Monetary policy, inflation and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Transcription

1 Monetary policy, inflation and the outlook for the Norwegian economy DnB, Haugesund Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank, April Effective exchange rates January 99= GBP NOK 9 8 NZD SEK Source: EcoWin

2 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US Index Per cent 9 8 -year rate (right-hand scale) Standard & Poor s 5 (left-hand scale) Source: EcoWin A war economy Index. January = 5 5 Swiss franc (left-hand scale) 5 95 Gold (righthand scale) Oil (right-hand scale) September Resolution War in Iraq begins Source: EcoWin

3 Stocks of crude oil in the US Million barrels. Weekly figures 5 Strategic reserves Commercial stocks Highest and lowest value last five years 8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: US Department of Energy Oil production in Iraq and Venezuela Million barrels per day Annual figures Monthly figures Iraq Venezuela Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Sources: Energy Information Agency and Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

4 5 Value of oil and gas exports from the Norwegian continental shelf. 99- Billion kroner Natural gas Crude oil Source: Statistics Norway Oil price and Norwegian export price for natural gas converted to USD per barrel (oil equivalents) USD/barrel o.e. Brent Blend Norwegian gas for export Sources: Statistics Norway, International Petroleum Exchange and Eureka

5 Billion Sm 8 Estimate of demand and production of natural gas in the UK 8 5 Demand Production Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate The krone exchange rate and the interest rate differential Per cent Index 5 9 Interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 95 Krone exchange rate (TWI, right-hand scale) Source: Norges Bank

6 The krone exchange rate (TWI) and equity prices in the US 5 5 TWI (left-hand scale) Equity prices (right-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank Cyclical divergence Short-term interest rates in the US and Norway 8 Norway 8 US Source: Norges Bank

7 Interest rate expectations in the US Actual developments and expected key rate Key rate July Oct. 7 April 999 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank Interest rate expectations in the euro area Actual developments and expected key rate Key rate July Oct. 7 April 999 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

8 Business sentiment indicator Seasonally adjusted diffusion index*) *) Values below zero indicate that the majority of the industrial leaders expect weaker developments the coming three months Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Number of bankruptcy petitions Change from one year earlier Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Source: Statistics Norway

9 New orders, manufacturing Value index 995= 5 5 Domestic 5 5 Export Source: Statistics Norway New orders, transport equipment industry Value index 995= 5 (9) () Source: Statistics Norway

10 Relative labour costs, manufacturing Index 99 = Local currency 9 Common currency Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank's regional network Region North Kunnskapsparken Bodø Region North-West Møreforskning Molde Region South-West Rogalandsforskning Region Central Norway Allforsk in Trondheim Region Inland Østlandsforskning Region East Covered by Norges Bank Region South Agderforskning

11 % Publ. admin. and other services Employment by industry Rogaland and country as a whole Percentage of total employment (Q ) % Norway Rogaland % % % Retail trade, hotel and restaurant Manufacturing Source: Statistics Norway Transport, communications Construction Agriculture forestry, fish Commercial services Financial services Electricity, gas and water supply Extraction of crude oil and natural gas Exports of traditional goods Per cent of total exports of traditional goods. February Finnmark Troms A. Agder N. Trøndelag Hedmark S. Trøndelag Oppland Akershus Oslo Sogn og Fj. Nordland Østfold Telemark Buskerud V. Agder Vestfold Møre og R. Rogaland Hordaland 8 Source: Statistics Norway

12 Unemployment Per cent av labour force. March Norway Oppland Akershus Sogn og Fj. Buskerud Hedmark Troms Vestfold Møre og R. Rogaland Østfold Hordaland Nordland N.Trøndelag V. Agder S. Trøndelag Telemark Oslo A. Agder Finnmark 5 Source: Public Employment Service Mainland GDP Percentage change from previous year. Alternative scenarios 5 5 Forward interest rate and forward exchange rate Baseline scenario Source: Norges Bank

13 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) -month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE - Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) Alternative scenarios. -month rise. Per cent CPI-ATE Forward interest rate and forward exchange rate Baseline scenario Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank