Strategic Analysis of the North American Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance. N7A9-18 December 2010

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1 Strategic Analysis of the North American Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance December 2010

2 Table of Contents Scope, Definitions and Research Methodology 10 Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline 12 Partial List of Industry Participants 13 Usage Based Insurance and Stakeholder Definition 14 Executive Summary 16 Overview 17 Product Life Cycle Analysis 18 World Market Overview of Usage-based Insurance 19 Industry Challenges 20 Insurer and Telematics Service Provider Competitive Landscape An Overview 21 Key Conclusions 23 Overview of Key Market Trends 24 PESTLE Analysis 25 Legislation Trends 26 Key Highlights of California s Approval of Pay-As-You-Drive Regulations 27 Application Trends 28 Trends towards Convergence 29 Open Telematics A Path to Integrating Multiple Services on Single Platform 30 Advantage through Telematics 31 Value Proposition to Insurance and Leasing Channels 32 Industry Challenges 33 Market Drivers and restraints 34 4

3 Table of Contents (Contd ) Market for UBI North America 37 Scenario Analysis - Key Assumptions 38 Year-on-year Activations for UBI in the United States 39 Installed Based for UBI in the United States 40 Pricing Analysis of Telematics Solution for UBI 41 Benefit and Drawback 42 Current Value Chain 43 Expected Future Value Chain 45 UBI Models by Various Insurers and Profiles of Telematics Service Providers 46 Market Share of Insurance Companies for UBI in North America An Overview 47 Insurance Company Involvement 48 Snapshot from Progressive in the United States 49 The Low-mileage Discount Program from GMAC in the United States 50 Drive Safe and Save from State Farm in the United States 51 Competitive Landscape of OnStar in North America 52 Competitive Landscape of ATX/Cross Country Automotive Services in North America 53 Competitive Landscape of Hughes Telematics in North America 54 Competitive Landscape of Progressive Insurance in North America 55 Competitive Landscape of Octo Telematics in North America 56 TSP Benchmarking 57 5

4 Table of Contents (Contd ) Key Conclusions and Recommendations for Passenger Car UBI 58 Key Conclusions 59 Strategic Recommendations for Insurance companies 60 Strategic Recommendations Telematics Service Provider 62 Strategic Recommendations for Suppliers and Other Market Participants 63 A UBI Perspective for Commercial Vehicle Market 64 Overview of UBI for Commercial Vehicle Market 65 Market Drivers and Restraints 66 Insurer Perspective for Commercial Vehicles 67 Why Driver training is Essential 68 Industry Challenges 69 Realization Factors to be Addressed 70 ROI Analysis for Commercial Vehicle 71 Commercial Vehicle Value Chain 72 Overview of Green Road Services 73 Commercial Vehicle Case Study 74 Key Conclusions 75 Appendix 76 Acronyms 77 About Frost & Sullivan 78 6

5 List of Figures Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Insurers Competitive Landscape (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: TSP s Competitive Landscape (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: GHG Emission Standard (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Scenarios considered for the Usage-based Insurance Market (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Value Chain (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Insurance Company involvement (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Snapshot Profile Overview (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: The Low-mileage Discount Program Profile Overview (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Drive Safe and Save Profile Overview (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Competitive Landscape of OnStar (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Competitive Landscape of ATX/Cross Country Automotive Services (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Competitive Landscape of Hughes Telematics (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Competitive Landscape of Progressive Insurance (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Competitive Landscape of Octo Telematics (North America),

6 List of Charts Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Expected Year on Year Activations (North America), 2010 and Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Estimated Market Share of Insurance Companies (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Product Life Cycle Analysis (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Overview (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Industry Challenges (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Drive Safe and Save Profile Overview Highlights (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Current Business Structure (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Pestle Analysis (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Fuel Economy Regulations CAFE (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Scalable Telematics Services (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Industry Challenges (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Drivers and Restraints (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Drivers (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Restraints (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Year on Year Activations for Usage-based Insurance (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Installed Base for Usage-based Insurance (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Pricing Analysis of Telematics Solution Cost (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Benefits and Drawbacks (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Current Value Chain (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Expected Future Value Chain (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Share Analysis of Insurance Companies (North America),

