EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update July. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

Transcription

1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update July

2 Executive summary The market cooled off further and fell by 1.1 percent. Seasonally adjusted this was a fall of 0.3 percent Volumes were low, in fact the lowest since the financial crisis. Probably due to very low unsold stock in June and the fact that very little new is put on the market in July Year to date volumes remain on an All-Time high The dichotomy between Oslo and the rest of the country is getting bigger and bigger with the market in Oslo outperforming on almost every parameter. Stavanger and Rogaland is now falling Year/Year The sell/ask spread narrowed For yet another months unsold stock remains close to All Time low levels everywhere except in Rogaland - where it is on an All-Time high!

3 The market fell in July the HPI down 1.1 percent

4 Year/Year growth rate falls to 6,8%

5 Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: The market cools off for another month falling by 1.1 percent Seasonally adjusted prices were also down, marking a fall of 0.3 percent. This is the fist time in 17 months that prices have fallen seasonally adjusted Year/Year growth rate also falls reaching 6.8 percent Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 223,4 Change juli ,1 % Change juli ,1 % Change juli ,3 % Change juni ,1 % Change mai ,3 % Year over Year 6,8 % 5 Years 33,9 % Price Change since previous all time high -1,3 % Price Change since previous trough 13,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

6 The house price index, segmented by housing types

7 House prices by housing types Strongest segment in July was apartments Apartments are growing at more than double speed of the other segments. This is probably due to the fact that most apartments are located in strongly performing areas Both detached and terraced saw significant falls. Some of it probably due to seasonal factors, but this was one of the weakest Julys in a long time Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 214,1 220,9 228,1 Change juli ,4 % -3,1 % 0,4 % Change juli ,6 % -0,1 % 0,6 % Change juli ,2 % -3,8 % -0,3 % Change juni ,3 % 0,1 % 0,4 % Change mai ,6 % -0,4 % -0,1 % Year over Year 4,1 % 3,7 % 8,7 % 5 Years 25,6 % 27,1 % 39,9 % Price Change since previous all time high -4,2 % -3,4 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 10,4 % 8,2 % 15,8 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

8 House prices by selected counties falling everywhere except in Oslo

9 House prices by selected counties Oslo was yet again the strongest region and the only region with an increase in prices And for yet another month Rogaland is the weakest market Year over year Rogaland is now experiencing falling prices while Oslo is growing at over 10 percent Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 229,2 256,4 242,4 266,7 240,3 216,6 210,0 Change juli ,2 % -0,8 % -0,9 % -2,0 % -1,7 % -1,7 % -1,7 % Change juli ,5 % 0,2 % 0,2 % -0,2 % -0,2 % 0,1 % -0,3 % Change juli ,7 % -1,2 % -1,0 % -1,8 % -1,2 % -1,9 % -1,5 % Change juni ,7 % 0,2 % 0,0 % -0,9 % 0,2 % -0,4 % 0,3 % Change mai ,2 % -0,2 % -0,4 % -1,1 % -0,4 % -0,3 % -0,4 % Year over Year 11,7 % 8,0 % 6,2 % -0,9 % 4,7 % 4,2 % 6,5 % 5 Years 44,7 % 37,8 % 42,4 % 23,8 % 35,0 % 12,1 % 26,7 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % -0,9 % -1,3 % -4,0 % -1,9 % -2,4 % -1,8 % Price Change since previous Trough 17,8 % 15,6 % 12,6 % 2,9 % 12,6 % 9,4 % 14,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Oslo was yet again the strongest performing big city but this time the top spot was shared with Bergen Stavanger continues to be significantly weaker than the other big cities Year/Year basis the growth in Oslo is catching up to the top performer Tromsø however Year/Year growth in Tromsø remains strong. Bergen is the third strongest Year/Year Stavanger is now in negative territory on a Year/Year basis Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 230,0 265,5 242,3 282,0 217,7 251,1 245,7 233,3 Change juli ,5 % 0,5 % 0,4 % -0,3 % 0,0 % 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,3 % Change juli ,6 % 0,7 % 0,5 % 0,3 % 0,8 % 1,4 % 0,6 % 0,8 % Change juli ,4 % -0,2 % -0,1 % -0,5 % -0,6 % 0,2 % -0,1 % -0,1 % Change juni ,8 % 0,4 % 0,1 % -0,9 % 0,1 % 0,0 % 0,6 % 0,1 % Change mai ,2 % 0,0 % -0,3 % -1,0 % -0,2 % -0,1 % 0,2 % -0,1 % Year over Year 12,2 % 10,2 % 6,9 % -0,9 % 5,9 % 12,4 % 10,0 % 7,3 % 5 Years 46,1 % 44,2 % 45,7 % 26,5 % 12,2 % 54,2 % 54,0 % 42,2 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -4,5 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 73,2 % 75,1 % 78,8 % 54,9 % 30,0 % 74,3 % 82,1 % 61,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

12 Unsold stock

13 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

14 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

15 Age of inventory (unsold stock)

16 Volumes in July falling from last year

17 But year to date volumes remain on an All Time high

18 Time on the market

19 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

20 Sell/ask spread: 1.7 percent Narrowing as is usual in July

21 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

22 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

23 Summary the sell-ask spread The sell/ask spread narrowed considerably but probably mostly due to seasonal factors The spread in Oslo set a new All-Time high Oslo now has more than twice as wide spread as any of the other cities For yet another month sellers in Stavanger had to accept prices below their asking prices and the negative spread widened significantly For the first time in 2015 sellers also in Kristiansand had to accept bids below their asking prices Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway jul ,6 % 4,7 % 3,0 % -3,6 % -1,6 % 0,6 % 1,5 % 2,9 % 1,7 % Average 4,9 % 4,6 % 2,6 % 2,1 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,2 % 1,5 % 2,2 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % 6,2 % Date All time high ( ) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 aug. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % -5,8 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

24 Housing starts in Norway for June Source:SSB

25 12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

26 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices over-estimated by 1,0 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 0,0 % -1,0 % -2,0 % -3,0 % -4,0 % -5,0 %

27 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: [email protected] Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: [email protected] Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: [email protected]