Joint Channel Forecast Model 2015 Conducted by IHS-Polk

Transcription

1 Joint Channel Forecast Model 2015 Conducted by IHS-Polk A collaborative effort between the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association and Auto Care Association

2 About the Joint Channel Forecast Model The Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA), the voice of the aftermarket supplier, has partnered with the Auto Care Association to produce the 2015 Joint Channel Forecast Model. This collaboration is a joint effort to produce a single industry view of the size, growth rate and outlook for the automotive aftermarket. By taking a broad view of the aftermarket, the Joint Channel Forecast Model captures the full impact of diverse parts and pieces of the aftermarket. The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association and Auto Care Association by IHS driven by Polk, the renowned economic and market information firm. It is based on the U.S. Census Bureau s Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS economic analysis and forecasting models. Originally the forecast was created in 2002 by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (a division of the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association) and Auto Care Association.

3 Topline Aftermarket Forecast

4 Key Takeaways Automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% until The automotive aftermarket is expected to increase 37.6 billion dollars from billion in 2014 to billion in Price is expected to account for approximately 80% of the average annual growth in

5 Market Total (in billions of dollars) % Change Year-Over-Year Light Vehicle Aftermarket Growth % % 4.0% % % % 0.0% % F 2016F 2017F 2018F -2.0% Note: Unless stated, totals include labor, tires, warranty, and oil.

6 Light Vehicle Aftermarket Growth Year Market Total in Billions of Retail Dollars % Change 2008E % 2009E % 2010E % 2011E % 2012E % 2013E % 2014E % 2015F % 2016F % 2017F % 2018F %

7 Historical Light Vehicle Aftermarket Growth 300,000 Market Total in Billions of Dollars 250, , , ,000 50,000 -

8 Price / Volume Split of Forecast Growth 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% F 2016F 2017F 2018F Price Volume This chart overlays IHS s aftermarket inflation expectations with its aftermarket forecast. As you can see price, rather than volume, is the main driver of aftermarket growth. Price is expected to account for approximately 80% of the average annual growth in Volume will account for only 0.8 percentage points of the 3.6% average annual growth in Note: Numbers include total market, not just supplier volume and price increases

9 Overall U.S. Inflation Versus Maintenance and Service Inflation 6.0% Consumer Price Index (CPI) vs. CPI for Motor Vehicle Maintenance & Repair 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% The consumer price index for motor vehicle maintenance and repair is expected by IHS to exceed that of the general economy over the next four years. 0.0% -1.0% F 2016F 2017F 2018F Consumer Price Index CPI, Motor Vehicle Maintenance & Repair

10 Independent Aftermarket Share of Total Market 71% 71% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 69% 69% 69% 68% 68% 67% 67% 68% 68% 66% F 2016F 2017F 2018F

11 Estimated Forecast Splits Methodology In the past, there has often been requests for findings from the channel forecast to be subdivided into specific industry segments, such as DIY vs. DIFM and parts vs. labor. Therefore a number of years ago, experts from industry companies and the associations determined splits based on their experience. These splits are estimates only. This split has been kept constant for many years to allow comparability. The Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association and Auto Care Association utilize the same market estimates and assumptions in a joint effort to produce a single industry view of the automotive aftermarket. The key assumptions for the estimated segment splits on the following pages are presented in the table below: Description Tire Sales DIFM Share Assumptions Historical data through 2013 sourced from Modern Tire Dealer. Tire sales in forecast years assumed to grow at the same pace as the overall aftermarket. = ~80% sales Therefore, please treat the data on the following slides as indicative only. The data is based on the assumptions at left, which are estimates. We recommend applying your own segment share estimates in the calculations, if available. Contact AASA with any questions. DIY Share Tire Sales Estimated Parts Share of DIFM Retail Sales = ~20% sales All tire sales and labor are assumed to fall in DIFM 55%

12 Estimated Forecast Splits (1/2) Description F 2016F 2017F 2018F Total Aftermarket DIFM vs. DIY DIFM Share ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% ~80% DIFM Sales (includes labor) DIY Share ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% ~20% DIY Sales Non-Tire DIFM vs. DIY (Parts & Service DIFM vs. DIY) DIFM Sales Tire Sales DIFM Sales (non-tire and including labor) DIY Sales Note: All numbers (except percentages) are in billions of dollars

13 Estimated Forecast Splits (2/2) Description F 2016F 2017F 2018F Size of the Aftermarket Parts Market - at Retail Price DIFM Parts & Service Sales (non-tire) Estimated Parts Share of DIFM 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% DIFM Parts at Retail Price (excluding labor) DIY Total Aftermarket Parts at Retail Price Note: All numbers (except percentages) are in billions of dollars *Note: Total Aftermarket Parts at Retail Price is the sum of DIFM and DIY Parts at Retail Price

14 Estimated Aftermarket Parts Sales at the Retail Level Total Aftermarket Parts at Retail Price

15 Alternative DIY / DIFM Split From AASA s DIFM Outlook 2025: A Dynamic Battleground Note: Total market size does not include labor, warranty, tires or oil

16 Factors Affecting Growth

17 Average Age of Light Vehicle Continues to Climb 12 Average Age of Light Vehicles in Use (Years) AASA Key Takeaway: Average age of light vehicles continues to climb and drive automotive aftermarket growth. However, may be near a peak Source: IHS-Polk

18 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Percent (%) U.S. Unemployment Returning to Pre- Recession Levels 12.0 U.S. Unemployment AASA Key Takeaway: U.S. Unemployment returning to lower levels helps drive end consumer demand. 0.0 Source: BLS

19 Miles Driven Back to Pre-Recession Levels 3,200 Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billion Miles) 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 AASA Key Takeaway: One of the biggest tailwinds the aftermarket is facing is the resurgence in annual vehicle miles traveled. After a long stagnation, miles driven is increasing and growing steady again. 2,000 Source: US DOT; data through 2/2014 (latest available as of 5/1/2014)

20 Pending U.S. Growth Slowdown 4 US Real GDP, % Change F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

21 Appendix A: Full Data Set

22 Sales by Channel: History & Forecast Channel Sales (Millions of Dollars) F 2016F 2017F 2018F Market Total 208, , , , , , , , , , ,279 New Car Dealers 60,591 57,434 57,758 59,881 62,153 63,807 66,106 68,632 71,434 73,463 75,749 Used Car Dealers 1,677 1,663 1,758 1,812 1,834 1,859 1,888 1,931 1,981 2,023 2,069 Other motor vehicle dealers 4,461 4,420 4,559 4,765 4,983 5,223 5,473 5,751 6,048 6,271 6,499 Automotive Parts & Accessories stores 22,183 21,933 23,031 24,618 25,520 26,271 27,183 28,245 29,411 30,273 31,112 Tire Dealers 14,348 14,046 14,785 15,628 16,150 16,654 17,242 17,957 18,728 19,302 19,921 Home furnishings stores Electronics & appliance stores Home centers Paint & wallpaper stores Hardware stores Other building material dealers Lawn & garden equipment & supplies stores Supermarkets & other grocery (except convenience) stores Convenience stores Beer, wine & liquor stores Pharmacies & drug stores Other health & personal care stores Gasoline stations with convenience stores 4,075 4,061 4,197 4,374 4,540 4,724 4,914 5,111 5,374 5,565 5,766 Other gasoline stations 5,611 5,549 5,795 6,081 6,343 6,614 6,873 7,250 7,692 7,938 8,200 Clothing & accessories stores Sporting goods stores Book, periodical & music stores Conventional department stores (excl. leased depts) Discount or mass merchandising dept stores (excl. leased depts) 2,758 2,724 2,789 2,839 2,877 2,914 2,963 3,031 3,099 3,160 3,223 Warehouse clubs & superstores 8,483 8,684 9,341 10,015 10,527 11,214 11,796 12,414 13,094 13,596 14,141 All other general merchandise stores ,016 1,074 1,135 1,180 1,226 Miscellaneous store retailers Electronic shopping & mail-order houses 4,242 4,351 4,639 5,015 5,368 5,762 6,178 6,617 7,081 7,501 7,927 Fuel dealers Other direct selling establishments General automotive repair shops 31,684 32,064 33,567 35,006 36,040 37,038 38,179 39,585 41,445 42,619 43,923 Automotive exhaust system repair specialists 1,377 1,391 1,453 1,527 1,590 1,650 1,712 1,776 1,860 1,930 1,997 Automotive transmission repair specialists 2,659 2,719 2,883 3,025 3,143 3,263 3,379 3,497 3,655 3,773 3,893 Other automotive mechanical & electrical repair & maintenance 2,153 2,164 2,306 2,399 2,460 2,513 2,570 2,629 2,715 2,789 2,859 Automotive body, paint & interior repair & maintenance 23,256 23,534 24,622 25,753 26,356 26,948 27,484 28,216 29,199 29,915 30,663 Automotive glass replacement shops 3,079 3,102 3,252 3,408 3,514 3,614 3,707 3,835 4,000 4,135 4,274 Automotive oil change & lubrication shops 4,631 4,600 4,886 5,083 5,288 5,458 5,693 5,927 6,234 6,486 6,751 Carwashes 5,384 5,404 5,612 5,843 6,025 6,158 6,372 6,615 6,936 7,147 7,382 All Other automotive repair & maintenance 1,110 1,114 1,171 1,221 1,272 1,307 1,349 1,400 1,468 1,508 1,557 Personal & household goods repair & maintenance Wholesalers 1,951 1,946 2,034 2,129 2,189 2,254 2,306 2,368 2,444 2,511 2,588

