Automotive Monitor. August 2014 Automotive Monitor

Transcription

1 1 Automotive Monitor 1

2 Trend 1 Tracker NOLVs: Values for OEM parts were mixed, due to certain gross margin declines and changes in inventory mix. result of better overall market conditions, NOLVs for aftermarket replacement parts remained consistent. NOLVs: Despite improved gross margins, as well as an increase in selling prices as a NOLVs: Values increased for aftermarket accessories due to rising sales and an increase in new products offered at higher gross margins. 1

3 Overview 2 After getting off to a slow start in 2014 amid freezing winter weather, the domestic automotive industry has proved to be a consistently strong sector of the U.S. economy, with sales continuing to rebound. In the first half of 2014, unit sales totaled 8.2 million vehicles, an increase of approximately 4.3% from the same period of Experts originally projected sales to reach 16 million by year-end, yet are now projecting even higher totals. Consistent sales increases set the tone for the overall automotive industry, as a higher number of new vehicles on the road translates into higher demand for various OEM parts and tires. Additionally, as research continues to show that the average age of cars on the road hovers near peak levels, demand for aftermarket parts is strong as well. As consumers continue to hold onto cars longer, the need for replacement and repair parts increases. Due to the discretionary nature of many aftermarket accessories, demand for these items are traditionally linked to disposable incomes. Recent reports indicate that consumer spending in June 2014 witnessed modest growth, following a similar increase in May. Personal income exhibited a slight increase as well, which bodes well for the U.S. economy as a whole. 2

4 Overview 3 Following tepid winter sales, the U.S. auto industry witnessed renewed growth in spring, with May 2014 representing a third straight month of sales increases following March and April. Sales in May increased approximately 11.3% from the same month in 2013, with the annual sates rate of 16.8 million vehicles representing the strongest witnessed since prior to the 2008 recession. The strength continued through June, with sales increasing 1.2% over 2013 levels. The month marked yet another milestone in the automotive sector, with the annual sales rate of 17.0 million representing the best experienced since June In the first half of 2014, the U.S. automotive industry sold approximately 8.2 million vehicles, an increase of 4.3% over the same period in July s performance was softer than predicted, as sales for the month increased approximately 9% over the prior year, falling short of the 11% gain projected by industry analysts. However, as summer sales incentives are expected to continue to lift sales in the coming months, experts assert 2014 will post growth overall. Electric cars continue to be a growing segment, with nearly 55,000 plug-in vehicles sold thus far in 2014, a 35% increase as compared to the same period of U.S. Auto Sales 12 Months Ended July 2014 versus 2013 (in Units Sold) 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 This Year Last Year 3

5 Overview 4 According to a recent press release, Ford sold over 212 thousand vehicles in July 2014, which is a 10% increase from the previous year and the company s best performance in eight years. The increase was attributed to strong sales for its Ford Explorer and Ford Fusion models, which posted gains of 32% and 17% respectively. Its F-Series line of pickup trucks continued to be popular items, with sales increasing 5% at 63 thousand trucks sold for the month. General Motors reported that unit sales totaled 256,160 vehicles in July, which represents a 9% increase from 2013 and its best performance since Retail sales increased 4%. Performance was strong across the company s brands, with every GMC nameplate posting sales growth for the month. Chevrolet-branded vehicles witnessed an increase in deliveries of 8% in July. Chrysler Group reported its best July since 2005 with sales of 167,667 vehicles for the month, representing a 20% increase from Jeep was the group s strongest brand, with sales increasing 41% from the same month in 2013, representing the brand s best July sales in the company s history. Ram also performed well for the month, with sales increasing 14%. U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales Year-to-Date July 2014 versus 2013 General Motors Ford Toyota Chrysler Honda Nissan Hyundai Kia Volkswagen Subaru BMW Daimler Mazda Mitsubishi Jaguar-Land Rover Volvo Porsche Tesla Maserati Ferrari Suzuki 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Year-to-Date - July 2013 Year-to-Date - July 2014 Source: Autodata Corporation 4

6 Recent 5 Appraisal Trends Manufacturers and distributors in the OEM parts sector have posted strong performances in the second quarter of 2014, with sales increasing an average of 10% to 20% as a result of increased business with existing customers. Gross margins tend to fluctuate based on market prices, as well as the number of new contracts added or lost per year and the gross margin associated with the lost or gained contact. Overall, GA s engagements exhibited mixed gross margins, fluctuating five percentage points in either direction. Inventory levels for those companies supplying the OEM market have been mixed, with changes driven by the number of new contacts entering the market and old contacts expiring. Sales of aftermarket replacement parts were steady on an annual basis for GA s recent engagements. Gross margins increased slightly, in a shift from previous monitors, with GA noting a gain in gross margins of approximately one point. Gains were aided by stronger market conditions, as well as the introduction of slight price increases on some industry products. In general, inventory levels have remained consistent since the previous monitor. Inventory levels for products that perform well have increased, yet this was offset by companies improving their inventory management and therefore maintaining minimal levels of slow-moving products. The aforementioned factors have led to relatively consistent NOLVs for participants in the aftermarket replacement parts sector. NOLVs for OEM parts were mixed in the second quarter of Gains were driven by increased sales as well as improved management of obsolete inventories. Improvements were partially offset by the increases in lower-recovering raw materials and work-in-process inventory. Aftermarket accessories consist of both cosmetic and performance-enhancing products. These items are typically discretionary in nature and, as a result, industry performance is often dependent upon the greater economy. 5