7 List of Charts (Contd ) Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Snapshot - Model (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: The Low-mileage Discount Program - Model (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Drive Safe and Save - Model (U.S.), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: TSP Benchmarking (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Insurance Company Recommendations (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Telematics Service Provider s Recommendations (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Supplier and Other Recommendations (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: UBI Overview for Commercial Vehicle Market (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Drivers and Restraints for Commercial Vehicles (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Insurer Perspective for Commercial Vehicles (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Why Drivers Training is Essential (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Insurance Telematics for Commercial Vehicles (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: ROI Analysis for Commercial Vehicle (North America), Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Commercial Vehicle Value Chain (North America),

8 Overview UBI Benefits the Low-mileage and responsible drivers with the need to promote value added telematics based services on a single platform Early adopters like Progressive Insurance and GMAC have amassed market intelligence and have learnt valuable lessons. This experience is enabling them develop viable business models. Progressive Insurance will continue to be the dominant player in the market The market for UBI will be successful in North America after 2015 due to influx of new insurance companies and policies post Frost & Sullivan believes to see about ~ million activations by 2017 Viable business model and OEMs involvement in telematics will lead to the growth of UBI. Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Estimated Market Share of Insurance Companies (North America), 2009 State Farm ERIE The Hartford American Family Travellers 21st Century Safeco Activations (Million) Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Expected Year on Year Activations (North America), 2010 and ~xxx,xxx Activations ~ Million Activations UBI Activations Note:The projected forecasts is based on passenger vehicles sold only Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: So What Analysis (North America), 2010 Benefits to Insurance Companies CAGR x% 2010 Year 2017 Fewer accidents means lesser claims to the insurance companies GMAC Progressive Insurance Note: All the information provided are based on announcements and results of pilot tests of insurance companies Attracting high mileage drivers is the biggest challenge Insurance companies should partner with an end-to-end telematics providers Vehicle manufacturers need to play active participation New solutions need to be tested/implemented to lure them Telematics solution can be leased rather than sold and the insured (customer) will not bear the cost of the same Systems suppliers and Insurance companies should partner with vehicle manufacturers 17

9 Product Life Cycle Analysis Increased activation rates are dependent on the growth and introduction of telematics-based solutions being offered as a package Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Product Life Cycle Analysis (North America), Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) is a growing telematics service with insurance companies, tying up with the system supplier. New regulations have been approved and auto insurance companies have begun offering PAYD solutions in California. Progressive and GMAC are early adopters having high growth potential. UBI penetration is based on the growth of telematics market and introduction of telematics-based solutions offered as a package (example: RVD, e-call, SVT) UBI is likely to experience improved activation rates with the growth of integrated telematics product services. Navigation is primarily an aftermarket at the moment. Low cost and high volumes will differentiate the systems from the aftermarket (PND). Introduction Growth Maturity Navigation Stolen Vehicle Tracking (SVT) PAYD Remote Vehicle Diagnostic Service (RVD) Emergency Call (e-call) Market is primarily aftermarket-oriented at the moment and is driven by the state wise insurance/customer requirements. RVD and e-call are in the infant stages. The offering of these systems needs to be promoted by vehicle manufacturers to cut down on warranty costs and improve end consumer service. These systems lack legislation and proven business case in North America when compared to Europe. Frost & Sullivan estimates that integrated telematics product services is expected to push growth post

