 bn (06/09). Porsche acquired a 7.9% stake in Scania for 0.4 bn (02/09). The number of financial transactions in the years 2008 & 2009 shows a clear trend to horizontal integration (M&A s or Alliances) 7 Seite 7

9 4. Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market Porsches s takeover attempt of Volkswagen: A case that makes history (details will be scrutinized in the M&A section) 8 Seite 8

10 4. Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market The consolidation trend of brands at the global automotive market will continue 9 Seite 9

11 4. Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market The current landscape of premium vs. volume manufacturer shows great differences 10 Seite 10

12 4. Corporate Finance Activities in the Global Automotive Market A look into the future of OEM positioning 11 Seite 11

13 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain Market Cap (26/08/2010) Toyota 94.1 bn Volkswagen 20.8 bn Honda 45.6 bn Daimler 40.3 bn Nissan 25.8 bn BMW 25.1 bn Ford 30.3 bn Fiat 10.1 bn Renault 9.5 bn PSA 4.8 bn One of the key requirements to take advantage from strategic opportunities will be the financial i strength of the OEM`s 12 Seite 12

14 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain The market for financial products and mobility services is characterized by great competition 13 Seite 13

15 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain Integrated automotive and financial services value chain 14 Seite 14

16 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain Captive Finance companies are the main profit contributor for the OEM`s 15 Seite 15

17 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain While Captive Finance companies have become more and more mature the number of financial and mobility services has increased 16 Seite 16

18 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain With the help of new technologies Captive Finance companies will enhance their product and service portfolio 17 Seite 17

19 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain Strategic t opportunities for the OEMs: Promote Used Car Financing Develop and Expand Fleet Customer Business Introduce and Expand Products with Risk Adjusted Pricing Establish Bank Branches Change your name in a bank holding-company Process governance structures and operating concepts Optimize sectors Refinancing, Liquidity Management and Risk Management together with the OEM Establish Finance Companies in Russia, China, India and Brazil! (see next page) 18 Seite 18

20 5. Financial Issues - the core Elements of the Automotive Value Chain Global light vehicle sales and production in 2009: US - 20% W. Europe - +5% 1% Russia -50% Japan Brazil +12% +9% India +11% +10% China +52% +6% +8% The number of sold new cars in 2009 in the US and overall-europe breaks in at -20% and - 1%. In the BRIC-countries ti we also see major differences in growth rates. 19 Seite 19

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22 We expect a major shift in customer demand on alternative mobility services in the near future. 6. A look into the future of new mobility services offerings The study examines how mobility is changing in the medium-term and what impact this will have on the entire industry. Captive Finance Companies will play an important role in developing future mobility solutions Our current global Advance Mobility Study is conducted in more than 25 countries with approx. 150 executives and experts and will be released by October Seite 21

23 7. Open Issues and next Steps (Agenda for Wednesday and Thursday) QUESTIONS Seite 22