Status og utsikter for norsk sokkel

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1 Status og utsikter for norsk sokkel Marknadskreftene rår «Oljetrykket» Seminar i regi av DNB og Næringsforeningen i Stavanger-regionen Stavanger, 2. mars 214 Klaus Mohn, professor of petroleum economics UiS homepage,

2 An intriguing industry Geology, technology, economics, and politics

3 The oil price matters for consumer, producers, and politicians Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl (212 prices) 4-fold increase since 2 Late level 2 times historical avg. Impact on demand Income effect Substitution effect Impact on supply Conventionals (exploration, development, production) Unconventionals New technologies Policy response Source: Reuters EcoWin, Rystad Energy.

4 The oil price matters for consumer, producers, and politicians Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl (212 prices) fold increase since Russia Late level 2 times historical avg. Europe Impact North on demand America 3 25 South America Income effect Africa Substitution Middle Easteffect 2 Impact Asia on supply 15 1 Offshore supply services by global region, USD bn (nominal) Australia Conventionals (exploration, development, production) Unconventionals 5 New technologies Policy response Source: Reuters EcoWin, Rystad Energy.

5 The oil price matters for NCS activity, production, revenues and costs NCS oil and gas investments and the oil price (NOK bn; USD/bbl) Pipeline transport Onshore processing Producing fields Field development Exploration Oil price (USD/bbl) NCS oil and gas production and the oil price (mmboe/day; USD/bb) Produced Oil price (212 USD, rhs) Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Reuters EcoWin.

6 The oil price matters for NPD expectations Outlook for NCS oil and gas production NPD forecast by year of release (mboepd) Outlook for NCS oil and gas production NPD forecast by year of release (mboepd) 22 production (mmboepd) Average annual growth (%) Actual Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

7 A booming sector has significant repercussions to the mainland economy 2 15 Demand from the petroleum sector Ratio to mainland GDP (%) Goods input Investment Labour cost 2 15 Competitive position under pressure Wages per hour, manufacturing industries Source: Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance. Norway Belgium Sweden Denmark France Germany Finland Netherland Austria Ireland Italy Spain UK Czech R Poland

8 Employment across the country Regional variation in petroleum exposure Petroleum-related employment 212 Total: ~ 22 persons Sub-suppliers Suppliers Processing Oil companies 1 5 Kilder: Statistics Norway, Vatne (27), Konkraft-rapport nr. 7 ( Rystad Energy (213).

9 The easy barrels are gone Costly quest: Structural shift in the pipeline

10 Unimpressive shareholder returns Source: Statoil.com

11 Investment choked by financial markets Where NPV may fail, Cash will prevail From disappointment to disbelief: Production falls short of promises Planning prices are up, but so are costs Reality bites: the comfort zone is narrowing Source: Enskilda Securities (Oil companies E&P budgets, 2 August 213).

12 Oil boom arrested by market concerns Increasing focus on cash-flow management and capital discipline Equity market in disbelief Production short of targets Sky-rocketing costs Leaking profits Return on capital employed for major oil companies Erosion of returns Investors worry for price outlook Weak economic growth New floods of supplies Policy uncertainty looms Business model under pressure Scarcity and access dilemmas «Carbon bubble» challenge Cash is King! Source: Citigroup (chart)

13 The Statoil example Cash flow 213 Source: Statoil (3Q 213 presentation of financial results).

14 Statoil s revised capex plans Tracing the NCS activity impact: A thought experiment 14 Capex and cash NOK bn 35 Capex cut dilution,.. NOK bn and NCS re-leverage NOK bn 12 Capex Statoil share Capex Divest INT NCS Source: Statoil (3Q 213 presentation of financial results).

15 Industry changes and challenges A race between scarcity and innovation Innovation and cooperation Changes in OPEC behaviour Uncertainty over gas prospects Break-up of monopoly in transport Quality in capital allocation Re-direction to Asia Energy and climate policies Source: Mitchell, John, Marcel, Valerie and Beth Mitchell «What next for the oil and gas industry?». Chatham House. October 212.

16 Concluding remarks Build resilience, prepare for change Uncertain outlook Brent blend prices) Energy is getting more expensive Oil price outlook extremely opaque Gas prices will converge, gradually The oil price matters for activity Boom arrested by market concerns New shocks and cycles in the cards IOC business model under pressure

17 Status og utsikter for norsk sokkel Takk for oppmerksomheten «Oljetrykket» Seminar i regi av DNB og Næringsforeningen i Stavanger-regionen Stavanger, 2. mars 214 Klaus Mohn, professor of petroleum economics UiS homepage,

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