Oljen og norsk økonomi
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1 Oljen og norsk økonomi Etter festen kjem testen Klaus Mohn, Professor University of Stavanger Business School Frokostseminar, Samfunnsøkonomene Oslo, 13 May 215 1
2 Oil and the Norwegian economy Will Norway escape the Dutch Disease? Resource revenues appreciate the real exchange rate Erosion of competitiveness Crowd-out of manufacturing Aggravates the cost of (structural) re-adjustment Two channels of transmission Spending effect Resource movement effect 2 Source: Mohn (215). Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality. Working Paper. University of Stavanger. January 215.
3 Oil and the Norwegian economy An industry that makes a difference Three special characteristics Norway is a small economy with a large petroleum sector, and high domestic deliveries High attention on spending effects Fund mechanism and fiscal policy rule Less concern for resource movement effects Re-direction of Norwegian industries Macroeconomic key figures 213 Oil and gas share in GDP 22 per cent Government revenue 29 per cent Total export 49 per cent Total fixed capex 31 per cent 3 Source: Mohn (215). Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality. Working Paper. University of Stavanger. January 215.
4 Oil and the Norwegian economy Forget anything, but bear in mind that The oil price matters The nature of the oil shock matters Market imperfections matter Resource scarcity matters 4
5 The oil price matters for investment 15 Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl prices) Global oil investment and the oil price (USD bn; USD bbl (21)) Source: International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. April 215.
6 The oil price matters for investment Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl (@212 prices) NCS oil and gas investments and the oil price (NOK bn (nom); USD/bbl) Pipeline transport De-commisioning Onshore processing Producing fields Field development Exploration Oil price (USD/bbl) Source: International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. April 215. Statistics Norway.
7 The oil price matters for investment and for production Oil investment response to an oil price drop Impulse response in per cent (elasticity) Oil production response to a 1% drop in investment (elasticity) 7 Source: International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. April 215.
8 The oil price matters for production Oil and gas investments and the oil price (NOK bn; USD/bbl) Pipeline transport De-commisioning Onshore processing Producing fields Field development Exploration Oil price (USD/bbl) feed into the production outlook MM boepd; USD/bbl (rhs) Source: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.
9 The oil price matters for revenues 15 Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl prices) 3 Net cash-flow, budget deficit, and expected GPF return Ratios to non-oil GDP (%) Net cash flow from oil and gas Structural deficit Expected GPF return Source: International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. April 215.
10 The great plunge in oil prices Deepest drop since 28, and hardly as temporary, or (?) 1
11 The great plunge in oil prices Causes, consequences, and policy responses Developments in demand and supply Changes in OPEC objectives Geopolitical developments Appreciation of the USD Speculative demand and investory management 11 Source: World Bank (215). The great plunge in oil prices. Causes, consequences, and policy responses. Policy Research Note 15/1. March.
12 The great plunge in oil prices The nature of the oil price shock is decisive for its impact 15 Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl prices) The source of the shock Demand Supply Persistence Temporary shock (cyclical) Permanent shock (structural)
13 Persistence The great plunge in oil prices The nature of the oil price shock is decisive for its impact 15 Oil price review Brent blend, USD/bbl prices) Classification of oil price shocks by shock origin and persistence Negative shocks Positive shocks Demand surge 214 Shale shock 1999 Recovery Gulf crisis Mini recession 28 Financial crisis Relative importance of demand 13
14 The great plunge in oil prices Largely supply-driven, but not entirely The recent oil price shock Supply and demand factors 14 Source: World Bank (215). The great plunge in oil prices. Causes, consequences, and policy responses. Policy Research Note 15/1. March.
15 Oil industry in distress Pressures were building ahead of the oil price plunge November 213 April Sources: Mohn, K Kva skjer med oljeinvesteringane? Samfunnsøkonomen 2/214, 1-14.
16 Oil industry in distress Short-term challenge: Profitability and investment returns 2 1 Mixed success Growth and profitability among major oils (%) RoACE Annual production growth Disappointed shareholders Returns eroded by spending, cost escalation, and oil price stagnation Diverging market views and valuations Disputed business model Scarcity and access Stranded assets 16 *Sources: Deutsche Bank, UBS Warburg.
17 Oil industry in distress Longer term challenge: Growth Constraints on access and supply Proven oil and gas reserves by global region Constraints on demand Policies, preferences, and prices Middle East 48 % Africa 8 % Latin America 19 % Asia 3 % EE/Eurasia 8 % Asia Oceania % Europe 1 % Americas 13 % 17 Source: IEA (214). World Energy Outlook.
18 A case for cash as an investment driver Market imperfection: Agency costs of free cash-flow Jensen, M. (1986) Agency cost of FCF... AER 76(2) Jensen, M. (1988) Takeovers: JEP 2(1) Mohn and Misund (211) Shifting sentiments AFE 21 Mohn, K. (215) Dagens Næringsliv 7 January 18
19 A case for cash as an investment driver Statoil s cash disposal 214 (NOK bn) 19 Source:
20 A case for cash as an investment driver Lower investment will dampen activities and costs European oil majors Capex plans (USD bn) Shell BP Total Statoil ENI BG Group Prepared to use material flexibility Statoil, 6 February Sources: Platts, Company reports.
21 NCS investment outlook Point of departure: Norges Bank March 215 forecast (adjusted) NCS investment by category , NOK bn (214 prices) Decommisioning Pipelines and onshore Producing fields Field development Exploration NCS investment and the oil price 22 outlook (NOK bn; USD/bbl) Investment Oil price Source: Norges Bank Pengepolitisk rapport no 1. March 215 (historical figures). Author s calculations (outlook).
22 NCS investment outlook A scenario exercise 12 Oil price scenarios (USD/bbl, 214 prices) 25 NCS investment scenarios (NOK bn, 214 prices) Reference Rapid recovery Sluggish slowdown 5 Reference 1 USD/fat 6 USD/fat Source: Norges Bank Pengepolitisk rapport no 1. March 215 (historical figures). Author s calculations (outlook).
23 Reflections on policy response depends on the nature of the oil price shock Return scenarios for GPFG 1) Ratios to mainland GDP (%) The degree of aggressiveness Optimal policy mix Monetary policies Fiscal policies Industrial policies Stabilisation vs re-adjustment 23
24 Key takeaways Forget anything, but bear in mind that The oil price matters The nature of the oil shock matters Market imperfections matter Resource scarcity matters 24
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