THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, 3 OCTOBER 2014

Transcription

1 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, OCTOBER

2 Norges Bank is the central bank of Norway «It devolves upon the Storting to supervise the monetary affairs of the Realm» The Constitution of Norway 8, Article 7 c June 8: Norges Bank established by the Storting (Norwegian parliament)

3 The central bank s responsibilities Price stability Payment systems Financial stability

4 Norges Bank Executive Board Governor (Chair) Deputy Governor (Deputy Chair) Supervisory Council Office of the Supervisory Council Norges Bank Central Banking Operations Norges Bank Investment Management General Secretariat Financial Stability Markets and Banking Services Monetary Policy Corporate and Shared Services

5 Flexible inflation targeting Low and stable inflation.% Stability in output and employment Flexible inflation targeting

6 The financial crisis gave new lessons Low inflation is not sufficient to prevent financial crises Financial crises are costly Banking system regulation must be improved

7 Mixed picture abroad GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index. 8 Q = 8 8 Euro area Germany Sweden Italy UK US Spain France Japan Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 7

8 Stronger growth in emerging economies GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index. 8 Q = US UK 9 8 Source: Thomson Reuters Euro area Emerging economies¹) ) GDP-weighted average (PPP) of Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. 9 8

9 Low policy rates abroad Policy rates. Percent 7 US Euro area UK Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 9

10 Long-term interest rates have fallen Yields on -year government bonds. Percent 8 7 Source: Bloomberg Germany Italy Spain UK US 8 7

11 External influences on the Norwegian economy Growth abroad Policy rates abroad Inflation abroad Commodity prices Norwegian exports Krone exchange rate Imported inflation Labour mobility Employment

12 Petroleum investment Actual and projections from MPR /. Constant prices. In billions of NOK Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

13 Regional network: growth in production Preceding months and expected growth following months. Annualised. Percent Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Commercial services 8 Source: Norges Bank Domestically oriented manufacturing Export industry Oil industry suppliers

14 Exports from Region South Share of exports from mainland Norway produced in Region South. January August. Percent Total goods Food Commodities Fuel Manufactured goods Source: Statistics Norway

15 Industry structure Value-added by sector South Norway Fishing and aquaculture Manufacturing Ocean transport Electricity and water supply General government Construction Wholesale, retail trade and various services Other, including agriculture Source: Statistics Norway, regional accounts

16 Unemployment Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted¹) Aust-Agder Vest-Agder Norway Telemark Vestfold ) Figures by county are seasonally adjusted by Norges Bank. Sources: NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Statistics Norway

17 Renewed rise in house prices Twelve-month change. Percent Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder Vest-Agder Norway Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi - - 7

18 Inflation close to. percent Actual and projections from MPR /. Four-quarter change. Percent CPI-ATE¹) (left hand scale) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Projections for Q 7 Q. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

19 Inflation and output gap Actual and projections from MPR /. Percent CPI-ATE¹) (left hand scale) Output gap (right hand scale) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Projections for Q 7 Q. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

20 Continued low key policy rate Actual and projections from MPR /. Percent 7 % % 7% 9% 8 7 Source: Norges Bank

21 Residential mortgage lending rates Percent Key policy rate Residential mortgage rate¹) Estimated cost of mortgage financing²) ) The interest rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway. ) Estimated using weighted interest rates on covered bonds outstanding and weighted deposit rates. Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

22 Stricter capital requirements for banks Common Equity Tier capital ratio Maximum countercyclical buffer Countercyclical buffer Buffer for systemically important banks Other requirements Seven largest banks Dec Dec Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Dec. Jul Jul.. Jul 8

23 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, OCTOBER