The outlook for the Norwegian economy with particular focus on the business sector in Vesterålen

Transcription

1 The outlook for the Norwegian economy with particular focus on the business sector in Vesterålen Governor Svein Gjedrem Sortland, October Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and

2 Business Tendency Survey Labour shortages. Smoothed. Per cent. 9 Q Q Source: Statistics Norway Employment in cyclical upturns Developments after the beginning of a cyclical upturn. Index, quarter = 9 9 Q 99 Q Q - 9 Quarters 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and

3 Number of registered foreign workers from new EU accession countries. In thousands Q Jan-Aug Source: Central Office Foreign Tax Affairs 9 Unemployed In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. January 99 September LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes Sources: Statistics Norway and the Labour and Welfare Service

4 's regional network Region North: REGION NORTH- WEST, Møreforsking Molde REGION SOUTH- WEST IRIS Stavanger REGION NORTH Kunnskapsparken Bodø Bodø REGION CENTRAL NORWAY Senter for Økonomisk Forskning ved NTNU REGION INLAND Østlandsforskning Lillehammer REGION EAST REGION SOUTH Agderforskning Kristiansand Solid growth in demand and output High level of activity, increased capacity utilisation, limited supply of skilled workers Moderate growth in employment Solid profitability growth Source: Registered unemployment Vesterålen, North-Norway and nationwide Per cent. Seasonally adjusted Nationwide Vesterålen North-Norway 999 Sources: Labour and Welfare Service, Statistics Norway and

5 % % Public administration and other services Employment by industry Vesterålen, North-Norway and nationwide As a percentage of total employment ( Q) Nationwide Hele landet North-Norway Nord-Norge Vesterålen % % % Retail trade, hotel and restaurant Agriculture, forestry, Manufacturing fishing Construction Commercial services Transport, communications Financial services Utilities Extraction of oil and gas % Source: Statistics Norway Fish farming Production of salmon and trout. By county. tonnes. Preliminary figures. Nordland Hordaland Nord- Trøndelag Rogaland Finnmark Møre og Romsdal Sør- Trøndelag Sogn og Fjordane Troms Other counties Source: Statistics Norway

6 Prices for fresh farmed salmon NOK per kilo U U U U U U U Source: Statistics Norway Fisheries quantity of catch Sources: Statistics Norway and Directorate of Fisheries

7 Consumer prices (CPI) -month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Energy prices -month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway

8 - - - Consumer prices -month change. Per cent. July August Goods and services produced in Norway (.)* Imported consumer goods(.)* * s calculations jul. jan. jul. jan. jul. jan. jul. - - Sources: Statistics Norway and Growth in household real disposable income and consumption. Per cent Real income growth Real consumption growth Sources: Statistics Norway and

9 Electricity price NOK/MWh. January September. Forward prices Nov. Dec. October June Sources: Nord Pool and Housing market January September Housing starts (total over last months in thousands) House prices (NEF) (-month growth in percent) - - Sources: Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, ECON, Finn.no, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Statistics Norway 9

10 Credit growth -month growth. Per cent Non-financial corporations, Mainland Norway, C Households (C) - - Source: Oil price (Brent Blend) and futures prices USD per barrel. Daily figures. January September June (IR /) October 9 Sources: EcoWin, ICE, Reuters and

11 Average prices for crude oil and natural gas Gas price USD/Sm 99 Q Q Natural gas, average of Statoil and Hydro (left-hand scale) Oil price USD/barrel Oil price Brent Blend (right-hand scale) Gas price UK (left-hand scale) Norwegian exports of natural gas (left-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin, ICE, Statistics Norway, Statoil and Norsk Hydro Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas activities Assumed and actual investment. In billions of NOK 9 9 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Previous year Same year Final figures Source: Statistics Norway

12 Expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global In billions of -NOK. Annual figures. 9 Premium for forward price Expected real return (RNB ) Structural, non-oil deficit 9 Sources: Ministry of Finance (The Revised National Budget ) and International framework conditions GDP growth Volume growth in per cent on previous year. Actual and projected World China Interest rate expectations Actual developments and expected key rate from IR / and on September USA UK Euro-area Trading partners 999 Sweden sep. sep. sep. sep. sep. sep. sep.9 sep. Sources: Consensus Forecasts, IMF WEO,

13 -month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-) ) January December 9 I- (right-hand scale) September 9 Weighted interest rate June differential (IR /) (left-hand scale) - 9 ) Rising curve denotes appreciation of the krone Sources: Bloomberg and Baseline scenario Quarterly figures Source:

14 Baseline scenario with fan chart. Quarterly figures % % % 9% Source: The outlook for the Norwegian economy with particular focus on the business sector in Vesterålen Governor Svein Gjedrem Sortland, October