Business cycles, monetary policy and property markets Governor Svein Gjedrem Næringseiendom April 2005

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1 Business cycles, monetary policy and property markets Governor Svein Gjedrem Næringseiendom 5 April 5 Projected consumer price inflation 5-year horizon. Annual rise. Per cent Employers organisations Employees organisations Experts Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Bergen April 5 Source: TNS Gallup

2 Interest rates and inflation Per cent Market rate Real interest rate Neutral real interest rate Inflation Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and Krone exchange rate and interest rate differential against trading partners Percentage points Index Krone exchange rate (right-hand scale) Interest rate differential (left-hand scale) Bergen April 5 Source:

3 Demand Average quarterly growth (annualised) through Q. Per cent Last 7 quarters Last quarters Private cons. Public cons. Mainland invest. Petroleum invest. Exp. trad. goods Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 5 Commercial building starts Utility floor space. Index. = Six-month moving average. Jun 99 Feb 5 5 Oslo and Akershus Total 5 Hordaland Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway

4 Commercial building starts Utility floor space. Index. = Six-month moving average. Jun 99 Feb Hotels and restaurants (%) 5 Wholesale and retail trade (9%) 5 5 Property management, commercial services and rental sectors (7.5%) Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway 7 Vacant office premises in Oslo area and Bergen Per cent of total property stock. Annual figures Oslo, Asker and Bærum Bergen Bergen April 5 Sources: Eiendomsspar AS and DnB NOR Næringsmegling

5 Price index for office and commercial properties Price per square metre. = Rent for office premises Price per square metre. Kroner per year Bergen Trondheim Oslo, good standard Stavanger Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway Source: Dagens Næringslivs eiendomsindeks 9 Total return Commercial property. Per cent. Annual figures. Average. Norway Sweden Denmark UK Germany Bergen April 5 Source: Investment Property Databank 5

6 Property share of total assets in insurance companies Per cent Vital Forsikring Storebrand Liv KLP Forsikring 999 Bergen April 5 Source: Companies annual reports Housing investment and housing starts Seasonally adjusted. Q Q 9 5 Housing starts, number (right-hand scale) 7 Housing investment, in millions of -NOK (left-hand scale) 5 Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

7 International house prices index Quarterly figures. 95 Q = UK 5 Norway 5 Sweden 5 US 5 Germany ) 5 ) Germany: Annual figures. Estimates from Deutsche Bundesbank based on data from BulwienGesa AG Japan Bergen April 5 Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank, EcoWin and Output, employment and productivity Average quarterly growth (annualised) through Q. Per cent 5 Last 7 quarters Last quarters 5 Mainland GDP Employed persons Person-hours worked Productivity Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 7

8 Rise in prices and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy Per cent Rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway Capacity utilisation Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 5 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector. -month change. Per cent. Jan Mar Bergen April 5 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Actual IR / 5 Contribution to the decline in CPI-ATE inflation from Dec. Percentage points. Jan Mar 5,5 -,5 - -,5 - -,5 Imported consumer goods House rents Remainder Other services - 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

9 Harmonised indices of consumer prices in the Nordic countries and the euro area. -month change. Per cent. Jan Mar 5 Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Euro area Bergen April 5 Source: Eurostat 7 GDP growth among trading partners Real growth on previous year. Actual and forecasts China ) World ) 5 trading partners ) Bergen April 5 ) Source: Consensus Forecasts ) Source: 9

10 Chinese imports of crude oil and oil price Monthly imports in millions of tonnes. Oil price, USD/barrel. -month moving average 5 5 Chinese imports of aluminium and aluminium prices Monthly imports in thousands of tonnes. Aluminium price in USD/tonne. -month moving average 5 Chinese imports, aluminium (right-hand scale) Oil price (left-hand scale) 9 Chinese imports of crude oil (right-hand scale) Spot price aluminium (left-hand scale) Bergen April 5 Sources: EcoWin, National Bureau of Statistics and 9 Oil price in USD/barrel (Brent Blend) Forward prices from Oct, Mar 5 and 9 Apr Daily figures. Jan Dec April IR IR Bergen April 5 Sources:, Telerate and IPE

11 Spare capacity for OPEC Million barrels per day. Annual figures 7 Monthly figures Bergen April 5 Sources: EIA (annual figures) and IEA (monthly figures) Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas recovery incl. pipeline transport Estimated and actual investments. In billions of NOK 5 The petroleum sector Production in industries supplying goods and services to the petroleum sector Regional network. 5. Index ) M A N F M A N actual Estimate made previous year Estimate made same year - ) A positive index value indicates increased activity - 5 Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and s regional network

12 Wage growth -quarter change. Per cent Euro area UK Japan External price impulses US Sweden Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency Annual figures. Per cent Bergen April 5 Sources: EcoWin and -month money market rate and exchange rate in IR /5 Quarterly figures. Per cent. Q Q 5 Interest rate (left-hand scale) 9 Import-weighted exchange rate (right-hand scale) Bergen April 5 9 Source:

13 Real growth in household disposable income ) and consumption Annual figures. Per cent. 99 Real income growth Real growth in consumption ) Adjusted for extraordinary share dividends since Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 5 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap in IR /5 Quarterly figures. Per cent. Q Q CPI-ATE - Output gap Bergen April 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

14 's monetary policy meeting of April 5 s Executive Board decided today to leave the interest rate unchanged. The Executive Board weighed the objective of bringing inflation back to target and stable inflation expectations against the risk that output growth may eventually be too high. Bergen April 5 7

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