7 Recent 6 Appraisal Trends In general, sales increased on an annual basis, approximately 5% to 10% year-over-year. The increased sales can be attributed to an overall improvement in market conditions, as well as a rise in the number of new products offered. Along with increased sales, gross margins increased zero to two percentage points. Margins were positively impacted by the aforementioned improvement in market conditions. Additionally, some industry participants have introduced new products at higher price points, which has positively impacted margins. Inventory levels for thus far in 2014 have increased, with companies maintaining higher inventory levels for those products which perform well. As a result of improvements in sales, gross margins, and inventory mix, NOLVs for aftermarket accessory parts increased for the second quarter of However, the amount of increased varied by participant, anywhere from zero to five percentage points. 6

8 Experience 7 GA has worked with and appraised numerous companies within the automotive industry. While our clients remain confidential, they include companies throughout the automotive supply chain, including manufacturers, importers, distributors, and retailers of aftermarket, performance, replacement, and OEM parts and accessories. GA s extensive list of appraisal experience includes: A remanufacturer and distributor of alternators and starters for imported and domestic vehicles with over $170 million in sales and over $60 million in inventory, including $20 million of core inventory. A U.S.-based producer and recycler of automotive and industrial lead acid batteries, with locations throughout North American and the world, an inventory of approximately $200 million, and sales of $1.2 billion. An Internet retailer of aftermarket replacement automotive parts, including auto body and engine parts, as well as accessories, to customers worldwide. The company s $50 million of inventory includes approximately 1.8 million types of aftermarket auto parts for nearly all makes and models of domestic and foreign cars and trucks. The company s nearly $300 million in sales are primarily generated via hundreds of websites. OEM parts suppliers to the big three U.S. automakers, which includes manufacturers of transmission, interior, wheel, and accessory products. A distributor of replacement passenger, light truck, and commercial truck tires, including winter, four-season, and high-performance tires. A wholesale distributor and retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories, including engine and exhaust components such as fuel injectors, steering and suspension parts, oil and air filters, performance parts, shock absorbers, chassis parts, gaskets, water/fuel pumps, brake drums and rotors, and other related aftermarket automotive replacement parts. A designer, manufacturer, and distributor of specialty products for the performance automotive aftermarket, specializing in motorcycles and boats, with products including fuel, air, and internal engine management systems, which are designed to enhance vehicle performance through generating increased horsepower and torque. GA has also liquidated a number of manufacturers and distributors of OEM and aftermarket parts, including Midas Corporation, Trak Auto, Smittybilt Outland Automotive Group, Inc., and American Products Company, Inc. In addition to our vast liquidation and appraisal experience, GA maintains contacts within the automotive industry that we utilize for insight and perspective on recovery values. 7

9 Monitor 8 Information The Automotive Monitor relates information covering most automotive products, including industry trends, market pricing, and their relation to the valuation process. GA provides our customer base with a concise document highlighting the automotive industry. GA strives to contextualize important indicators in order to provide a more in-depth perspective of the market as a whole. This publication will provide you with market value and industry trends for a variety of products within the automotive sector. GA internally tracks recovery ranges for parts, but we are mindful to adhere to your request for a simple reference document. Should you need any further information or wish to discuss recovery ranges for a particular segment, please feel free to contact your GA Business Development Officer. GA s Automotive Monitor provides market value and industry trend information for a variety of automotive products. The information contained herein is based on a composite of GA s industry expertise, contact with industry personnel, liquidation and appraisal experience, and data compiled from a variety of well-respected sources believed to be reliable. We do not guarantee the completeness of such information or make any representation as to its accuracy. 8

10 Appraisal 9 & Valuation Team Mike Marchlik National Sales & Marketing Director mmarchlik@greatamerican.com (818) Jennie Kim Vice President, Western Region jkim@greatamerican.com (818) Ryan Mulcunry Executive Vice President - Northeast Region, Canada & Europe rmulcunry@greatamerican.com (617) Dan Williams Managing Director, New York Region dwilliams@greatamerican.com (646) David Seiden Executive Vice President, Southeast Region dseiden@greatamerican.com (770) Bill Soncini Senior Vice President, Midwest Region bsoncini@greatamerican.com (312) Drew Jakubek Managing Director, Southwest Region djakubek@greatamerican.com (972) Mark Weitz President mweitz@greatamerican.com (818) Ken Bloore Chief Operating Officer kbloore@greatamerican.com (818) Thomas Mitchell Project Manager, Automotive Parts/Petroleum Specialist tmitchell@greatamerican.com (818) About Great American Group Great American Group is a leading provider of asset disposition solutions and valuation and appraisal services to a wide range of retail, wholesale, and industrial clients, as well as lenders, capital providers, private equity investors, and professional services firms. In addition to the Automotive Monitor, GA also provides clients with industry expertise in the form of monitors for the chemicals and plastics, metals, food, and building products sectors, among many others. GA offers the European Automotive Monitor via its subsidiary, GA Europe Valuations Limited. Headquarters Burbank Blvd. Suite 300 South Woodland Hills, CA GREAT 9