EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update April. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

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1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update April

2 Executive summary The housing market in Norway in April grew 1.4 percent, reaching a new all-time high level on a nominal basis Seasonally adjusted the market grew 0.6 percent Year/year growth now at 5.8 percent, increasing from last month Volumes was higher than earlier years, this is primarily an Easter effect. The bidding process in Oslo is heating up. Sell-ask spread has never been higher, now at 11.3 percent Unsold stock in Rogaland remains high

3 April up 1.4 percent up 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted

4 Year/Year growth 5.8 percent

5 The Norwegian Housing Price Statistics summary: The prices increased by 1.4 percent nominally to a new all-time high On a seasonally adjusted basis the prices grew 0.6 percent Nominal prices where higher than the average for April historically (2003 basis) Year/year growth has been increasing since February and is now at 5.8 percent Table 1. Summary The Nowegian Housing Price Statistics Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 239,3 Change April-16 1,4 % Change April-15 1,3 % Change April-14 1,3 % Change March-16 1,9 % Change February-16 0,2 % Year over Year 5,8 % 5 Years 31,8 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % Price Change since previous trough 21,3 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

6 The Nowegian Housing Price Statistics, segmented by housing types

7 House prices by housing types All property types grew, with detached houses experiencing the highest growth Thus, all property types are now at record high levels Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 233,6 240,3 241,3 Change April-16 1,7 % 1,2 % 1,3 % Change April-15 1,3 % 2,2 % 1,1 % Change April-14 1,5 % 0,4 % 1,5 % Change March-16 1,9 % 2,4 % 1,8 % Change February-16-0,2 % -0,6 % 0,6 % Year over Year 4,5 % 5,1 % 6,5 % 5 Years 28,0 % 26,9 % 34,8 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 20,5 % 17,7 % 22,5 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

8 House prices by county

9 House prices by selected counties Hedmark outperformed other counties, even Oslo, with a monthly growth rate at 2.1 percent In year/year growth rate however, Oslo is still the strongest in Norway at 10.5 percent Rogaland grew 0.2 percent, but are still at a year/year growth rate on -4.3 percent Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 250,6 267,4 256,1 265,9 259,5 226,6 228,0 Change April-16 2,0 % 0,7 % 1,1 % 0,2 % 1,5 % 1,2 % 2,1 % Change April-15 1,4 % 1,5 % 1,3 % 0,7 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 1,2 % Change April-14 1,2 % 1,5 % 1,3 % 0,9 % 1,6 % 1,1 % 1,4 % Change March-16 2,3 % 1,3 % 1,9 % 0,9 % 2,2 % 1,3 % 2,0 % Change February-16 0,9 % -0,2 % 0,0 % -0,7 % 0,1 % -0,5 % 0,1 % Year over Year 10,5 % 3,4 % 4,3 % -4,3 % 5,9 % 2,0 % 6,6 % 5 Years 43,7 % 30,4 % 36,1 % 10,7 % 33,3 % 9,4 % 29,4 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -4,3 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 28,8 % 20,6 % 19,0 % 2,6 % 21,6 % 14,4 % 23,9 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Oslo was yet again the strongest market for apartments, with a monthly growth rate of 2.0 percent Oslo outperformed other major cities Year/Year, with Drammen and Bodø following Year/Year growth rate for apartments in Stavanger fell after a short incline last month Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 250,8 269,9 250,5 266,5 222,1 255,7 262,5 247,0 Change April-16 2,0 % 0,5 % 0,9 % -0,3 % 0,9 % 0,6 % 1,5 % 1,5 % Change April-15 1,4 % 1,3 % 1,1 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 1,4 % 1,4 % 1,1 % Change April-14 1,3 % 1,7 % 1,2 % 1,0 % 1,3 % 2,3 % 1,1 % 2,1 % Change March-16 2,2 % 0,9 % 1,6 % 0,1 % 1,1 % 1,5 % 1,7 % 2,3 % Change February-16 1,0 % 0,0 % 0,1 % -0,6 % -0,2 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 0,4 % Year over Year 10,7 % 2,5 % 3,5 % -7,6 % 2,0 % 2,4 % 8,0 % 6,2 % 5 Years 44,7 % 31,8 % 34,7 % 5,0 % 6,4 % 48,6 % 48,0 % 41,2 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -9,7 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 29,2 % 20,4 % 16,7 % -2,7 % 13,9 % 29,6 % 23,6 % 25,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

12 Unsold stock

13 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

14 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

15 Age of inventory (unsold stock)

16 Volumes in April

17 Year to date volumes

18 Time on market (sold)

19 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

20 Sell/ask spread: increased to 4.3 percent

21 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

22 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

23 Summary the sell-ask spread Oslo reached an all time high at 11.3%. The last top was in July 2015 Although all major cities except Bodø had a more positive spread for April, Kristiansand and Stavanger are still in negative territory The spread in Stavanger was reduced to -4.0 percent Table 5. Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price April-16 Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway 11,3 % 3,7 % 3,7 % -4,0 % -0,3 % 1,2 % 5,6 % 2,8 % 4,3 % Average 5,1 % 4,4 % 2,6 % 1,6 % 1,2 % -0,5 % 2,4 % 1,6 % 2,3 % All-time high 11,3 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % 6,2 % Date All time high ( ) apr. 16 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 aug. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % -5,8 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

24 Housing starts in Norway for March Source:SSB

25 12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

26 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices under-estimated by 0.9 percent

27 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: Housing Research Audun H. Sjøli Tel: Housing Research Anders Lund Tel:

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