Outlook for the Norwegian business sector and the role of Norges Bank

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1 Outlook for the Norwegian business sector and the role of Norges Bank Central Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem Kongsvinger, March Effective exchange rates 199= NOK 11 1 GBP NZD SEK Source: EcoWin

2 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US Index Per cent Standard & Poor s (left-hand scale) 1-year rates (right-hand scale) Source: EcoWin Krone exchange rate and the interest rate differential Per cent Index 9 Interest rate differential (left-hand scale) Krone exchange rate, TWI (right-hand scale) Source: Norges Bank

3 Krone exchange rate and US equity prices Krone exchange rate (left-hand scale) 11 9 Equity prices (right-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank Relative labour costs Deviation from historical average. Per cent 1 1 January Common currency Sources: TRCIS/IMF, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

4 Relative labour costs January Local currency 1 9 Common currency Sources: TRCIS/IMF, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Cyclical divergence Short-term interest rates in the US and Norway Norway 8 US Source: EcoWin

5 The real interest rate Per cent Average Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Relationships in monetary policy Exchange rate Imported price inflation Norges Bank s interest rates Consumer price inflation Consumption Investment Employment Output Wages and margins

6 Unemployment Per cent Registered plus labour market programmes LFS unemployment Average 199s Sources: Public Employment Service, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Wage shares Labour costs as a percentage of factor income Manufacturing Other mainland industries Sources: TRCIS og Statistics Norway

7 GDP growth abroad Percentage change from previous year.,, (IR /)* (IR 1/)* 1, 1, US Japan Euro area Trading partners Source: Norges Bank *) Projections at different times Change in employment from previous year Unemployment 1) as a percentage of the labour force Employed (right-hand scale) Unemployment rate (left-hand scale) 1) Registered unemployed Source: Statistics Norway, Public Employment Service and Norges Bank

8 Unemployment Percentage of the labour force. February Norway Akershus S. og Fjord Oppland Buskerud Hedmark Troms Vestfold M. og Rogaland Østfold Hordaland Nordland S. Trøndelag N.Trøndelag Telemark Oslo V. Agder A. Agder Finnmark Source: Public Employment Service 1 Change in unemployment by occupational category 1) Dec. 1- Dec. (blue), Jan. Jan. (green) and Feb. Feb. (red) Manufacturing Sales Other services Construction Administration Science-related Health and care Commercial Teaching Transport Agric., forestry and fish ) In addition the item "specified / no occupational background" has risen by 7 persons. Source: Public Employment Service

9 Employment by industry Hedmark and country as a whole Percentage of total employment (1) Country as a whole Hedmark 1 Public admin. and other services Source: Statistics Norway Retail trade, Manuf. hotel and etc. restaurant Constru ction Agric., forestry, fish. Commer cial serv. Transport, communic ations Financ. serv. Electricit y, gas and water supply Exports of traditional goods Per cent of total exports of traditional goods. January Finnmark Troms N. Trøndelag A. Agder Hedmark S. Trøndelag Akershus Oppland Oslo Nordland Buskerud Østfold Telemark S. og Fjord Vestfold M. og Romsd V. Agder Rogaland Hordaland Source: Statistics Norway 8 1 1

10 Industrial confidence indicator. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index 1) ) Values below zero indicate that the majority of the industrial leaders expect weaker developments the coming three months Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank New orders. Manufacturing Value indices. 199=1. Domestic Exports Source: Statistics Norway

11 Electricity prices Index 1 January 1998 = Spot prices incl. taxes and grid rental Jan. Jul. Jan.1 Jul.1 Jan. Jul. Jan. *Electricity (including grid rental) accounts for approx..% of the CPI Sources: Statistics Norway, Nord Pool, Viken Energi and Norges Bank Electricity price index in the CPI* 1 Consumer confidence indicator Unadjusted figures and trend 1 Trend 1-1 Unadjusted Source: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS, Norwegian Savings Banks Association

12 Credit from domestic sources (C) and house prices 1-month rise. Per cent 1 Non-financial enterprises Households House prices Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, FINN.no, ECON and Norges Bank Projections for main macroeconomic aggregates Percentage change from previous year Private consumption Public consumption Fixed investment Petroleum investment Traditional exports Source: Norges Bank

13 GDP - Mainland Norway Percentage change from previous year Actual Projection IR 1/ Source: Norges Bank Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) Total and distributed by supplier sector. 1-month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE - Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

14 Norges Bank's monetary policy meeting of March Norges Bank reduced the interest rate from. per cent to. per cent. According to Norges Bank's assessment, with an interest rate of. per cent, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be lower than ½ per cent is greater than the probability that it will be higher.

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