10 World Market Overview of Usage-based Insurance With More UBI projects in pipeline, the market for UBI is expected to witness increased activations rates year on year around the world Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Market Overview (World), 2010 AUSTRALIA Real Insurance - PAYD is unique in Australia. The product depends on customers reporting their odometer reading and they pre-pay for mileage and not for the GPS device. SOUTH AFRICA JAPAN Hollard insurance offered PAYD through the Tracker SkyTrax GPS device and calculates premium based on kilometres travelled on a monthly basis. The device also helps to track stolen vehicles. Aioi - Since 2005, Aioi s version of PAYD was developed in partnership with Toyota, using the latter s G-Book terminals. This system calculates mileage per month. An Overview of the World Market for UBI EUROPE Italy has the largest market for UBI in Europe. The country had more than 400,000 UBI activations in France was the second-largest UBI market, with about 30,000 activations in There was a recent rebirth of UBI in the United Kingdom after the launch of Coverbox through five different insurance companies. Octo Telematics is the leading telematics service provider in Europe CANADA ISRAEL Aryeh insurance offered PAYD - billed monthly using mileage data collected by small wireless transmitters in vehicles and receivers at fuel pumps offered by PAZ. About 15 per cent of all vehicles had the device installed for automatic payment. Vancouver city council and regional district passed a resolution demanding the insurance corporation of British Columbia to offer PAYD insurance. ipaid (Aviva) in Canada offers UBI solution based on mileage driven. INDIA Crimson, a Logica company has introduced pay as you drive following the launch of the Emission Monitoring Solution in 2009 in India. This product allows the customers of an insurance company to pay according to their daily travel routine. Other insurance companies working on pilots are HDFC Ergo, ICICI Lombard and Bajaj Allianz 19

11 Industry Challenges Developing tariff models for various customer segments is a big challenge Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Industry Challenges (North America), High Medium Customer perception - Benefits perceived by customers are less than what it is in reality Difficulty in developing pricing model for different customer segments Data security - Ensuring adequate security measures to prevent software threats. Privacy relating data collection, storage, underwriting is of utmost apprehension Luring high mileage drivers - Insurers should advance their understanding of how insurance works and save money for this segment of drivers Low 20

12 Insurer and Telematics Service Provider Competitive Landscape An Overview Progressive s Snapshot program, based on mileage, time of the day driven, driver's acceleration and braking patterns has been implemented in 27 states and are expected to be market dominators Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Insurers Competitive Landscape (North America), 2010 Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: TSP s Competitive Landscape (North America), 2010 Insurance Company Passenger Car Commercial Vehicles Commercial/Pilot PROGRESSIVE INSURANCE -- Commercial (PC) GMAC Commercial (PC) +Pilot TSP Flexible and Open Architecture Platform Aftermarket Solution Capable to Offer End-to- End Solution for UBI Telematics Services offered other than UBI HARTFORD Commercial (PC/CV) + Pilot STATE FARM Commercial/Pilot (PC) ONSTAR Not now, may be in Future AAA Pilot (PC) UNIGARD Pilot ATX/CROSS COUNTRY Not now, may be in Future TRAVELLERS Commercial (PC) ERIE Pilot FARMERS Pilot HUGHES TELEMATICS both Hardware and Services ALLSTATE Commercial + Pilot SAFECO -- Commercial -Teens PROGRESSIVE Own Hardware and UBI service 21st CENTURY -- Commercial - Teens AMERICAN Commercial Teens -- FAMILY + Pilot GEICO -- Commercial (CV) OCTO TELEMATICS Available Not Available No Navigation LIBERTY MUTUAL Commercial (CV) CV Commercial Vehicles ; PC Passenger Cars Note: All the information provided are based on announcements and results of pilot tests of insurance companies 21

13 The current market is controlled and driven by Insurance companies with the services being leased/rented to TSP s to the Insured on contractual basis Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Drive Safe and Save Profile Overview Highlights (U.S.), 2010 GM GM runs the On Star programme OnStar State Farm can activate UBI for OnStar subscribers State Farm Insurance UBI Policy Name Insurance Company Drive Safe and Save State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co Continental Suppliers Offers discount calculated based on mileage driven UBI Algorithm Insured customer gets a discount of up to xx per cent and annual savings of $xxx ( both parameters are based on miles driven per year) Verizon Insured Hardware Supplier Insured Telematics Service Provider (TSP) Hardware Installer Market for Telematics-enabled Usage-based Insurance: Current Business Structure (North America), 2010 GSM Communication Operator Assistance Operators Insurer Map Supplier Billing Engine Moving Forward Database Management Insured customer will have the flexibility of switching between different insurers within the contract period and can have the same hardware and telematics solution. The UBI methodology to calculate the premium will be straightforward. TSP s are going to have multiple partnerships with different insurance companies (insurer) to form a single UBI programme. Online sales are likely to be the prominent mode of selling UBI programmes. Many insurance companies are largely investing in building online sales portal, as it helps in comparing prices and aids customers to build their own policy. 22

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