23 Appendix B: Background, Assumptions and Contact Information

24 Background In 2002, DRI-WEFA (now IHS) developed a model to provide a complete historical and forecast database of light duty automotive aftermarket sales by channel of distribution. Initiated as a joint project of MEMA (AASA) and Auto Care Association, the original model was intended to determine the dollar value of motor vehicle aftermarket sales through the various channels of distribution. The resulting data gave the automotive aftermarket a single point of reference to anchor the various estimates of its size. The project consultant is IHS. IHS is considered a leader in economic and financial analysis, forecasting, and market intelligence for more than 40 years ( The Channel Forecast Model uses the 1997, 2002 and 2007 U.S. Economic Census data to determine the present (nominal) dollar value of sales at end user prices for each of the automotive aftermarket s channels of distribution and totals the channels to provide a complete market overview. The automotive aftermarket, as it is defined for this project, consists of all non-warranty, retail sales of parts, accessories, and services for light vehicles. Included are retail sales of paint, tools and equipment for repairs (including for collision repair), trim and interior products, vehicle restorations, replacement glass and tires. The automotive segment of the aftermarket includes the replacement parts, accessories, chemicals, tires and non-warranty service for passenger cars and light trucks. The model accounts for the potential doublecounting of revenue by including only those sales that are classified as sales made to the general public. Using the 2012 Economic Census data as a base, the model: Estimates values of Economic Census results for those years that are not covered by the report. Forecast out, through 2018, the values of the census data. Included in the estimated/forecasted values referenced above are a set of 41 motor vehicle aftermarket s channels of distribution agreed upon for use as the set of NAICS subcategories. These 41 channels are all the categories from the Census that displayed automotive sales. There are four main sources of data used as inputs in the model are (1) U.S. Economic Census data; (2) R. L. Polk & Co.; (3) Industrial Marketing Research Inc.; (4) IHS. Baseline data for this model are the 1997, 2002 and 2007 Economic Census data. From this baseline data, the remaining three sources are used as drivers for the model. The Census survey provides information on sales by both product line and NAICS codes, all of which are released every five years. Due to the volume of information collected, it takes the Census Bureau approximately four years to release the data following the reporting year. As a result of this, the results from the 2012 Economic Census are unlikely to be incorporated into the model until Industrial Marketing Research (IMR) provides data from their Continuing Consumer Auto Maintenance Survey, which provides replacement rate data broken out by 27 ML/RL (product codes) for 10 types of vehicles, by age. This survey is conducted at the end of each quarter and includes 100,000 participants and approximately 187,000 vehicles, annually. R. L. Polk provides ACA with vehicle registration (parc data) each year. This data is lagged by one year, but is not a result of sampling. The data is broken into 10 vehicle classes and vintage. IHS s data is a combination of proprietary data and macroeconomic data that pertains to the automotive aftermarket industry and includes unit sales of cars and light trucks, a variety of CPI indices, retail sales for different automotive related channels, etc. This data is used as the initial demand driver within the model and acts as the primary forecast drivers. 24

