Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent

Transcription

1 The outlook for the Norwegian economy and the business sector in southwestern Norway Governor Svein Gjedrem Vats, October Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and

2 Business climate index Resource shortages. Smoothed. Per cent. Q 9 Q Source: Statistics Norway Employment in cyclical upturns Development after the beginning of cyclical upturns. Index, quarter = 9 Q 9 Q 99 Q - 9 Quarters 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and

3 Number of registered foreign workers from new EU countries. In thousands Q Jan-Aug Source: Central Office Foreign Tax Affairs 9 7 Unemployed In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. January 99 September LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour 9 7

4 Employment by industry. Hordaland, Rogaland and nationwide. As a percentage of total employment ( Q) % % Public administration and other services Nationwide Rogaland Hordaland % % Retail trade, hotel and restaurant Manufacturing % Construction Agriculture, forestry, fishing Commercial services Transport, communications Financial services Utilities Extraction of oil and gas % Source: Statistics Norway 's regional network REGION NORDVEST Møreforsking Molde Molde REGION SØRVEST IRIS Stavanger REGION SØR Agderforskning Kristiansand REGION NORD Kunnskapsparken Bodø Bodø REGION MIDT-NORGE Senter for Økonomisk Forskning ved NTNU REGION INNLAND Østlandsforskning Lillehammer REGION ØST Region South-West: Solid growth, high level of activity Positive outlook for all sectors Increased employment and higher wage growth Solid profitability growth Source:

5 Fish farming Production of salmon and trout. By county. tonnes. Preliminary figures. Hordaland Nordland Sør- Trøndelag Møre og Romsdal Rogaland Nord- Trøndelag Troms Sogn og Fjordane Finnmark Øvrige fylker Source: Statistics Norway Prices for fresh farmed salmon NOK per kilo U U U U U U U Source: Statistics Norway

6 Registered unemployment Hordaland, Rogaland and nationwide. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted Hordaland Rogaland Nationwide 999 Sources: Arbeids- og velferdsetaten, Statistics Norway and Consumer prices (CPI) -month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway

7 Energy prices -month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Consumer prices -month change. Percent. July August Goods and services produced in Norway (,7)* Imported consumer goods(,)* * s calculations Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- - Sources: Statistics Norway and 7

8 Growth in household real disposable income and consumption. Per cent Real income growth Real consumption growth Sources: Statistics Norway and Electricity price NOK/MWh. January September. Forward prices Q Q 7 September June 7 7 Sources: Nord Pool and

9 Housing market January August Housing starts (total over last months in thousands) House prices (NEF) (-month growth in percent) - - Sources: Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, ECON, Finn.no, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Statistics Norway Credit growth -month growth. Per cent Total credit to non-financial corporations, Mainland-Norway, K Households Total credit Mainland-Norway, (K) - - Source: 9

10 Oil price (Brent Blend) and futures prices in USD per barrel. Daily figures. January September 7 June (IR /) September Sources: EcoWin, ICE, Reuters and Average prices for crude oil and natural gas Gas price USD/Sm Q 997 Q Natural gas, average of Statoil and Hydro (left-hand scale) Oil price USD/barrel 7 Oil price Brent Blend (right-hand scale) Gas price UK (left-hand scale) Norwegian exports of natural gas (left-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin, ICE, Statistisk sentralbyrå, Statoil and Norsk Hydro

11 Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas activities Assumed and actual investment. In billions of NOK May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Previous year Same year Final figures Source: Statistics Norway Expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global In billions of -NOK. Annual figures. 9 Premium for forward price Expected real return (RNB ) Structural, non-oil deficit 7 9 Sources: Ministry of Finance (The Revised National Budget ) and

12 International framework conditions GDP growth Volume growth in per cent on previous year. Actual and projected China World Interest rate expectations Actual developments and expected key rate from IR / and on September USA Storbritannia Eurosonen Trading partners Sverige Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep-7 Sep- Sep-9 Sep- Sources: Consensus Forecasts, IMF WEO, Commodity prices USD. Indices. January =. Daily figures. January - September Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Source: Reuters EcoWin

13 -month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-) ) January December 9 I- (right-hand scale) 9 Average September September 9 97 Weighted interest rate June differential (IR /) (left-hand scale) ) Rising curve equals appreciation Sources: Bloomberg and Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report / The interest rate may gradually in small, not too frequent steps be brought back towards a more normal level. The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval ¾ - ¾ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on November, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections.

14 Baseline scenario Quarterly numbers Source: Baseline scenario with fan chart. Quarterly figures 7 % % 7% 9% Source: