Q Qatar Quarterly Monitor

Transcription

1 Q1 216 Qatar Quarterly Monitor

2 Asiya Research at a glance 2 Every month, we provide: 1) Macroeconomic outlook. 2) Analysis of all countries in Asia and GCC, and some key industrialized economies. 3) Trading developments on all major commodities. Francisco Quintana [email protected] Camille Accad [email protected] Karmen Meneses [email protected] Mahmoud Galal [email protected] Jordi Rof [email protected] Ahmad Al Nafisi [email protected] IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this report is prepared by the Research Department of Asiya Investments and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed herein are: 1) based on current market prices, data, and conditions; 2) subject to change without notice; and 3) may differ from the opinions expressed for other purposes or in other contexts by other areas of Asiya. Asiya does and seeks to do business in countries covered in its research reports; hence, investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interests that could affect the reports objectivity. Research recommendations do not constitute financial advice nor extend offers to participate in any specific investment on any particular terms. Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their decisions. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

3 Qatar: low energy prices are affecting Qatar s economic performance 3 Indicator f 217f Real GDP growth (YoY) IP growth (YoY) Exports (YoY) Imports (YoY) Trade balance (% of GDP) Money supply (YoY) Inflation (YoY) Current account (% of GDP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Government debt (% of GDP) USD: QAR Economy: business cycle in early contraction Growth: nominal GDP is registering a sharp decline due to lower oi prices. Real growth remained constant in 214. Fiscal surplus widened in 214, but estimates for 215 suggest fiscal balance deterioration. Gas and crude production remain at high levels, but lower prices are impacting public revenue. Liquidity conditions tightened, as interest rates rose and liquidity growth decelerated. Trade surplus narrowed driven by falling exports and constant imports growth. Banking activity strengthened, as credit growth accelerated. LTD ratio worsened slightly. Inflation: increased recently on higher education, energy and housing prices. 2. Markets: returns are weak. Stock market performance remains weak. Yearly returns in negative territory. 3. Risks: slowing global demand. Dependency on oil and gas. Exposure to geopolitical instability in the region. Source: *EIU, otherwise: EIU, IMF, and Asiya forecasts, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

4 Qatar: nominal GDP growth in contraction since Q Nominal GDP is experiencing a sharp decline. QA: Nominal GDP % chg, YoY Since 212 QR, bn Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 May 14 Nov 14 May 15 GDP (rhs) QoQ YoY Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Statistics Authority, 216. Investment contributed to hold real GDP growth in 214. % chg, YoY QA: Contribution to GDP growth Since Note: GDP growth in USD purchasing power parity basis. Source: Asiya Research on Oxford Economics & IMF, Government Consumption Investmnet Imports Exports PPP GDP Real GDP Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

5 5 Qatar: gas production remained at a record high Mining accounts for 5% of the whole economy. Gas production growth dropped to near zero in 214. Finance, insurance & real estate 11% QA: Sector of the economy Government services 1% 214 Other 2% Mining 5% QA: Natural gas production Since 26 % change cubic foot/day, bn Volume (rhs) YoY % Restaurants & hotels 7% Transport 4% Manufacturing 1% Construction 6% Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Statistics Authority, 216. Source: Asiya Research on British Petroleum, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

6 Qatar: Falling reserves suggest high production, but prices fell further 6 Gas reserves shrank further in 215. Price of natural gas continued to fall in Q3. QA: Natural gas volume Cubic foot/year, bn Since 26 Cubic foot, tn 1 1 Gas reserves (rhs) Gas production 9 9 Nov. 29 = 1 25 QA: Natural gas price Since Jan 14 Qatar LNG price index* Henry Hub natural gas index Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan Source: Asiya Research on EIA U.S., * Average price growth of shipments of LNG from Qatar to all available destinations, according to Waterborne Energy statistics Source: Asiya Research on Reuters & Waterborne, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

7 Qatar: low oil prices are affecting revenue, in spite of high production 7 Oil reserves grew in 214, production remains high. QA: Oil reserves Barrels / day, th Since 26 Barrels, bn U$/Bbl 14 The decline in oil prices continued. QA: Oil prices Since Oil production Crude oil reserves (rhs) 23 2 Brent crude oil OPEC oil basket 22 Feb 6 Aug 6 Feb 7 Aug 7 Feb 8 Aug 8 Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Source: Asiya Research on EIA U.S. and BP, 216 Source: Asiya Research on EIA U.S. and OPEC, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

8 Qatar: trade surplus narrowed on falling exports and rising imports 8 Trade surplus declining due to exports weakness. Developed markets remain the main export destination. %chg, yoy QA: Trade growth Since 213 USD, billion USD, billion 2 15 QA: Trade by type of partner Since 213 Developed excl. fuel exporters Emerging excl. fuel exporters To fuel exporters Exports Imports Trade balance (rhs) Exports Imports Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Source: Asiya Research on IMF, 216. Source: Asiya Research on IMF, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

9 Qatar: exports are weakening across the board 9 Exports to Asia and Europe are declining... QA: Contribution to export growth As of August, 215 US while imports from the G2 kept on rising. QA: Contribution to import growth As of August, 215 EZ Middle East Other Last 3 months Previous 3 months 5 yr average US Middle East Last 3 months Previous 3 months ASEAN India 5 yr average China China EZ NIE India ASEAN Japan Other NIE %pt, YoY Japan %pt, YoY Source: Asiya Research on IMF, 216. Source: Asiya Research on IMF, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

10 Qatar: headline inflation picked up, mainly on education and recreation 1 Inflation resumed growth in the last six months... QA: Inflation %chg, YoY Since mainly due to education, housing and recreation. QA: Contribution to inflation As of September, 215 Education Housing & utilities Transport Food & beverages 3 Furnishing 2 Communication Tobacco Last 3 months Previous 3 months 1 Headline inflation Health Miscellaneous Clothing 4 yr average Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Restaurants Recreation & culture %pt, YoY Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Statistics Authority, 216. Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Statistics Authority, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

11 11 Qatar: conditions are tightening in money markets Broader liquidity measures decelerated notably QA: Money supply and interbank rates increased. QA: Interbank rates %chg, YoY 5 Since % Since week 1 month M M1.5 3 Nov 13 May 14 M2 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15. Nov 13 May 14 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Central Bank, 216. Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Central Bank, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

12 Qatar: reserves started to decline, but they are still sizeable 12 Central bank reserves started to decline QA: Central bank reserves QAR bn Since Foreign securities Gold Reserve position IMF SDR holdings Foreign liabilities 12 as well as international reserves. QA: International reserves growth % of GDP Since International reserves 1yr avg. 1 YoY growth (rhs) %chg, YoY Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Central Bank, 216. Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Central Bank, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

13 Qatar: credit growth outpacing deposit growth 13 Deposits growth picked up notably leading to a deterioration of the LTD ratio. QA: Commercial bank loans & deposits %chg, YoY Since Commercial bank loans Commercial bank deposits % QA: Loans to deposits Since 213 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 1 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Central Bank, 216. Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Central Bank, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

14 Qatar: fiscal surplus widened on higher revenue 14 Estimates suggest surplus will deteriorate in 215. Development expenditure remained robust in QA: Fiscal Balance QR bn Since 1998 % of GDP Budget balance (rhs) Balance estimate* Revenue Expenditure Revenue estimate* Expenditure estimate* % of Since 1995 expenditure 4 Development expenditure (rhs) 35 Development 3 expenditure (% of total) 25 QA: Development expenditure QR bn * IMF estimates Source: Qatar Ministry of Finance and IMF, 216. Source: Asiya Research on Qatar Ministry of Finance, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

15 Qatar: QAR stabilized in trade weighted terms 15 QAR pegged to the USD. QA: Exchange rate USD, monthly avg. Since QAR stopped appreciating against other currencies. QA: Nominal effective exchange rate Jan. 21=1 Since Appreciation Appreciation Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Source: Asiya Research on Thomson Reuters, 216. Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Oct 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Oct 15 Note: The NEER is derived from the Trade Weighted USD Index, and calculated as a weighted average of the price of various currencies relative to the USD. Source: Asiya Research on IMF, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

16 16 Qatar: market performance remained weak Negative returns from Qatar stock market in yearly terms. Index 15, QA: Financial markets Since 213 %chg, YoY 6 14, 5 13, 4 12, 3 11, 2 1, 1 9, 8, 1 7, 6, Doha securities market [DSM] YoY change (rhs) 2 3 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Source: Asiya Research on Thomson Reuters, 216. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216

17 Asiya Research Contact Information 17 Asiya Research Asiya Investments KIPCO Tower, floor 31 Khalid Bin Al Waleed Street, Sharq Kuwait Tel: Fax: [email protected] Disclaimer Throughout this presentation ( Presentation ) Asiya Investments, our, we or us refers to the Asiya Group, comprising of a number of group entities including Asiya Capital Investments Company K.S.C.P. ( ACIC ), Asiya Asset Management (Cayman) Ltd. ( AAMC ), Asiya Investments Hong Kong Limited ( AIHK ) and Asiya Investments (Dubai) Limited ( AID ). Asiya Investments does not make any representations or give any warranties in relation to this report or presentation and disclaims all responsibility in relation thereto and for any consequences arising from the recipient investing in preferred shares of the proposed Fund ( Fund ) as a result of matters disclosed hereby. Investment involves risks and possible loss of principal. The value and income derived from investments may go down as well as up. The Fund may utilize short selling, which can result in substantial and possibly unlimited losses. The Fund may employ derivatives and leverage, which involve special risks. The Fund s shares may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on the Fund. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. The recipient should seek independent professional advice before investing in the proposed Fund as the presentation does not purport to provide all of the information the recipient may require to evaluate an investment in the proposed Fund. The information in this presentation is provided as is and as available and the accuracy or completeness of the statements, opinions and views have not been assured or warranted. Actual results could also differ materially. The past investment performance is not indicative of future results of an investment. Neither Asiya Investments, nor their related entities, affiliates or officers guarantee or make any representations as to the success of the proposed investment programme, nor as to the economic return or target return mentioned in this presentation. This presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any preferred shares. Any further distribution or reproduction of this document, in whole or in part, or the divulgence of any of its contents, is prohibited. ACIC is an Investment Company regulated by the Capital Markets Authority ( CMA ) and Central Bank of Kuwait ( CBK ) in Kuwait; AAMC is licensed as a Securities Manager and Securities Advisor under Section 6(2) of the Securities Investment Business Law (211 Revision) and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority ( CIMA ), AID is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority ( DFSA ) and AIHK is a Licensed Corporation (CE Number: AZD395) under Section 116 of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) ("SFO") for carrying on Type 4 "Advising on Securities" and Type 9 "Asset Management" regulated activities and is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong ("SFC"). Pursuant to its license, AIHK provides services to Professional Investors solely and does not hold client assets (both defined under the SFO). AIHK is also a registered investment adviser (CRD Number: ) with the US Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ). The CMA, CBK, CIMA, SFC, SEC and DFSA have not reviewed and approved this or any other of our marketing documents. The risk factors associated with the Fund are set out in the relevant Fund Prospectus and these should be read and understood before making any investment decisions. A copy of the relevant Fund Prospectus can be obtained from us upon request. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorized financial advisor. This Investor Presentation is intended for and is accessible to only eligible investors as defined in the Fund s Prospectus. As such, this Presentation is intended for Professional and Market Counterparty Clients, as defined in the DFSA s Conduct of Business Rules ( COB ) and Professional Investors as defined under the SFO and subsidiary legislation in Hong Kong and therefore is not directed at,and must not,be delivered or relied uponby,a retail client. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216