EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update August. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

Transcription

1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update August

2 Executive summary As is usual prices increase in August but the dichotomy between the oil region and especially Oslo widens further Volumes were slightly lower than last August, mostly due to a collapse in sales in Stavanger and a very low unsold stock in Oslo Year to date volumes remain on an All-Time high Year/Year growth in Oslo have now surpassed Tromsø Rogaland and Stavanger remains in negative territory Year/Year Unsold stock remains close to All Time low levels everywhere except in Rogaland - where it is on an All-Time high! Prices in Stavanger are now on the same levels as in mid

3 August the HPI up 2.5 percent 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted

4 Year/Year growth rate grows to 7,7%

5 Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: As the weather so goes the market the market was hot in August! Seasonally adjusted prices rose 1.1 percent Year/Year growth rate falls increases again to 7.7 percent This is the strongest August since 2009 Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 229,0 Change august ,5 % Change august ,6 % Change august ,9 % Change juli ,1 % Change juni ,1 % Year over Year 7,7 % 5 Years 34,6 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % Price Change since previous trough 16,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

6 The house price index, segmented by housing types

7 House prices by housing types Seasonal effect are large in July and August for Detached and terraced Terraced and Detached increases by 4.0 and 4.9 percent respectively All segments saw increasing prices Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 224,7 229,7 230,6 Change august ,9 % 4,0 % 1,1 % Change august ,6 % 1,7 % 1,1 % Change august ,7 % 3,6 % 1,2 % Change juli ,4 % -3,1 % 0,4 % Change juni ,3 % 0,1 % 0,4 % Year over Year 6,5 % 6,1 % 8,7 % 5 Years 29,2 % 29,1 % 38,8 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 15,9 % 12,5 % 17,0 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

8 House prices by selected counties

9 House prices by selected counties Probably due to seasonal effects Oslo is the weakest market in August Except for Oslo, Rogaland and Sør Trøndelag the weakest markets in August. Strongest market was Hedmark Year/Year Oslo still by far the strongest market and Rogaland still in negative territory Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 233,2 262,7 247,4 272,4 247,9 222,7 216,7 Change august ,7 % 2,5 % 2,1 % 2,1 % 3,2 % 2,8 % 3,2 % Change august ,3 % 1,6 % 1,6 % 1,3 % 1,9 % 1,4 % 2,0 % Change august ,2 % 2,2 % 2,0 % 2,0 % 2,7 % 1,8 % 2,8 % Change juli ,2 % -0,8 % -0,9 % -2,0 % -1,7 % -1,7 % -1,7 % Change juni ,7 % 0,2 % 0,0 % -0,9 % 0,2 % -0,4 % 0,3 % Year over Year 12,2 % 8,9 % 6,7 % -0,1 % 6,0 % 5,6 % 7,7 % 5 Years 44,5 % 38,2 % 42,2 % 23,7 % 36,2 % 13,1 % 28,6 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -2,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 19,9 % 18,5 % 14,9 % 5,1 % 16,2 % 12,4 % 17,7 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Although Oslo was the weakest market overall it is yet again the strongest market for apartments Stavanger continues to languish at the bottom, falling yet another month! Year over Year Oslo has now taken over the throne from Tromsø While Stavanger falls further into negative territory Prices in Stavanger is back to levels from 2012 Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 233,4 268,6 243,9 281,7 219,6 253,3 247,4 236,2 Change august ,5 % 1,1 % 0,7 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 0,9 % 0,7 % 1,3 % Change august ,2 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 0,7 % 0,7 % 2,2 % 1,4 % 1,4 % Change august ,0 % 1,7 % 1,3 % 0,8 % 0,8 % 2,3 % 1,2 % 1,7 % Change juli ,5 % 0,5 % 0,4 % -0,3 % 0,0 % 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,3 % Change juni ,8 % 0,4 % 0,1 % -0,9 % 0,1 % 0,0 % 0,6 % 0,1 % Year over Year 12,5 % 10,1 % 6,5 % -1,7 % 6,1 % 10,9 % 9,2 % 7,2 % 5 Years 45,6 % 42,9 % 43,6 % 23,3 % 11,3 % 52,4 % 51,6 % 42,0 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -4,6 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 75,8 % 77,1 % 80,0 % 54,8 % 31,1 % 75,8 % 83,3 % 63,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

12 Unsold stock

13 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

14 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

15 Age of inventory (unsold stock)

16 Volumes in August falling from last year

17 But year to date volumes remain on an All Time high

18 Time on the market

19 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

20 Sell/ask spread: 4.0 percent

21 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

22 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

23 Summary the sell-ask spread As is normal for August the sell/ask spread widened as bidding contests remained hot in most parts of the country Oslo is still the region with the highest spread Neither Stavanger nor Kristiansand sellers achieved their asking prices in August The average seller in Stavanger has not seen his asking prices for almost two years! Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø aug. 15 8,7 % 4,8 % 2,7 % -3,6 % -0,1 % 1,8 % 5,8 % 3,2 % Average 4,9 % 4,6 % 2,6 % 2,0 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,2 % 1,6 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % Date All time high ( ) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

24 Housing starts in Norway for July Source:SSB

25 12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

26 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices under - estimated by 0.6 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 0,0 % -1,0 % -2,0 % -3,0 % -4,0 % -5,0 %

27 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: [email protected] Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: [email protected] Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: [email protected]