25 Assumptions Model Review: The most recent Economic Census data was incorporated into the model during the 2012 update. The complete set of relevant data from the study won t be released until The most significant historical changes within this current forecast refer to the results for The table below highlights the growth projection for 2014 from last year s forecast for the total aftermarket as well as three of the largest sales channels. The three channels shown make up over 50% of total aftermarket sales. Our previous forecast for 2014 total aftermarket sales growth was 3.1%. Our new forecast has revised that growth upwards, to the current value of 3.5%. The revisions were fairly balanced across the major channels. While new vehicle sales came in above our estimate, total vehicles in operation exceeded our forecast as well. More importantly, the labor force grew faster than expected and combined with lower gas prices to result in an increase in miles driven that was much higher than forecast. Forecast Assumptions: The long-term economic view for the United States remains very positive. Most of the direct benefits to consumer spending from lower gasoline prices have already been injected into the economy. Multiplier effects and the increased buying power from lower inflation will drive a continuation of this growth. Trade impacts and falling industrial investment will restrain GDP growth despite strong underlying consumer demand. Employment growth continues to boom, which may spur interest rate hikes but that is not expected to have a material effect on the economy s 2015 growth momentum. The consumer outlook for the next two years is looking brighter due to elevated levels of consumer confidence, lower energy prices, housing market improvement, and stronger income support. Market Forces Driving the Aftermarket: While 2015 has gotten off to a slow start, full year Nominal GDP growth should reach 4% for the year, and is forecast to average 4.4% annually from 2015 through Disposable income growth is expected to grow at a similar rate of 4.5% during the forecast period, which is the highest four-year stretch of disposable income growth since ten years prior. New vehicle sales are expected to come in just under 17 million units in 2015, a level not seen since That will result in an average of over million vehicles sold annually from 2013 to 2015, which is a three-year average not seen since prior to the recession. By the close of 2014, the 252 million vehicles on the road just topped the pre-recession high of From 2014 to 2018, the total vehicles in operation should increase nearly 10% to just under 277 million vehicles. The addition of 25 million vehicles to the fleet will come while the mix of vehicles continues to shift. While vehicles 12+ years old are predicted to increase 15%, those 5-11 years old will decline by 21% as the new to 5 year segment will grow 32%. The average vehicle age remains unchanged at 11.4 years. The significant fall in gas prices that began in late 2014 was driven by a combination of over-supply and weakened demand. As a result, gas prices are expected to remain depressed through the forecast period, with the average gas price not expected to return to the $3/gallon range until late In the 3 months of November 2014 to January 2015, nominal consumer spending on gasoline fell by $100 billion, resulting in a significant consumer dividend that has helped spur overall consumption. Total miles driven increased 1.7% in While miles driven was trending up slightly throughout 2014, when gas prices started to fall the miles traveled figure started to accelerate its climb, with December 2014 and January 2015 numbers each up 5% compared to the previous year. With gas prices expected to remain low, combined with a steadily increasing labor force, total miles traveled should return to steady growth rates in the 2% range. With the driving age population expected to increase 1% annually, vehicle miles per capita will finally start to see growth again. Continued growth in new vehicle sales and rising disposable income should benefit the dealer and retail channels within the aftermarket. A rising labor force and falling gas prices have been a boon to vehicle miles traveled, but long-term demographic problems remain. The labor force participation rate (those working or looking for work) remains at levels not seen since the late 1970s and while it should increase slightly through 2018, it is not expected to top levels seen as recently as 2012 as baby boomers retire out of the work force. There is also a demographic shift, as those baby boomers are reducing their vehicle fleet and usage at a faster rate than millennials are increasing theirs. Total Aftermarket Sales (% change) New Car Dealer Sales (% change) Auto Parts Stores (% change) General Auto Repair (% change) 2015 Update Estimate Final 3.1% 3.5% 3.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 2.6% 3.1% The IHS forecast for total US aftermarket sales calls for growth of 3.9% in Coming on the heels of an upward revision to 2014, the 2015 aftermarket sales is expected to exceed $256 billion. Growth should accelerate further in 2016 before cooling a bit in 2017 and Total aftermarket sales will reach $284 billion by The long term growth from 2015 to 2018 will be 3.5% annually. Retail sectors are expected to see the largest growth during the forecast period, increasing their share of overall sales by 0.3 points. Revenue through the dealer channels is expected to grow at a 3.4% annual rate, same as for the service channels. The service sector is forecast to top $100 billion in revenue in 2017 and reach $103 billion by The dealer channel will exceed $84 billion in 2018 while the retail sector will come in at just over $96 billion. 25

26 Contact Information Bailey Overman Senior Analyst Industry Analysis and Member Services Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) Office: Krysta Messier Analyst/Coordinator Industry Analysis and Member Services Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) Office: Shane Norton Director IHS Consulting Office: