EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update November. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

Transcription

1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update November

2 Executive summary Prices increased in November by 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted the HPI increased by 1.1 percent Volumes were higher than last year, but a good deal below the All Time highs from 2010,11 After falling for two months in a row the Year/year growth rate increases to 6.0 percent Oslo remains the strongest market and the underperformance of Stavanger is getting bigger and bigger Due to seasonal factors little new supply is put on the market in November and December, unsold stock decreased For yet another month the 12 month rolling rate of housing starts continued grow

3 November The market grows by 0.4 percent 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted

4 Year/Year growth rate increas modestly to 6.0 percent

5 The Nowegian Housing Price Statistics summary: After falling for two months in a row the market returned to growth This is the strongest November in three years Year/Year growth rate rebounds modestly from 5.6 to 6.0 percent On a seasonally adjusted basis the market grew strongly Table 1. Summary The Nowegian Housing Price Statistics Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 225,3 Change november ,4 % Change november ,0 % Change november ,3 % Change oktober ,2 % Change september ,9 % Year over Year 6,0 % 5 Years 31,5 % Price Change since previous all time high -1,6 % Price Change since previous trough 14,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

6 The Nowegian Housing Price Index, segmented by housing types

7 House prices by housing types Apartments by far the strongest segment Both detached and terraced housing recorded marginal falls Year/Year apartmetns significantly stronger than deatched and terraced probably reflecting the strength in Oslo, the biggest market for apartments Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 219,0 226,8 227,6 Change november ,1 % -0,1 % 0,8 % Change november ,6 % -0,5 % 0,5 % Change november ,5 % -1,6 % -1,2 % Change oktober ,8 % -0,3 % -1,1 % Change september ,7 % -0,9 % -1,0 % Year over Year 5,5 % 5,0 % 6,4 % 5 Years 26,0 % 27,2 % 35,5 % Price Change since previous all time high -2,5 % -1,3 % -1,3 % Price Change since previous Trough 13,0 % 11,1 % 15,5 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

8 House prices by selected counties

9 House prices by selected counties Rogaland the the weakest region yet again falling by 0.4 percent Most regions saw increasing prices Oslo yet again the strongest market growing by 0.9 percent Year/Year growth rate in Oslo returned to two digits, reaching 10.0 percent Rogaland now 6.1 percent below the All Time high Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 232,0 257,3 242,7 261,0 243,5 217,4 212,3 Change november ,9 % 0,2 % 0,3 % -0,4 % 0,1 % 0,1 % 0,5 % Change november ,7 % 0,1 % 0,1 % -0,5 % 0,1 % -0,4 % -0,4 % Change november ,5 % -1,2 % -1,2 % -1,7 % -1,4 % -1,3 % -1,1 % Change oktober ,9 % -1,3 % -1,2 % -2,0 % -1,0 % -1,2 % -1,5 % Change september ,6 % -1,0 % -1,0 % -1,7 % -0,9 % -1,3 % -1,0 % Year over Year 10,0 % 6,5 % 4,7 % -2,5 % 4,8 % 3,7 % 6,0 % 5 Years 42,1 % 33,8 % 37,9 % 16,8 % 32,1 % 10,4 % 25,8 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,5 % -2,0 % -1,9 % -6,1 % -1,8 % -2,4 % -2,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 19,3 % 16,1 % 12,7 % 0,7 % 14,1 % 9,7 % 15,4 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Oslo poutperforms againg both in November and Year/Year Drammen a city close to Oslo is the second strongest market both in November and Year/Year Stavanger is still by far the weakest market approaching a 10 percent fall Year/Year All other cities are in positive territory Year/Year and for the month Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 232,4 262,3 239,2 268,5 215,2 247,2 245,6 231,8 Change november ,0 % 0,3 % 0,6 % -0,5 % 0,5 % 0,6 % 0,8 % 0,5 % Change november ,8 % 0,6 % 0,3 % -0,2 % 0,2 % 0,7 % 0,4 % 0,9 % Change november ,5 % -1,1 % -1,2 % -1,4 % -1,5 % -0,5 % -0,8 % -1,3 % Change oktober ,9 % -1,5 % -1,3 % -2,0 % -0,9 % -1,8 % -0,5 % -1,2 % Change september ,6 % -1,2 % -1,3 % -2,2 % -1,6 % -1,3 % -1,0 % -1,2 % Year over Year 10,2 % 6,3 % 4,1 % -5,0 % 3,8 % 5,7 % 7,4 % 4,1 % 5 Years 43,3 % 37,4 % 38,5 % 14,6 % 8,6 % 50,0 % 48,1 % 38,9 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,5 % -2,3 % -1,9 % -9,1 % -2,0 % -2,4 % -0,7 % -1,9 % Price Change since previous Trough 75,0 % 73,0 % 76,5 % 47,5 % 28,5 % 71,6 % 82,0 % 60,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

12 Unsold stock

13 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

14 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

15 Age of inventory (unsold stock)

16 Volumes in November

17 Year to date volumes

18 Time on the market

19 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

20 Sell/ask spread: remains at 2.0 percent

21 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

22 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

23 Summary the sell-ask spread The sell/ask spread remains at 2 percent Oslo is still the region with the highest spread and together with Drammen the only two cities which saw a slight strengthening of the bidding contests Every other region saw spreads moving further in a negative direction The Average sellers in Tromsø, Kristiansand and Stavanger continues to accept bids below their asking prices The spread in Bergen is closing up on zero Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway nov. 15 6,9 % 1,6 % 1,5 % -4,5 % -1,9 % -2,6 % 3,7 % 1,4 % 2,0 % Average 4,9 % 4,5 % 2,6 % 1,9 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,3 % 1,6 % 2,2 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % 6,2 % Date All time high ( ) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 aug. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % -5,8 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

24 Housing starts in Norway for October Source:SSB

25 12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

26 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices under - estimated by 1.3 %

27 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: post@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: saa@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: al@eiendomsverdi.no